Kleiner Perkins partner Everett Randle explains how the multi-year duration of venture capital insulates startup exits from short-term macroeconomic turmoil.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Randle: Frontier AI token price declines will slow down dramatically
“There's going to be a very, very large set of tasks that models do that are not on the frontier. And those are going to continue to get dirt cheap. I actually think that at the frontier, you're probably going to see continued price decreases on a per token bas…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Randle: ChatGPT drives the majority of industry foundation model revenue
“The majority of all of that, or at least the plurality of all of that is ChatGPT. And ChatGPT, even though it is served by a foundation model company, is an application. It is a consumer subscription that has an immense amount of power. It has an immense amoun…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Randle: AI Revenue Quality Could Exceed SaaS When Monetizing Like Labor
“I do think as some customers crack these agentic products that look and Monetize more like labor. AI revenue could actually exceed the quality of SAS revenue just because you're getting so much more gross profit per customer or like customer relationship than …”
Insight
Randle: Top-tier scale startups can raise practically unlimited private capital
“And the asset class has grown so much that if you're an amazing company, Compounding your intrinsic value at 25, 30% a year at scale, you can raise practically unlimited capital.”
Insight
Randle: Databricks can make pre-revenue acquisitions that would crush Snowflake's stock
“The main one, or one of the main ones is that you can be a lot more aggressive on M&A. You know, Databricks, for example, you know, bought this company, Tabular. I think the reported valuation was two billion, and it was also reported that they were either pre…”
Insight
Randle: The best startups delay IPOs to compound private valuations longer
“It's almost like the better the company, the longer they wait to IPO because they can be private, you know, again, compounding their value at 30 plus percent IRRs for much, much longer than they used to.”