The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 813 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 110 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Peter Steinberger: 2026 is the year of the personal assistant
“Last year was the year of the coding agent. This year is the year of the personal assistant.”
Steinberger: AI agents will cause many consumer apps to disappear or become APIs
“A lot of apps will just melt away. Why do I still need my fitness pal? I just make a picture of my food. My agent already knows I'm at McDonald's making bad decisions. So like this combines information, it has a perfect match and knows exactly what I'm going t…”
Coogan: AI providers will eventually pay Apple to route search queries
“Now my real hot take is that I think it's going to flip at some point. And I think Google or someone else is going to pay Apple To route LLM queries to them, because with the universal commerce protocol, agentic commerce protocol with ads and LLM responses, th…”
Coogan: Declining inference costs and monetization will make LLM queries net profitable
“I think the price of inference will continue to decline, and the value of each query, the monetization of each query will Increase until there's a flippening. And then all of a sudden, every LLM query that's generated is on net across the entire category, gene…”
Tan: Opening Apple devices to rival AI agents would spur investment
“Then there are a billion consumers in the world who would suddenly have access to not just one self-preference Siri, but a variety of American labs. And that would open up investment. That would open up prosperity.”
Hays: Founders Fund's SpaceX stake will reach around $150B
“Again, it's still, like, gonna be a hundred and fifty-ish billion dollar position.”
Coogan: Netflix Will Ultimately Win Bidding War for Warner Bros. Discovery
“I feel like it's going to land with Netflix.”
Coogan: Space Data Center Capacity Will Remain Under 1GW by 2027
“I would probably say like, There will be under one gigawatt of capacity in space by the end of 2027.”
Baszucki predicts Roblox will capture 10% of all global gaming activity
“We believe Roblox will get to 10% of all gaming running on the platform.”
Tyler Hogge predicts the US government will provide AI loan backstops
“But a backstop of loans, I would expect that to happen.”
John Coogan predicts China wins a 15-year AGI race on energy advantages
“If AGI happens in 15 years, China is more likely to get it because they're on a steeper energy ramp than we are. But if AGI happens sooner, and it's, and it is just sort of an algorithmic breakthrough, like we do have an advantage in America because we have mo…”
SpaceX could eventually provide 20% to 30% of global mobile data
“I think SpaceX is going to do unbelievably well, and I am maximum bull on direct assault for SpaceX, but I think what happens, like, in the kind of most wild success scenario for SpaceX, SpaceX is providing, like, 20, 30% of the world's mobile data in a decade…”
Bryan Johnson: Humanity Is Giving Birth to Superintelligence
“We are giving birth to some kind of super intelligence. We don't know what it is. We don't know what kind of scale, but it's big. It's important.”
Johnson: Blueprint aims to become a multi-trillion-dollar longevity market winner
“Basically, somebody's gonna set up shop in longevity and ride a multi-trillion dollar ride. So that's what we're trying to do, is we're trying to just be home base, win the early innings of longevity, and then ride for the multi-trillion dollar market.”
Johnson: Competitors are very unlikely to successfully unseat Stripe
“It's very unlikely. They've done such a great job executing. I sold Braintree in 2013, so they've been building 12 years since. They've done such a good job making that airtight.”
Nadella: Technology will grow to 10-15% of total GDP within a decade
“And if you ask me five years from now, 10 years from now, is that percentage going to be higher or lower? I think the answer is pretty straightforward. It's going to be higher. It's just a question. Is it going to be 10 or 15?”
Houston: Most AI commercial value will come from level-1 and level-2 tools
“In self-driving they have like level five full autonomy, like totally self-driving human out of the loop, but a lot of the commercial value gets created at like the level one, level two, like, all right, let's give people a working search box. Let's actually g…”
Jeff Yan: Hyperliquid will ultimately become the rails for all finance
“And so we hyper liquid really is what we think like credibly neutral protocol, which will ultimately be the rails that kind of all the finance kind of upgrades their tech stack.”
Chesky: Consumer AI will see a huge boom in 3 to 5 years
“My prediction is that in the next three to five years, not in the next year, you're going to see a huge boom in the consumer space of AI.”
Chesky: ChatGPT will ultimately be just a distribution channel
“Where I think it goes is I think ChatGPT has to build an SDK that's really robust, and it will be just a channel. That's my guess, but we'll see. And I might be wrong”
Chesky: AI tools will enable anyone with taste to become designers
“In fact, I think the AI tools will allow more people to be designers because you won't need to be a craftsperson. You just need taste. And I think more people can learn taste than can get through the craft, and this allows engineers, designers, and everyone to…”
Chesky: Generative AI will elevate design to equal engineering
“I am very optimistic that generative AI is going to like, you know, really lift design In the world and make it one day equal to engineering. I think that, I don't think that's a crazy thing one day.”
Palmer Luckey predicts VR displays will surpass home theaters within 10 years
“The technological path to VR displays being better than 99% of people's home viewing environments is a single digit year problem. It's not decades. It's within 10 years, certainly.”
Cohen: CEOs will choose AI over humans to cut short-term costs
“One thing I know for certain is that the CEOs, if they can reduce their cost structure in the short term, They're gonna replace, they're gonna take computers over humans.”
Ohanian: Next generation of social media will be verifiably human
“And so I think we'll see a next generation of social media emerge. That's verifiably human.”
