why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gedmark: First nation to reach lunar south pole ice will own it
“And whoever gets there first and really decides we're going to actually We're not just going to plant a flag. We're going to apply. We're going to put down a fence base and we're going to say this is our lunar property. Like whoever does at first they there's,…”
Assertion Supported
Astranis's Taiwan satellite will provide backup if undersea cables are cut
“It will actually have a couple of different, you know, it will be able to provide service on the island, but it will also be able to be a relay to locations off the island in the case that all their fiber lines are cut.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2028
Gedmark: Astranis will likely use orbital transfer vehicles with Starship
“Well, it'll, it will I believe it is, is heavily Leo optimized. So using it, we will most likely, it's not strictly necessary. We don't have to do this, but we will most likely want to use one of these orbital transfer vehicles.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gedmark: China has zero division between military, civil, and commercial space
“There's, they have no, you know, not only do they have coordination, I mean, there's just no divisions at all between their military space, civil space, and even their commercial space. It's all just one big industry Blob of activity that's, you know, we can't…”
Assertion Supported
Gedmark: Astranis has signed commercial contracts for over 10 satellites
“Now, you know, fast forward today, we've signed contracts for, you know, more than more than 10 of these satellites commercially.”
Assertion Supported
Gedmark: $15B of Large Satellites Launch to GEO Annually
“There's about fifteen billion dollars worth of these satellite, large satellites launched to Geo and other high orbits every year.”
Assertion Supported
Gedmark: Commercial GEO Satellites Cost Hundreds of Millions, Military Over $1B
“Really for the commercial side is in this like few hundred million range.
And then on the military side, the satellites cost over a billion dollars per satellite.
Sometimes multiple billions.
Per satellite.”
Assertion Supported
Gedmark: DoD buys Astranis's standard commercial satellites to lower costs
“Where we've seen interest from the DOD, it is actually also for these same satellites off of that same production line. They are very interested in this dual use type of scenario where they actually get to benefit from all the private capital that we've raised…”