The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mochida: A Katrina-Level Storm in Florida Will Bankrupt Property Insurers
“But when the next Hurricane Katrina happens in, you know, Florida, for example, then insurance is just going to be insolvent in many ways.”
Koki Mochida May 31, 2025 ▶ 2:44:44 Weekend Special: Elon Recap, Balaji, Chris Dixon, Brian Armstrong, Crypto Day + Thiel Fellows
Prediction Not checkable as stated
A Katrina-Scale Hurricane Hitting Florida Will Trigger Mass Insurer Insolvency
“But when a next Hurricane Katrina happens in, you know, Florida, for example, then insurance is just going to be insolvent in many ways.”
Koki Mochida May 28, 2025 ▶ 2:17:27 We Interviewed the New Thiel Fellow Dropouts
Assertion Partly supported
Mochida: ML Weather Models Cut Costs 99% and Increase Resolution 100x
“With machine learning, what you're able to do is reduce costs by 99% and increase resolution by a hundred times.”
Koki Mochida May 31, 2025 ▶ 2:37:48 Weekend Special: Elon Recap, Balaji, Chris Dixon, Brian Armstrong, Crypto Day + Thiel Fellows
Assertion Partly supported
Machine Learning Cuts Weather Compute Costs 99% and Boosts Resolution 100x
“With machine learning, what you're able to do is reduce costs by 99% and increase resolution by a hundred times.”
Koki Mochida May 28, 2025 ▶ 2:10:31 We Interviewed the New Thiel Fellow Dropouts
Assertion Supported
One Hurricane Holds Enough Energy to Power the US for Months
“And if you can, you know, harness it properly, you can power the United States for months and months just from one hurricane.”
Koki Mochida May 28, 2025 ▶ 2:11:56 We Interviewed the New Thiel Fellow Dropouts
Assertion Supported
Mochida: Energy in One Hurricane Could Power US for Months
“And if you can, you know, harness it properly, you can power the United States for months and months just from one hurricane.”
Koki Mochida May 31, 2025 ▶ 2:39:13 Weekend Special: Elon Recap, Balaji, Chris Dixon, Brian Armstrong, Crypto Day + Thiel Fellows
Assertion Contradicted
US Cyclone Insurance Premiums Reached $140B, Doubling Annually in Coastal Cities
“Like there's about like a hundred forty billion dollars per year in insurance premiums issued in the U S for like tropical cyclones. And yet like insurance premiums have doubled every single year for the last, you know, four or five years in many coastal citie…”
Koki Mochida May 28, 2025 ▶ 2:17:00 We Interviewed the New Thiel Fellow Dropouts
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