The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 5,804 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 130 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hays: Uber would be worth over $1T if Kalanick remained CEO
“His take, which I totally agree with is it's hard to, if Travis had stayed in the role, It's hard to imagine Uber being worth less than something like a trillion dollars today.”
Shkreli: Peptide craze is driven by psychological issues and institutional distrust
“I'm very concerned about the peptide craze. I think it comes mostly out of psychological issues which we'll discuss. The need for identity, control distrust of institutions, all kinds of things like that are leading to what we're seeing today.”
Marchione: Legalizing peptide compounding is the main way to minimize risk
“People are taking these compounds, right? They're already using them at scale, right? And the way to minimize risk, the main way to minimize risk is to move them from category two to category one, right? To legalize them because the risky thing is the dodgy su…”
Shkreli: No clinical trial of BPC-157 will ever work
“I would bet anything. I would bet anything. No trial of BPC would work.”
Hays: Elon Musk's lunar mass driver keynote is an IPO pump
“But still, this seems like a, just kind of a blatant sci-fi pump going into the IPO.”
Coogan: OpenAI offers PE firms a 17.5% minimum return
“OpenAI is offering private equity firms a guaranteed minimum return of 17.5%, as well as early access to models not yet in public release.”
Cuban: Humanoid Robot Startups Will Fail Miserably Within Ten Years
“I think everybody's making this push for humanoid robots. I think they might have a five-year lifespan and then they'll fail miserably, maybe 10.”
Cuban: Requiring Foreign Amazon Seller Bonds Would Skyrocket US Manufacturing
“And yeah, and legislatively you could fix it in a heartbeat. You got to post a bond. 25,000 dollar bond, depending on the size of the market, maybe more, and then give everybody 90 days to check it, and all of a sudden the whole industry changes, and American …”
Karp: Only vocational training or neurodivergence secures workers' future in AI
“There are two that everybody's worried about like their future, but there are basically two ways to know you have a future. One, you have some vocational training. So it's like, or two, you're neurodivergent.”
Alex Karp says AI job loss sparks 'hang the rich' backlash
“I think the American version, if we're not careful, is not going to be the German version. I think it's going to be hang the rich. I, It's like, I think it's gonna be, not protect everybody else. It's gonna be like, look, this is too dangerous, and we're gonna…”
Hays: Anthropic Officially Designated as a Federal Supply Chain Risk
“This also coincided with Anthropic, I guess, officially being designated as a supply chain risk”
Thompson: Private AI Labs Imposing Unilateral Limits Invites Severe State Backlash
“Unilaterally imposing restrictions, even if those restrictions are good, isn't just an issue as far as who rules us, the democracy issue, that sort of Palmer Luckey, I think very eloquently raised. It's inviting Very bad outcomes for those asserting that in ge…”
Thompson: China's Dependence on Taiwan Chips Creates Safer Geopolitical Equilibrium
“I think it is a safer equilibrium To have China dependent on Taiwan than to try to cut them off from Taiwan while we are dependent on Taiwan. Taiwan is 70 miles off the coast of China. It's not an ideal position in the world for us to have a dependency on it a…”
Thompson: US Government Actively Trying to Hurt Anthropic Over Subservience
“The goal isn't to, fine, we just won't use Anthropic. I do think the goal is to hurt Anthropic. And you're, if you're not going to be subservient to us, you're not going to be allowed to build a power base, period.”
Thompson: Trusting Dario Amodei Over Congress Abandons Democratic Governance
“You could say Congress isn't gonna do anything, therefore, Amadei should. Just appreciate that is giving up on the democratic process and saying we should have unelected, unaccountable individuals making weighty decisions.”
Thompson: Silicon Valley Hurt Itself With Naive Views on Military Duty
“I think there, you know, just in general, there is this very naive view of the world that doesn't understand why militaries are important and necessary, and I think Silicon Valley got itself in a lot of trouble by giving in to this naive mindset that we have n…”
Block reduces its workforce by 40 percent, cutting 4,000 employees
“Square is cutting from 10,000 to 6000 employees, a 40% reduction.”
CEOs will slash headcount regardless of actual AI efficiency gains
“So again, it doesn't really matter whether or not a company is actually getting tremendous efficiency from AI. Every CEO is going to do this.”
Trump Requires Tech Giants to Build Power Plants for AI Data Centers
“Tonight I'm pleased to announce that I have negotiated the new rate payer protection pledge.
You know what that is?
We're telling the major tech companies that they have the obligation to provide for their own power needs.
They can build their own power plants…”
Hays: Anthropic Battles Pentagon Over Surveillance and Lethal AI Uses
“It's also locked in a battle with the Defense Department over how its clawed suite are used after it told the Pentagon it couldn't be used for domestic surveillance or autonomous lethal activities.”
Trump: Tech Companies Must Build Own Power Plants Under New Pledge
“We're telling the major tech companies that they have the obligation to provide for their own power needs. They can build their own power plants as part of their. Factory so that no one's prices will go up and in many cases prices of electricity will go down f…”
Gurley: Chinese Open-Source AI Is Biggest Threat to US Dominance
“I said then, and I still believe now, the biggest threat to the U.S. Let's call it AI hegemony is, is the Chinese open source models, and the developers even in the US that are working on their own are using those, and you can see that on all the tables that a…”
Hays: Terraform Administrator Accuses Jane Street of Insider Trading
“The court-appointed administrator of Do Kwan's Terraform Labs alleged that Jane Street used non-public information about Terraform insiders to trade the play-by-play.”
