The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: Space data centers will be the world's most important development
“I think the most important thing that's going to happen in the world in the next Three to four years is data centers in space.”
Gavin Baker Dec 10, 2025 ▶ 22:05 Paramount’s Deal Playbook, Trump Opens Nvidia’s China Door, Saudis Loosen Drinking Laws | Diet TBPN
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: Cooling space data centers is virtually free via dark-side radiators
“In space, cooling is free. You just put a radiator on the dark side of the satellite, and it's as close to absolute zero as you can get. So all that goes away, and that is a vast amount of cost.”
Gavin Baker Dec 10, 2025 ▶ 23:11 Paramount’s Deal Playbook, Trump Opens Nvidia’s China Door, Saudis Loosen Drinking Laws | Diet TBPN
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2031
Baker: Sovereign AI Outside the US Will Rely on Fine-Tuned Open Source
“Yeah, so I think what sovereign AI will look like for essentially all countries really other than the United States and China, although I think China is going to fall further and further behind, is just some sort of, you do, you use you know, you use one of th…”
Gavin Baker Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 22:39 Gavin Baker: SpaceX Might Be the Greatest Company of All Time
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: China's Distillation Edge Vanishes if US Labs Halt Open Releases
“They've gotten really, really good at that, but man, all that goes away if people stop releasing these models at the frontier, and I think mythos is a side of things to come there.”
Gavin Baker Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 24:48 Gavin Baker: SpaceX Might Be the Greatest Company of All Time
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: SpaceX Could Become the British East India Company of Space
“If SpaceX puts a city on, on the moon and then Mars, and enables, you know, becomes the British East City Company, the solar system, I think this will, those, there's a lot of hard engineering that needs to happen to go into all that. This will probably be the…”
Gavin Baker Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 28:59 Gavin Baker: SpaceX Might Be the Greatest Company of All Time
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: Social Media Accounts Are Pumping Micro-Cap AI Stocks by 1,000%
“And then post about, you know, outline your thesis in a thirty-five million dollar market cap company and send it up like a thousand percent. And there's a lot of that going on.”
Gavin Baker Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 31:10 Gavin Baker: SpaceX Might Be the Greatest Company of All Time
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Baker: Terrestrial Physical Computing Infrastructure Assets Will Appreciate in Value
“Installed atoms on earth, I think are going to appreciate and value.”
Gavin Baker Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 8:04 Gavin Baker: SpaceX Might Be the Greatest Company of All Time
Assertion Open · timeframe Jun 2026
Baker: Over 10,000 Employees Bought Shares During the SpaceX IPO
“I think another really underappreciated thing about the SpaceX IPO is that over 10,000 SpaceX employees bought on the IPO.”
Gavin Baker Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 14:51 Gavin Baker: SpaceX Might Be the Greatest Company of All Time
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: Laser-linked orbital satellites network faster than Earth data centers
“The only thing faster than a laser going through a fiber optic cable is a laser going through absolute vacuum. So if you can link these satellites in space together using lasers, you actually have a faster and more coherent network than in a data center on Ear…”
Gavin Baker Dec 10, 2025 ▶ 23:34 Paramount’s Deal Playbook, Trump Opens Nvidia’s China Door, Saudis Loosen Drinking Laws | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Baker: Jensen Huang Says xAI Deploys Data Centers Faster Than Anyone
“And we know from Jensen that they bring on data centers faster than anyone else, per Jensen's words.”
Gavin Baker Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 2:39 Gavin Baker: SpaceX Might Be the Greatest Company of All Time
Assertion Supported
Baker: Cursor Is Now Deployed in Half of Fortune 500 Companies
“I do think cursor being in, you know, half the Fortune 500 is interesting.”
Gavin Baker Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 4:16 Gavin Baker: SpaceX Might Be the Greatest Company of All Time
Assertion Contradicted
Baker: Meta Privately Tells Investors It Will Not Monetize GPUs Externally
“Right now Facebook is, you know, Meta is telling investors there's like no chance that we're gonna, you know, monetize GPUs externally.”
Gavin Baker Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 10:38 Gavin Baker: SpaceX Might Be the Greatest Company of All Time
Assertion Supported
Baker: SpaceX Offered Employee Secondary Liquidity Every Six Months for 10 Years
“If you're an employee, or even if you're an investor who has an SPV or you're directly on the cap table, you've had a chance to sell every six months for the last 10 years.”
Gavin Baker Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 15:17 Gavin Baker: SpaceX Might Be the Greatest Company of All Time
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