The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 162 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Asparouhov: Roughly 80% of major S&P 500 drawdowns occur October to February
“The past, like, you know, sort of 50 years of the steepest drawdowns of the S&P 500, something like 80% of them happened between, like, October and February.”
Giffon: VC dollars deployed grew 10x over past decade
“Venture is 10 X in terms of dollars deployed in the last 10 years.”
Nikola Saw $27 Million in Trading Volume on Its Bankruptcy Day
“It's crazy on public. They have, there's been twenty seven million dollars of volume today.”
Coogan: LVMH Spends 10x More on Tiffany Stores Than Prior Owners
“LVMH is spending 10 times more on Tiffany stores than its previous owners and more than twice as much on marketing.”
Andreessen Horowitz donated the most to crypto PACs in 2024
“Andreessen Horowitz donated by far the most to crypto packs when I looked at the data earlier this year or the last year.”
Hays: Mark Zuckerberg's auctioned gold chain raised $100,000 for Inflection Grants
“And so this chain, they were able to secure
Mark Zuckerberg's former daily driver chain and auction it off and able to raise a 100,000 dollars for inflection grants.”
Hays: Friend AI companion pendant launches in January with all-day battery
“The Friend Pendant is set to launch in January, giving users a physical connection to their AI companions. A microphone, sensors, and an all-day battery pack into a sleek, customizable necklace.”
Coogan: US Sugar Tariffs Drove Gum Manufacturing to Canada and Mexico
“Like every gum manufacturer went to Canada and Mexico because of the sugar tariff.”
Hays: Aston Martin cars lose about half their value in year one
“The great thing about Aston's is they lose like half their value in the first year. So if a DBX at 300 K is too much, wait a year and you can buy the same car with 2000 miles for about a 150 K. That's true. So that's one of the beauties of the Aston brand is e…”
Coogan: Coinbase offered a 1 BTC referral bonus during YC Summer 2012
“In our YC batch, the referral bonus for going on Coinbase at the time was one Bitcoin.”
Hays: Grammarly is at roughly $300M in ARR
“I saw that Grammarly is at, like, basically, three hundred million of ARR.”
Manhattan members club Continuum costs $40,000 per year
“Welcome to the sauna wars where dedicated bath houses compete with members clubs like West villages continuum at which costs 40,000 per year that has a bath house set up in the financial district coworking space WSA's wet lounge as well.”
Nikola Founder Trevor Milton Will Be Released From Prison in 2027
“He's going to be out of prison in 20, 27.”
Hays: Anonymous accounts leaked VC deals early in the 2021 bubble
“Last last bubble 20, 21, there was an account, I think it was called genuine info or something like that. That was just similar approach that was basically leaking major deal making that was happening, you know, months or two months out before it was getting p…”
Hays: Ozempic is derived from Gila monster venom
“Well, as we all know, Ozempic, Ozempic is, is the Gila monster. Gila monster venom.”
Hays: The New York Times sent 'How Long Gone' a cease-and-desist over cover art
“Chris Black has a podcast called how, how long gone. And when they released the podcast, they used art like cover art that looked Very similar to a New York Times podcast and the New York Times sent them a cease and desist and they turned it into a they turned…”