The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 46 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Asparouhov: Biden Admin Rejected Early SpaceX Return Due to Musk's Politics
“What's incredibly clear is SpaceX offered to bring the astronauts back sooner And because it was in the middle of the election cycle, and because Musk was campaigning for Trump, the Biden administration turned down that offer.”
Shotwell: SpaceX and xAI merger owns Earth's largest gigawatt-class compute cluster
“With the merger, the acquisition of XAI, we now, as a group, own the largest coherent gigawatt class compute on the planet, which will help us truth seek and understand the universe.”
Coogan: SpaceX confirms plans to merge with xAI before IPO
“SpaceX confirms plans to merge with XAI before the IPO. Elon Musk plans to merge SpaceX with XAI.”
Hays: SpaceX and xAI in merger talks ahead of planned IPO
“So, they're in discussions ahead of a blockbuster IPO planned for later this year. The combination would bring Musk's rockets, Starlink satellites, and X social media platform, and the Grok AI chatbot under one roof.”
NASA Originally Planned to Award Commercial Crew Exclusively to Boeing
“When commercial crew was originally getting started, the original plan by NASA was to only, you know, do it as a sole source of war, just a Boeing. SpaceX was seen as a bunch of, you know, cowboys who has that had no chance of actually being able to be trusted…”
SpaceX Unit Sues Apple and Prototypes Smartphone-Like AI Device
“A unit of SpaceX is suing Apple for disadvantaging its AI app, and the company is now prototyping its own smartphone-like AI device.”
Coogan: NASA Safety Panel Considers Near-Term Starship Crewed Landing Unachievable
“A NASA safety panel separately raised questions about how quickly SpaceX's human lander, based on its Starship vehicle, would be ready. A landing operation of astronauts with the Starship lander Within the next few years appears daunting and to the panel proba…”
Kim: Elon Musk will pitch space-based GPU satellites for SpaceX IPO
“I think Elon's pitch with the SpaceX IPO, and we'll see it in the coming months, is the AI compute, it's gonna be so, there's gonna be so much demand over the next five, 10 years, that you're gonna have to use these SpaceX satellites that have GPUs in them. To…”
Coogan: SpaceX is planning an IPO raising up to $50B at $1.5T valuation
“SpaceX is planning an IPO that could raise as much as fifty billion and value the company at 1.5 trillion.”
Coogan: SpaceX is hiring BofA, Goldman, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley for IPO
“SpaceX is set to hire Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley to lead its IPO.”
Hays: Founders Fund's SpaceX stake will reach around $150B
“Again, it's still, like, gonna be a hundred and fifty-ish billion dollar position.”
Asparouhov: Northrop dropped a spacecraft, shifting ISS cargo missions to SpaceX
“This past week They dropped it. And so NASA was like, look like, yes, this has been tested, et cetera, but like, we don't know what happened in the drop. We need to basically send this thing back and run it through a full testing campaign and make sure that it…”
Asparouhov: China Copied Falcon 9 Designs But Still Cannot Land Rockets
“If you look at the, you know, sort of Chinese rockets, they look a hell of a lot like the Falcon nines. And they're still not landing.”
Coogan: SpaceX developed an AI handset prototype with Qualcomm Snapdragon chips
“SpaceX developed an early prototype of an AI Focused handset. The device is said to be slimmer than the iPhone. Runs proprietary operating system. Uses XAI technology built around Qualcomm's Snapdragon chipset.”
Coogan: Founders Fund and Valor to make $60B+ on SpaceX IPO
“Founders Fund and Valor are set to make more than sixty billion in gains on the SpaceX IPO. Sequoia, more than twenty billion.”
Coogan: A SpaceX IPO is coming around September or October 2026
“So, maybe September, maybe October, but, ah, it's coming.”
Coogan: Starlink accounts for 50% to 80% of SpaceX's total revenue
“Starlink is the main revenue driver accounting for about 50 to 80% of the total revenue.”
Coogan: xAI's single $20B round exceeds SpaceX's lifetime funding
“So SpaceX has done 31 funding rounds, a lot of those have been secondary transactions, but 31 funding rounds to raise twelve billion. XAI just goes out and raises 20 in one round.”
Late Stage Management Executives Plead Guilty in $528M Fraud Scheme
“In February and March, three sales executives connected to Late Stage, pleaded guilty to federal charges arising from a broader, five hundred and twenty-eight million dollar investment scheme. Prosecutors said the defendants marketed supposedly no fee pre IPO …”
SpaceX Launch Infrastructure Designed to Launch a Starship Every Hour
“The engineering that goes into this, just so, thinking so far ahead, like, I think this is designed to launch a starship every hour.”
