why aren't all 42 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Coogan: Shaun Maguire's political commentary gave Sequoia Capital a public adversary
“Sequoia was like, you know, the untouchable firm, no enemies, and then Sean McGuire, you know, decided to wage a holy war against Islam, and so now they have an enemy, and now they're not just this, like, untouchable brand.”
Opinion
Roberts: Tech should not rely on futures blessed by a16z and Sequoia
“We want lots of possible futures. We don't just want the one that's blessed by A-sixteen Z. We don't just want the one that's blessed by Sequoia. We want futures that could be possible with or without their participation or with their blessing. So I think the …”
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2034
Hays: Sequoia Will Make Money on Its X Investment in 10 Years
“I would be willing to bet my house that they'll make money on this investment in 10 years.”
Insight
Fund Returns Are Inversely Proportional to Team and Fund Size
“Doug has this presentation, he calls it the laws of physics, where one of the laws of physics is that fund returns are inversely proportional to team size, and also fund returns inversely proportional to fund size.”
Disclosure
Sequoia Acts as Cutthroat 'Front Stabbers' for Maximum Round Allocation
“Sequoia, you know, we are as cutthroat as it gets, right? Like we are front stabbers, you know, we'll, we'll, like, we don't hide that in general we want to do usually as much of a round as we possibly can.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Founders Fund and Valor to make $60B+ on SpaceX IPO
“Founders Fund and Valor are set to make more than sixty billion in gains on the SpaceX IPO. Sequoia, more than twenty billion.”
Disclosure
Sequoia passed on Coinbase because buying Bitcoin directly seemed better
“It's actually a big part of why Sequoia passed on Coinbase in the time.”
Assertion Supported
Sequoia-backed companies comprise roughly 30% of NASDAQ's total market cap
“Like, if you look at the NASDAQ, about 30% of the NASDAQ by market cap were early Sequoia, you know, companies.”
Disclosure
Sequoia Capital targets a minimum 10x net return for every venture fund
“We strive for minimum 10 X net returns. Like that is our goal for every fund.”
Opinion
Defense tech is now a consensus category with incredibly high valuations
“Now I think defense tech is becoming consensus. It's too obvious. And so it's like valuations are incredibly high”
Insight
Formulaic Playbooks Create the Worst Tech Board Members
“A paint by numbers approach to anything in technology and anything in investing is bad. And I think the worst board members tend to try to be the people who come in and take the reins and run their play, run that company through their playbook because playbook…”
Disclosure
Maguire: Sequoia invested $800 million in X's take-private transaction
“Yes, eight hundred million dollars, guys, and no victory laps until it's exited in Liquid”
Assertion Contradicted
Sequoia-Backed Companies Represent 33% of Nasdaq Market Value
“Sequoia has helped capitalize companies that now represent 3.3 trillion of market value. 33% of the Nasdaq.”
Opinion
Coogan: Sequoia's Roelof Botha podcast failed to break into cultural zeitgeist
“The other half of the Sequoia marketing strategy is this podcast hosted by Roloff Bota called Crucible Moments, and they actually get incredible guests. They've had Chesky and all these like huge CEOs on and they've done some promotion for it, but it just hasn…”
Insight
Hays: Non-top five VCs must win deals on partner likability
“I'm like short any VC that doesn't understand that they're in the likability game, because if you're not one of the Holy Trinity or a top five firm, you have this sort of adverse selection problem where all the best founders want to work with a select group of…”
Opinion
Hays: 2025 is Sequoia Capital's roughest communications year on record
“This has been probably the roughest year on record for Sequoia in terms of like comms, right?”
Disclosure
Sequoia launches $750M Venture Fund 19 and $200M Seed Fund 6
“Next venture fund vintage dropping. Venture fund, 19. Also seed fund, six. Seed is, you know, something that we used to combine inside our venture funds, but wanted to place a major emphasis on it, really just show the distinction. And I would say, so anyways,…”
Assertion Supported
Hays: Figma IPO Generated Historic Fund Multiples for Index, Greylock, KP, Sequoia
“The fund multiple is 18 X. Greylock, who did the series A is sitting on an 11 X fund. They did the series A out of a six hundred million dollar fund. KP, which did the series B is sitting on a 10 X fund out of a seven hundred million dollar fund, which is just…”
Insight
Reed: Public market exposure prevents VCs from losing valuation discipline
“It's hard to really lose your mind on things if you have the forcing function of the public markets, you know, around the corner every single day.”
