why aren't all 25 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Gurley: Mega VC Funds Hijacked Startups' High-Growth Years from Public Markets
“You look at the Stripe or the Databricks case, they're using those large funds to convince the companies to stay private longer, maybe forever that's just a very different world than the one that I grew up in.
I think they turn around and the people that do t…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Johnson: Competitors are very unlikely to successfully unseat Stripe
“It's very unlikely. They've done such a great job executing. I sold Braintree in 2013, so they've been building 12 years since. They've done such a good job making that airtight.”
Insight
Randle: Top-tier scale startups can raise practically unlimited private capital
“And the asset class has grown so much that if you're an amazing company, Compounding your intrinsic value at 25, 30% a year at scale, you can raise practically unlimited capital.”
Assertion Supported
Hays: Stripe data shows $1M+ solopreneurs doubled between 2023 and 2025
“An analysis by the payments company Stripe, Tyler, look up Stripe, shows there are thousands of solo operators on the company's platform that are generating over one million in revenue, with their ranks doubling between 20 23 and 20 25.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Stripe's PayPal Offer Is $53B With $50B Bank Debt
“The basic structure of the deal is as follows. Fifty three billion for all of PayPal. 60 dollars and 50 cents per share offered. 28% premium over yesterday's closing price. But it's a steep discount to last year's valuation. Fifty billion has been committed in…”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Stripe and Advent Plan 50/50 Equity Split on PayPal
“Stripe is partnering with private equity firm Advent International for the deal. They have a lot of deal-making experience in fintech specifically. And I think they're going to go fifty-fifty on the equity portion, but then there's a whole bunch of bank financ…”
Opinion
Hays: PayPal Run Half as Well as Stripe Is Worth Double
“If you could make PayPal even run half as well as Stripe, that's probably worth double what it's currently worth.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McCormick: In five years much of finance will run on blockchains
“And I think it's like some point in five years, a lot of finance is going to run on Solana on ETH maybe on sweet or, you know, like a lot of, I think it's inevitable that, that more and more. Finance will move over to crypto stable coins and having Stripe behi…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hays: Stablecoin merchant adoption will rise via Bridge and Stripe
“Strong like infrastructure Platforms like Bridge, and especially the amount of investment that I imagine Stripe will put behind Bridge going forward, like merchant adoption will go up. Coinbase, you know, recently, you know, last week ran that ad, you know, sh…”
Insight
Early-Stage Startups Should Not Attract Interns Seeking Corporate Perks
“That's an example of like when you're Stripe and you have a fifty billion dollar market cap, yes, invest in your internship program. When you're Crossman and you're trying to be the next Stripe don't try to attract interns that are there for the perks, right?”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hays: Traditional Payment Tech Will Compete With Crypto for AI Agents
“There's this broad narrative that agents are just going to use digital assets because there's, they're permissionless, and you can just, like, they're instant. They're less regulated and that, that probably will happen, but there's going to be competition from…”
Assertion Supported
Hays: Bridge had a $15M revenue run rate at Stripe acquisition
“It was like fifteen million dollar run rate.”
Assertion Supported
Stripe data shows micro-startups reaching multi-million revenues faster than ever
“Today's micro startups are becoming multi-million dollar firms faster and more frequently than any generation of firms that Stripe has measured.”
Assertion Partly supported
Coogan: Stripe and Bill Gates Are Funding Intercept with $500M
“Strype and Bill Gates are putting five hundred million dollars into funding a new organization called Intercept.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chris Dixon says fintechs will adopt stablecoins before traditional banks
“I think it'll see it in stages, so like the fintechs, the sophisticated fintechs like Stripe and, you know, Robinhood and Revolut and things will be first and then over time you'll see, I think eventually you'll see just like a button on your Chase bank that's…”
Assertion Supported
Mohnot: Stripe deprecated its corporate card and invested in Ramp
“Stripe had built RAM. Stripe had a corporate card. And it didn't work. Like, they ended up investing in RAM and deprecating that card.”
Opinion
Coogan: Sam Altman is likely a billionaire from Stripe alone
“I mean, I think he's a billionaire just from Stripe.”
Opinion
Hayes: Bridge acquisition is 2024's tech acquisition of the year
“Acquisition of the year for me had to be bridge.”
Assertion Supported
Secondary Liquidity for Seven Private Startups Surpassed All 2023-2024 Tech IPOs
“There was more money flowing into secondaries. For Figma, Rippling, Canva, Revolut, CoreWeave, Databricks, and Stripe, then all of the tech IPOs in twenty-twenty-three to twenty-twenty-four.”
Insight
Companies Should Over-Invest in Interns to Identify Future Leaders
“Interns are not about getting output from the actual work that they do over the summer. It's about mentorship, evaluation, figuring out who the next generation of leaders will be at your firm, so. Highly recommend over-investing in your intern programs.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Stripe Acquired Bridge for Over $1 Billion
“Yeah, the top story, we gotta talk about Stripe acquiring Bridge for over one billion dollars.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hays: Stripe's Bridge Deal Will Spark Massive Crypto Infrastructure Investing
“And the funny thing is this will inspire an entire massive wave of new crypto infrastructure investing.”
Assertion Contradicted
Hays: Bolt built proprietary payment rails instead of using Stripe
“Fast checkout provider to be running on Stripe, Bolt was famously not, they had built their own payment rails.”
Assertion Supported
Hays: Robinhood fund includes Databricks, Ramp, Stripe, and Revolut
“They have a new fund that has Databricks, Mercore, Revolut, Airwallex, Boom, Supersonic, Ramp, Aura, and Stripe, which is signed and pending, closed.”
Disclosure
Harris: Founders Fund received roughly 50 stablecoin pitches post-Bridge deal
“I think after the bridge acquisition, we genuinely got like. Probably, like, 50 stable coin pitches. Like, it was legitimately, like, insane.”