Ohanian: Future entertainment is AI-generated; live sports are uniquely resilient
“The future of Hollywood, the entertainment industry, the music industry is going to be largely AI generated or assisted. The appointment television, aside from live, you know, breaking tech and business news sport is like guaranteed. And the celebrity of being…”
Altman: Most future content will be tool-assisted human generation
“What I expect will mostly happen in the future, which is
Tool assisted human driven generation.
I don't think you care that much if the content is great.”
Altman: Creators will complain Sora does not feature their IP enough
“I can totally imagine a world where our problem in a year or six months or maybe even less is not that people don't want their cameos or their characters appearing, but they think we are not fairly having their characters or cameo appearing often enough.”
Altman: AI and VR will increase demand for authentic physical experiences
“And at some point, like the fact that they can have like a crazy VR experience, they'll still want the real thing and the connection to it and everything they have. So I think there will be a huge amount of that. In fact, I think the future looks like much mor…”
Boyle: Ending past performance requirements levels the playing field for defense startups
“Removing the past performance requirement from these larger contracts is going to level the playing field where then you're going to have companies that have been around for a long time. If they have the best product, they can prove they have the best product.…”
Boyle: Dozens of Defense Startups Will Become America's Next Primes
“We think that there's a very good chance that dozens of companies are going to be able to be the next primes of America, and that's going to lead to a host of manufacturing jobs across the country.”
Bosworth: Direct AI interfaces will replace traditional app stores on future devices
“And in the future, you're not going to have an app store. Like I don't need, I don't want to go figure out what the app for my toaster was called and like make sure I make toast, man. Like I said, talk to the AI and let it handle the backend.”
Wang: AI Models Will Replicate All His Lifetime Code Within 5 Years
“Literally all the code I've written in my life will be Replaced by what will be able to have been produced by an AI model within the next five years.”
Cameron: Meta Horizon and Disney+ will transform 3D distribution within 18 months
“The only reason they don't is because there's no defined distribution model. But that's coming. That's what the Disney Plus agreement with Meta Horizon TV itself, you know, it's, everything's gonna change in the next 18 months.”
Zuckerberg: AR glasses will replace smartphones while VR headsets will replace televisions
“Augmented reality is the future of phones. It's the mobile thing that you're going to take out with you. And I think virtual reality is the future of TVs.”
Elon Musk's new Tesla pay package could lead to merging xAI.
“Part of setting up this pay package could set up a scenario where XAI gets just merged into Tesla and it becomes a standalone. It just all gets rolled in.”
Karp: Palantir will extract considerably more revenue per client
“We believe we're going to make more from people in the future than in the past. Sizibly more because it's like, why should we not capture part of the value that we help create?”
Karp: Leaders become far more valuable as software automates the rest
“Actually, the interesting thing is, workers become more valuable, like, actually trained workers become more valuable. This is exactly the opposite of what people are saying, but it's true. The person at the top is actually crazy valuable. People with technica…”
Karp: Aggregate corporate cost structures will drop despite higher top-tier talent pay
“Workers are gonna become more expensive, the overhead's gonna become less. Truly, basically, artist-shaped people are gonna be incredibly valuable, and they're gonna demand to be very highly paid. So, But the aggregate cost structure will come down.”
Legacy toy manufacturers like Mattel will inevitably adopt blind boxes.
“The conclusion to the Lububu story? Well, it's probably, like, Ty, the maker of Beanie Babies, or Mattel, the maker of Barbie, getting into blind boxes. Yeah, like, that's the only answer. That, that's the, where the, like, the arrow of progress moves in one d…”
Hays predicts China will beat NASA to the Moon this decade
“So it's now probable that China will quote unquote beat NASA back to the moon this decade and win at least the initial heat of this new space race.”
Cuban predicts five to six foundation models and millions of brand models
“There's not, there'll be five, six, whatever it is, foundational models before there's consolidation. But beyond that, there's gonna be millions of models. Millions and millions of models. And every brand is going to need a model, particularly like in healthca…”
Cuban: Five to six foundational models will exist before consolidation
“There's not, there'll be five, six, whatever it is, foundational models before there's consolidation, but beyond that, there's going to be millions of models, millions and millions of models, and every brand is going to need a model, particularly like in healt…”
Cuban: Non-tech companies will have AI job shortages for years
“Going to any other company who has no idea about AI, but needs it in order to compete, there'll be more jobs than people for a long, long time.”
Hays: Perplexity won't significantly outvalue Snapchat in two years
“Search Feels like it'll be a winner take, take all market, and it's, they're not gonna, you know, two years from now, if they're sitting at thirty million monthly actives, or even a multiple of that, it's hard to see it, you know, being worth, ah, you know, si…”
Randle: Frontier AI token price declines will slow down dramatically
“There's going to be a very, very large set of tasks that models do that are not on the frontier. And those are going to continue to get dirt cheap. I actually think that at the frontier, you're probably going to see continued price decreases on a per token bas…”
Randle: AI Revenue Quality Could Exceed SaaS When Monetizing Like Labor
“I do think as some customers crack these agentic products that look and Monetize more like labor. AI revenue could actually exceed the quality of SAS revenue just because you're getting so much more gross profit per customer or like customer relationship than …”
Andreessen: AI training data disputes must be solved by Congress
“In the case of training data, I think that there, I mean, there's a bunch of these copyright, you know, kind of lawsuits happening right now. There's, you know, the big New York Times opening, I won, and there's, you know, been a bunch of others. I think in th…”