The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 22 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Baker: Space data centers will be the world's most important development
“I think the most important thing that's going to happen in the world in the next Three to four years is data centers in space.”
Baker: Cooling space data centers is virtually free via dark-side radiators
“In space, cooling is free. You just put a radiator on the dark side of the satellite, and it's as close to absolute zero as you can get. So all that goes away, and that is a vast amount of cost.”
Baker: AI Token Factories Will Not Need AWS-Style Cloud Suites
“My thought is that being a token factory is more than enough for the next five to 10 years.”
Baker: OpenAI Cut Codex Prices to Bootstrap Recursive Self-Improvement Loops
“I think that's why OpenAI is cutting codex pricing, simply because coding, you know, coding tokens are so valuable, and if you don't have enough of them, you may not be able to get into this RSI loop that, that everyone is, you know,”
Baker: Sovereign AI Outside the US Will Rely on Fine-Tuned Open Source
“Yeah, so I think what sovereign AI will look like for essentially all countries really other than the United States and China, although I think China is going to fall further and further behind, is just some sort of, you do, you use you know, you use one of th…”
Baker: China's Distillation Edge Vanishes if US Labs Halt Open Releases
“They've gotten really, really good at that, but man, all that goes away if people stop releasing these models at the frontier, and I think mythos is a side of things to come there.”
Baker: SpaceX Could Become the British East India Company of Space
“If SpaceX puts a city on, on the moon and then Mars, and enables, you know, becomes the British East City Company, the solar system, I think this will, those, there's a lot of hard engineering that needs to happen to go into all that. This will probably be the…”
Baker: Social Media Accounts Are Pumping Micro-Cap AI Stocks by 1,000%
“And then post about, you know, outline your thesis in a thirty-five million dollar market cap company and send it up like a thousand percent. And there's a lot of that going on.”
Baker: Public Markets Tolerate Heavy Capital Investment Better Than VCs
“I do think the public market has a much greater tolerance for investment and a much longer time horizon than a lot of people in the venture ecosystem. Give it credit for it.”
Baker: Terrestrial Physical Computing Infrastructure Assets Will Appreciate in Value
“Installed atoms on earth, I think are going to appreciate and value.”
Baker: Market Skepticism on Meta Monetizing Its AI Infrastructure Is Warranted
“It just suggests that the market has an immense amount of skepticism about their ability to monetize their own asset base. And I think that's warranted given that all we've really got out of management is this concept of personal super intelligence.”
Baker: Retail Investors Outperform the Vast Majority of Professional Money Managers
“Like, I think retail is probably outperforming the overwhelming majority of professional money managers, whether they're, you know, private equity managers, venture, you know, public equity managers, whatever.”
Baker: Over 10,000 Employees Bought Shares During the SpaceX IPO
“I think another really underappreciated thing about the SpaceX IPO is that over 10,000 SpaceX employees bought on the IPO.”
Baker: CDNs Currently Deliver Under 1% of Global AI Tokens
“My gut is in terms of tokens consumed on planet Earth, these CDNs are delivering less than one percent of them, and I mean, maybe less than 10 basis points.”
Baker: The AI Supply Chain Bottleneck Trade Is Nearing Its End
“I do think the bottledeck bros as they are called, are this, like, bottledeck trade is kind of nearing its end.”
Baker: China's Domestic AI Chips Cannot Compete With Leading American Hardware
“You know, they have this crazy belief that, oh, you know, our own internal chips are good enough. They're not.”
Baker: Laser-linked orbital satellites network faster than Earth data centers
“The only thing faster than a laser going through a fiber optic cable is a laser going through absolute vacuum. So if you can link these satellites in space together using lasers, you actually have a faster and more coherent network than in a data center on Ear…”
Baker: Jensen Huang Says xAI Deploys Data Centers Faster Than Anyone
“And we know from Jensen that they bring on data centers faster than anyone else, per Jensen's words.”
Baker: Cursor Is Now Deployed in Half of Fortune 500 Companies
“I do think cursor being in, you know, half the Fortune 500 is interesting.”
Baker: Meta Privately Tells Investors It Will Not Monetize GPUs Externally
“Right now Facebook is, you know, Meta is telling investors there's like no chance that we're gonna, you know, monetize GPUs externally.”