The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
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Randle: Frontier AI token price declines will slow down dramatically
“There's going to be a very, very large set of tasks that models do that are not on the frontier. And those are going to continue to get dirt cheap. I actually think that at the frontier, you're probably going to see continued price decreases on a per token bas…”
Randle: ChatGPT drives the majority of industry foundation model revenue
“The majority of all of that, or at least the plurality of all of that is ChatGPT. And ChatGPT, even though it is served by a foundation model company, is an application. It is a consumer subscription that has an immense amount of power. It has an immense amoun…”
Randle: AI Revenue Quality Could Exceed SaaS When Monetizing Like Labor
“I do think as some customers crack these agentic products that look and Monetize more like labor. AI revenue could actually exceed the quality of SAS revenue just because you're getting so much more gross profit per customer or like customer relationship than …”
Randle: Top-tier scale startups can raise practically unlimited private capital
“And the asset class has grown so much that if you're an amazing company, Compounding your intrinsic value at 25, 30% a year at scale, you can raise practically unlimited capital.”
Randle: Databricks can make pre-revenue acquisitions that would crush Snowflake's stock
“The main one, or one of the main ones is that you can be a lot more aggressive on M&A. You know, Databricks, for example, you know, bought this company, Tabular. I think the reported valuation was two billion, and it was also reported that they were either pre…”
Randle: The best startups delay IPOs to compound private valuations longer
“It's almost like the better the company, the longer they wait to IPO because they can be private, you know, again, compounding their value at 30 plus percent IRRs for much, much longer than they used to.”
Randle: Private market founders can wait out economic turmoil before exiting
“Something like economic turmoil that happens today If you're investing in the venture asset class, isn't going to necessarily impact like your exit because ultimately the founders and the board and the management team have some control over when they exit. And…”
Randle: Neil Mehta's track record proves power law dominates growth VC
“If you look at someone like Neil Mehta's track record, it's like, is his hit rate, like, 90%? No, there's, like, a ton of flame outs in there. But he's just invested in situations where he's put, you know, 400 in and gotten five billion out. And it turns out, …”
Randle: 2010s SaaS Faced Much Lower Competition Than Today's Software
“The competitive intensity of SaaS during the twenty-tens was much, much, much lower than it is today. Like during the twenty-tens, there was an entire crop of companies in the 2000, but then especially in the twenty-tens, you could basically pick either a vert…”
Randle: Institutionalization of VC will drive a surge in continuation vehicles
“As venture kind of becomes more, more institutionalized we're gonna see a lot more of them, for sure.”
Randle: Conway's Law forces VC firms to invest their org chart
“Conway's law exists for venture firms for sure, which means that you like, you invest your org chart. And it's like very hard to you know, have an investment strategy or a portfolio construction strategy. That doesn't match the size and kind of scope of your t…”
Randle: Mega-funds like a16z and Lightspeed replaced Tiger in VC platformization
“Instead of Tiger, you know, continuing to be this large platform, you now have like four other platforms that were actually established in those days of 20, 21. And so it's like, okay, yeah, like you don't have Tiger, But like, how big is Andreessen's last fun…”