Coogan: SpaceX IPO priced at $135 and opened at $150
“SpaceX IPO priced at 135 dollars a share. Opened at one 50.”
Coogan: SpaceX hits $2.28 trillion market cap at $172 per share
“It's a 2.28 trillion dollar company now. 172 dollars a share.”
Over 1,000 SpaceX Employees Organize to Negotiate Wealth Management Fees Pre-IPO
“Joe Weisenthal is reporting that on the eve of the IPO, SpaceX employees are organizing more than a thousand current and former SpaceX employees have banded together to negotiate with wealth management firms for better pricing. And access to sophisticated tax-…”
Coogan: SpaceX reported $18.67 billion in annual revenue in its S-1
“SpaceX reported its revenue last year at 18.67 billion, and Dan Primack had a post saying that the business was smaller than he expected.”
Coogan: Goldman Sachs won lead left role over Morgan Stanley for SpaceX IPO
“Incredible that Goldman beat out Morgan Stanley for the SpaceX IPO, left lead left. Given that Michael Grimes returned to Morgan Stanley in part for this deal, of course, Morgan Stanley is on the deal but that is it is a big win for Goldman that DJ SpaceX is a…”
Hays: D1 Capital set to generate roughly $20B from SpaceX investment
“They're set to generate roughly twenty billion in, in returns”
Hays: SpaceX Targets June 11th NASDAQ IPO
“SpaceX accelerates IPO timeline targets June 11th, Pricing on the NASDAQ.”
SpaceX's rumored $1.75T valuation would surpass Tesla's $1.2T market cap
“It is a wild timeline that SpaceX, if it goes out at 1.75 trillion will be bigger than Tesla, which is sitting around 1.2 trillion these days.”
Hays: A 3% SpaceX float would beat Alibaba's US IPO record
“Even a tiny three percent float would comfortably eclipse the U.S. IPO record set by Alibaba's twenty five billion dollar float in 2014.”
Coogan: SpaceX operates 9,500 satellites serving over 9M Starlink users
“The rapid launch of 9500 Starlink satellites since 2019 has made SpaceX the world's largest satellite operator with only not over nine million users of the broadband internet service”
Coogan: Starlink has over 10,000 satellites in orbit
“Starlink has over 10,000 up there already, I believe.”
Coogan: Blue Origin is the second company ever to land a rocket booster
“It's only the second company in history to land a rocket booster after SpaceX.”
SpaceX completes Starship Flight 10 test with Indian Ocean splashdown
“Flight 10 made it back, took off from Starbase, South Texas. The booster landed in the ocean in the, I think, the Gulf of America, technically. And the actual Starship executed a successful flip maneuver, deployed a mock payload of a bunch of Non-functional St…”
Dixon: SpaceX uses stablecoins for cross-border treasury management on Starlink sales
“SpaceX has a program where they move, you know, they'll sell a Starlink in, I think it's like some, south of like Brazil or something, and then they'll immediately, you know, use stablecoins for so-called treasury management.”
Asparouhov: SpaceX and Palantir had to sue US government to win contracts
“Both SpaceX and Palantir In the 2010 through 12 time period. Basically to sue the government in order to win contracts.”
SpaceX runs two annual tender offers totaling over $1.5 billion
“SpaceX has raised ten billion dollars in primary over its, you know, 23 years of being around as a company. They've been running, you know, two tenders annually that, you know, total like more than a billion and a half dollars a year for a long time.”
Asparouhov: Falcon 9 had more issues recently than in prior five years
“Falcon nine has also had more issues over the past years or six months than like the prior, like five years combined.”
Baker: SpaceX Offered Employee Secondary Liquidity Every Six Months for 10 Years
“If you're an employee, or even if you're an investor who has an SPV or you're directly on the cap table, you've had a chance to sell every six months for the last 10 years.”
Coogan: SpaceX leveraged excess launch capacity to create Starlink
“SpaceX built basically more launch capacity than there was demand for, but then Because there was space on every SpaceX rocket, and they were able to build them so, so efficiently, so affordably, they were able to put up a massive constellation of internet con…”
Coogan: US paid Russia up to $90M per seat before SpaceX Crew Dragon
“In 2002, a SpaceX capsule carried two astronauts to the space station from American soil. Closing a nine year gap in which the United States paid Russia as much as ninety million dollars a seat to hitch a ride.”
Coogan: Gwynne Shotwell earned $86M last year mainly in stock options
“Shotwell was paid eighty six million last year, mostly in the form of stock options.”
Starlink Deployed Over 650 Direct-to-Cell Satellites to Connect 12 Million Users
“Starlink has deployed more than 650 satellites dedicated to providing connections to cell phones as of the end of last year, connecting more than twelve million people, according to the company.”