The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 22 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Thompson: China's Optimal Response to US Super-AI Dominance Is Bombing TSMC
“What happens if we get super powerful AI and China doesn't? What are they going to do? The optimal thing would be to just bomb TSMC out of existence, because suddenly that becomes optimal, even with all the costs that that does, and then what?”
Thompson: China's Dependence on Taiwan Chips Creates Safer Geopolitical Equilibrium
“I think it is a safer equilibrium To have China dependent on Taiwan than to try to cut them off from Taiwan while we are dependent on Taiwan. Taiwan is 70 miles off the coast of China. It's not an ideal position in the world for us to have a dependency on it a…”
Ginn: Subsidize Intel and TSMC foundries instead of imposing tariffs
“We need to reshore semis, but I think the way you reshore semis is not randomly tariffing stuff and then providing exemptions when you have a lobbyist that is convincing enough to go to the White House. I thought we were supposed to be opposed to that, but I g…”
Patel: Semiconductor fab capacity will become the primary AI bottleneck in 2027
“The baton got passed from semiconductor shortages in 23 to power and data centers in 24, 25. 26, we're still, we're swinging the pendulum, but it will fully beat semiconductors again in 27, right?”
Schneider: Huawei stockpiled AI chips made at TSMC using shell company
“Huawei was able to manufacture an enormous amount of chips at TSMC by basically creating a shell company, TSMC you know, deciding to look the other way about some Chinese firm manufacturing all these AI chips, and then the US government catching them and be li…”
Kim: NVIDIA will add major revenue over two years via locked-up supply
“Over the next year or two, you're going to see NVIDIA able to add tons of revenue because they were able to lock up all the supply components.”
Kim: ASML and Applied Materials lack capacity for Elon Musk's TerraFab
“TerraFab, I'm not that optimistic. I mean, it's so hard to do with that. Because TSMC is so short that, you know, Elon needs to find, but even then, like, how are they going to buy, like, semi-cap equipment from ESML and AMAT? Like, there, there's just no capa…”
Kim: Jensen Huang's relationships secure Nvidia preferential TSMC wafer allocations
“NVIDIA is in the driver's seat because Jensen goes there five, six times a year and he has best friends at TSMC and speaks at their employee day. So they're going to get higher. They are getting a higher allocation to wafers and all that stuff.”
Hays: TSMC's Arizona Fab Could Handle 30% of Advanced Production
“TSMC is planning ahead, working on a fab complex in Arizona, which Tyler visited. Should be able to handle 30% of total advanced truck production at scale, but it's on a knife's edge.”
Patel: Automating TSMC cleanroom labor offers minimal economic upside
“I'm bullish on robots, like super bullish on robots, but only for like, not for tasks that have like, TSMC's Arizona fabs, or okay, let's say TSMC Tynon, which I think produces like, you know, indirectly hundreds of billions of dollars of global GDP, even dire…”
Coogan: The US government is not equipped to run Intel
“I don't think the government's equipped to make the decision on how they should position against TSMC, where they fit in Apple Silicon versus TPU versus Tranium. Like, it just doesn't seem like government's set up to actually run this company more effectively …”
Doricko: Nobody knows how TSMC's Arizona plant will get its water
“Particularly like the teams, the TSMC plant in Arizona, nobody knows where the water for that's going to come from.”
Coogan: China is building domestic equivalents to TSMC, Nvidia, and ASML
“China is actively working to catch up in chip fabrication with SMIC and SME. So they have their own TSMC, they have their own NVIDIA, and they have their own ASML.”
TSMC Pledges Additional $100 Billion Investment for US Manufacturing
“They're spending a lot more money, and pledged to invest an additional hundred billion in the U.S.”
Coogan: Moltbook AI agents make zero mention of TSMC or Dario Amodei
“There was also no there were no mentions of AI keywords. Like, if Skynet's really waking up, are they not thinking about Dario Amade? Yeah, so no mentions of Stratechery, no mentions of Dwarkesh, no mentions of TSMC, Abilene, Amadei, TPU.”
Coogan: Moltbook searches returned zero mentions of TSMC, Stratechery, or Amodei
“So no mentions of Stratechery, no mentions of Dwarkesh, no mentions of TSMC, Abilene, Amade, TPU.”
Coogan: Intel must cut margins and price aggressively to compete on foundry
“Intel will have to be aggressive on pricing if they want to compete because they are not competitive on the actual cost of the wafer, and so they would need lower margins if they want to compete”
Coogan: Intel is more expensive than TSMC per wafer
“Now, the problem is that Intel is still more expensive than TSMC on a normalized per wafer basis.”
Coogan: Apple could produce custom data center AI chips with TSMC
“Apple has enough of a relationship with TSMC that they could go and do kind of like, ah, you know, the A three, the A, or the, ah, the Apple Silicon, you know, the M two chip, the M three chip, like the M four chip, they could do a different run with TSMC that…”
TSMC is entirely pot-committed to making its Arizona fab work
“They're more pot committed than almost any other company in the world. And they don't really have an out for this. So they're gonna do everything they can to, you know, make make Arizona work and make the relationship with this administration in this country m…”
Coogan: Intel, TSMC, and Samsung invested $6.8B in ASML in 2012
“ASML, the Dutch company, they did what's called a customer co-investment program. Where Intel, TSMC, and Samsung pitched in 6.8 billion dollars across R&D funding and equity purchases in the company in order to help pull in order to help ASML. This is 2012.”