Erebor Bank preemptively partners with US intelligence without waiting for court orders
“For example, one of the things that we're doing is rather than working with the intelligence community only under court order to kind of go and, you know, respond to when they think there's crime going on on the platform, we're preemptively going out there and…”
Erebor Bank will strictly follow US law and ignore foreign legal rulings
“We're saying, you know what, we're an American company, we're an American bank that supports American companies. And we will comply with US law, but we will not comply with spurious rulings from people who have no real jurisdiction or authority over us.”
An Oculus executive secretly intercepted Luckey's invitation to ring the NYSE bell
“Back in the Oculus days, when we sold the company to Meta, one of the first things that happened was New York Stock Exchange emailed our contact info, email, and they asked if I would come and ring the bell of the New York Stock Exchange.
Sounds pretty cool, r…”
Huberman: Most men 40+ should probably take 2.5 to 5mg Tadalafil
“The basic takeaway is that most every male, 40 and older, should probably be taking somewhere between 2.5 and five milligrams of Tadalafil, not necessarily for erectile function, although it will augment that as well, but to lower blood pressure and to improve…”
Bryan Johnson says organic products typically test worse than non-organic foods
“When we test organic, It typically performs worse than non-organic on many, many variables.”
Bryan Johnson predicts 'Don't Die' will become the world's dominant ideology
“Our primary hypothesis is as this evolves, the major shift is humans are going to want life. Like, you know, if AI takes our jobs and they take what we do and we want to find new identity, there's going to be a major shift towards don't die. And it's going to …”
Bryan Johnson predicts Blueprint's platform will exceed the FDA in value
“I think that we will exceed them in value in many core areas. Because they, you, they can take, you know, well-structured, well-funded clinical trials. But then other things like peptides that are very promising. They're not going to have the clinical work.”
Coogan: Reasoning and deep research models have basically solved LLM hallucinations
“Or they talk about hallucinated facts and LLM responses. Something that's basically been solved by deep Deep research and reasoning models”
Marszalek claims he received a $500M offer after acquiring AI.com
“And by the way right after we closed the deal, I got the approach for the, from the other side offering five, five hundred million plus, not for five hundred million for the domain.”
Thornton: Future combat assets will be too small for hypersonic missiles
“My personal belief, and this is, again, sort of a contrarian take, I think future warfighting has to be so decentralized that most of the assets used to fight wars are actually not large enough to consider taking out with a hypersonic missile.”
Bishop: Corrupt PLA officer promotions functioned like angel investments for future revenue
“It's kind of like an angel investment, at least in some cases where actually people would collectively buy a stake in a rising officer because I'm not joking. Right. Literally.”
Jensen Huang: Notion That AI Will Replace Software Companies Is Illogical
“There's this notion that the tool in the software industry is in decline. And we've replaced by AI. You could tell because there's a whole bunch of software companies whose stock prices are under a lot of pressure because somehow AI is going to replace them. I…”
O'Laughlin: SaaS stocks are mispriced for mainframe-level low growth
“The adjustment period is the big problem, because all the stocks are priced, like, they're not gonna be mainframes”
Coogan: AI agents will entirely replace human GitHub commits by year-end
“I would expect like 70%, and I would expect Codex to be at 30%, and no more human commits because it's working.”
Hays: Anthropic's ad campaign plants false impression of ChatGPT ads
“It's brilliant, well-timed, and incredibly strategic for a few reasons I'll outline below, and it's designed to plant a false impression of Chad GPT's forthcoming ad product in the minds of hundreds of millions of Americans.”
Hays: Claude has lost the race to reach billions of users
“Anthropic has already lost the race to serve billions of people, right? I don't think that they're, when you look at Gemini's sort of traction, OpenAI's, ChatGPT traction, like it seems like the race to get to Three billion monthly actives is kind of over. I d…”
Altman: OpenAI will never put ads into the LLM output stream
“Our first principle with ads is that we're not gonna put stuff into the LLM stream.”
Altman calls Anthropic's Super Bowl ad deceptive
“The main thing that's wrong with the ads is, like, using a deceptive ad to criticize deceptive ads feels, I don't know, something doesn't sit right with me about that.”
Patel: Anthropic's $300B revenue target for 2030 is too low
“And when Anthropic says in their funding, like, hey, we're gonna have three hundred billion dollars of revenue by the end of the decade, and it's like, actually I think that number's too low. Because the economic value of what they're gonna create is gonna be …”
Coogan: 17% of Tracked Tech Figures Appeared in Epstein Emails
“Big tech alerts that around 17% of the people that we track with this account are on the Epstein emails.”
Hays: Jeffrey Epstein Invested in Coinbase at a $400M Valuation
“Looking back and seeing, seeing even, even after the original conviction, how many companies he was able to get in, he got into Coinbase at 400.”
Coogan: SpaceX confirms plans to merge with xAI before IPO
“SpaceX confirms plans to merge with XAI before the IPO. Elon Musk plans to merge SpaceX with XAI.”
Warsh: The wealthiest extract the primary gains from central bank QE
“Where the gains have been extracted by the most well-to-do, by the most sophisticated, who see that the central banks are, to one degree or another, trying to get asset prices up to drag up the real economy. They get the joke, they have been willing to play th…”