Insight
Reed: Effective board members act as emotional shock absorbers
“And then there's this concept that Roloff talks about a lot of being a shock absorber on the board, which is something that I really, really believe in. You know, when things are going well, many board members love to do the rah-rah cheerleading board meetings…”
Assertion Supported
Reed: Sequoia Made Single-Digit Millions on a 40x Return in Apple
“It was, in the single digit, I think it was, I think Sequoia made a 40 X on a 150 K. . Wow. So single digit million dollar gain”
Insight
Reed: Running executive searches together aligns investors and founders post-deal
“I think one thing I like to do pretty soon after leading an investment is do an executive search with the founder. I think it's like a very nice way to get from the opposite sides of the table when you're negotiating an investment. You know, the first thing yo…”
Insight
Akhund: Startups are easier to underwrite than consultancies
“Definitely startups are actually easier, right? Like, people have a pretty big digital presence they have better websites, they have a LinkedIn, they have X, et cetera and, you know, their descriptions, their VCs, like, if a, you know, if a Sequoia funded comp…”
Assertion Partly supported
Akhund: Mercury raises $300M round led by Sequoia Capital
“We just announcing our CVC Sequoia is leading the round with Park and Marathon coming in as new investors, and all of our previous kind of VCs are participating, so it's a three hundred million round with a combination of primary and secondary.”
Assertion Supported
Giffon: Sequoia Heritage is roughly the size of Sequoia Capital
“I mean, Sequoia heritage, you know, Sequoia heritage is, is significantly or maybe not significantly, but it's like roughly the size of Sequoia.”
Assertion Supported
Hays: Sequoia Made Only $6 Million on Its Apple Investment
“Yeah, but somebody, I think Shiel pointed out they actually only made six million on Apple.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hays: Sequoia Capital Still Operates as a Consensus Partnership
“So they still have a consensus partnership.”
Assertion Supported
Sequoia Has Generated Over $70 Billion in Cumulative Gains
“Over the years, it's made its limited partners and its own rainmakers who pocket around a quarter of the gains plus a management fee a total of over seventy billion dollars, thanks to early bets. On future tech darlings like Airbnb, Apple, Google, and Nvidia.”
Assertion Supported
Sequoia Netted Over $20B from Airbnb and DoorDash IPOs
“And he worked on Airbnb and DoorDash, which netted the firm over twenty billion dollars. Isn't that crazy when they went public in December of 2020?”
Assertion Supported
Sequoia invested $600,000 into Airbnb at a $3 million valuation
“Airbnb, obviously, like Sequoia was the first investor or the seed round. Sorry, not first investor. They did YC, but you know, we invested 600,000 dollars, like a three million dollar valuation, and they went through some incredibly hard times.”
Assertion Supported
Most of Sequoia's current investment team joined within the last eight years
“Most of the team was not here eight years ago.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sequoia helped assemble five or six companies pre-incorporation last year
“I think in the last year, there's been at least five or six companies where we signed term sheets before, sorry, where we were involved in the putting together of companies like before, before they were even incorporated, you know, we were kind of structuring …”
Assertion Supported
Sandler: TrueWork board included Lin, Rabois, and Sarracino
“All three investors on our board, Alfred Lynn from Sequoia, Keith Erboy from Kosla. And Steve Saraceno from Activant.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Reed: Doug Leone Made a $3B Gain on the Wiz Deal
“I think on Wednesday of last week was in the whiz deal was announced. And, you know, yet another three billion dollar gain for Doug Leone.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Reed: Many Sequoia investors start in their twenties and apprentice for years
“You know, if you look at a lot of it, a lot of the people at Sequoia started in the early twenties here and apprentice, you know, were nobodies for five, six years. And then all of a sudden people started recognizing them when they had, you know, amazing, amaz…”
Assertion Supported
Akhund: Sonya Huang led Sequoia's investment in Mercury
“Yeah, Sonya Huang. She's been doing a ton in AI, including Langchain and Glean and she knows a lot about FinTech as well, so excited to have her on board.”
Disclosure
Maguire: Sequoia Capital seeded Gili Raanan's fund Cyberstarts
“He started his own fund called Cyber Starts, which we seeded. And early on, meaning like Sequoia invested in his fund, which we don't do very often.”
Disclosure
Maguire: Sequoia backs SpaceX, Boring Company, X, and xAI, not Tesla
“We're not investors in Tesla, just given the timing and that it was public where, you know, major investors in space X invested in boring company, investors in X, investors in XDI.”
Assertion Supported
Hays: Shaun Maguire Led Sequoia's Investment into X
“He led the deal into X from Sequoia. Yep. Has a very close relationship with Elon.”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Sequoia Partner Who Backed Nvidia Still Holds Distributed Shares
“You know that the partner at Sequoia who did the NVIDIA deal still owns the stock? Cause after they went public, it was distributed, just held.”
Assertion Supported
Odoo Announced a €500 Million Secondary Investment at a €5 Billion Valuation
“Fabian Pinkhares is announcing a five hundred million, ooh, million? I was gonna say dollars, but then I caught the symbol here, five hundred million euro investment in UDU at a five billion euro valuation. Which has been led by Capital G and Sequoia Capital a…”
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Sequoia is structured to take long and short public market positions
“You know, Sequoia, they're set up to take long and short positions in the public markets.”