The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 44 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Coogan: ByteDance securing 36,000 Nvidia Blackwell chips via Alawani Cloud
“ByteDance is working with a Southeast Asian company called Alawani Cloud on plans to use some 500 Blackwell computing systems totaling around 36,000 B-two hundred chips.”
Bishop: State Department blocks Commerce-approved NVIDIA H200 sales to China
“What's interesting, right, I think it was the Financial Times reported last week that even though, ah, like, the Department of Commerce has signed off on the licenses to sell to China the H 200, that the Department of State, or the State Department, which has …”
O'Laughlin: Nvidia H100 and B200 GPU pricing has firmed up massively
“Like at this point H 100 pricing has massively firmed up. B 200 pricing definitely has super firmed up. And like, hey, there's clearly demand.”
Huang: Nvidia never promised $100B in one OpenAI round
“No, we never said we were going to invest a hundred billion dollars in one round. That never was said.”
Coogan: Nvidia Can Export H200 Chips to China with 25% US Tax
“Now Nvidia can sell to China, but they got to pay 25% to Uncle Sam.”
Trump will allow Nvidia H200 sales to China for 25% cut
“Trump says that the United States will allow Nvidia H 200 chip sales to China and get a 25% cut.”
Trump taxes Nvidia and AMD China chip sales at 15 percent
“Trump struck a deal with Nvidia and AMD for the federal government to take 15% of their chip sales in China in return for allowing the exports.”
Hammond: Nvidia continually circumvents export controls with sub-threshold chips like the H20
“Every time we introduce an expert control, NVIDIA's two weeks later has a new chip that just gets under the line of what's being controlled. And the latest one is the H-Twenty.”
Coogan: Nvidia booked $7.7B in Singapore chip sales in Q3 2024
“In the three months ended October, 27, 20, 24. So like deep chip ban, just not last quarter, but the quarter before Q three 7.7 billion dollars of chips to Singapore. And it's like, Singapore's not buying that many chips.”
Coogan: High-Flyer Quant Stockpiled 10,000 Nvidia GPUs Before US Bans
“High Flyer Quant managed to buy more than 10,000 NVIDIA graphics processing units before the U.S. Government imposed the chip bans, according to a local media outlet.”
Intel Secures $7B From Nvidia and SoftBank Following Federal Intervention
“Since Washington stepped in, as you know, Jordy Intel has pulled five billion of investment from NVIDIA, two billion from Japan's SoftBank, and its shares have more than quadrupled, trouncing those of rivals.”
Coogan: Nvidia's AI cloud revenue sharing creates unprecedented circularity
“NVIDIA has also partnered with AI cloud firms with revenue sharing, taking circularity to a previously unseen level.”
Kim: Jensen Huang secured memory and CoWoS supply agreements early
“He locked up all the supply agreements for memory, COOS, you know, connectors ahead of time.”
Hays: OpenAI raised $110B round from Amazon, NVIDIA, and SoftBank
“OpenAI raised a hundred and ten billion dollar round of funding from Amazon, NVIDIA, and SoftBank.”
Coogan: Google trained Gemini 3 Pro entirely on TPUs, bypassing Nvidia
“Google trained Gemini three pro on Google's own TPUs. No mention of Nvidia chips.”
Hays: Nvidia invests $10B for every $35B in GPUs OpenAI buys
“The basics of this deal are for every thirty five billion dollars of GPUs that OpenAI buys, NVIDIA will invest ten billion. So they're effectively just like paying for GPUs with, like, 30 percent-ish equity.”
Hammond: $16B in Nvidia H20 chip orders are waiting to ship
“There's sixteen billion dollars of orders for age twenties just sort of sitting in limbo about to go at the door.”
Coogan: China is building domestic equivalents to TSMC, Nvidia, and ASML
“China is actively working to catch up in chip fabrication with SMIC and SME. So they have their own TSMC, they have their own NVIDIA, and they have their own ASML.”
Coogan: Ilya Sutskever's SSI recently received a large NVIDIA compute cluster
“SSI, Ilya Sutskiver's new, Neolab is recently got a big cluster from NVIDIA”
Nvidia buys Hugging Face for $12.93B, matching the emoji's decimal code
“NVIDIA agreed to pay 12.9303 billion dollars for Hugging Face, which just happens to be the exact decimal code for the Hugging Face emoji, which of course is the Icon used by the company.”
Coogan: Nvidia assembles $500B AI financing package with Wall Street firms
“Wall Street big names join NVIDIA to build a five hundred billion dollar AI financing package, a landmark lending plan.”
Kim: NVIDIA's $50B data center lease requires a 30-year renewal
“It's like a 15 year lease and it's only fifty billion dollars if they renew the lease after 15 years. So it's like over 30 years if they renew it.”
Samsung supplies HBM to Nvidia for H100 and Blackwell systems
“Semiconductors still make up 30 to 40% of their business and they supply HBM to NVIDIA for the H-one hundred and Blackwell systems.”
Coogan: Supply chain risk ban applies only to government contracts
“There was a perception that this was, like, going to kill Anthropic, because if Nvidia has a government contract, then they can't do any deals with, ah, with Anthropic whatsoever, and that's not true, apparently. The, ah, the supply chain risk is specifically,…”
Nvidia reports $68.1 billion in quarterly revenue, up 73% year-over-year
“Revenue came in at 68.1 billion dollars, up 73% year over year, and 20% quarter on quarter, and this beat consensus estimates by nearly three percent.”
Nvidia has $95.2 billion in locked-in chip supply commitments
“They have 95.2 billion of supply locked in with chip manufacturers.”
Coogan: Nvidia and YC-Backed Startup Plans Moon Hotel by 2032
“A new startup backed by Nvidia and Y Combinator is planning to develop the first hotel on the moon by 2032.”
Coogan: Brookfield launches $100B AI infrastructure program with Nvidia
“Brookfield today announced the launch of a one hundred billion dollar global AI infrastructure program in partnership with NVIDIA and the Kuwait Investment Authority.”
Hays: xAI and Nvidia will build a 500-megawatt Saudi data center
“Musk's XAI and NVIDIA to develop a data center in Saudi Arabia. It's a 500 megawatt data center in Saudi. XAI is working with NVIDIA and a Saudi Arabian partner to develop a data center in the kingdom. Musk said Wednesday at an event with the crown prince. The…”
Build-A-Bear Workshop's stock is currently outperforming Nvidia.
“It's outperforming Nvidia, I believe.”
Machina Labs autonomously manufactured a physical sculpture directly from voice intent
“Basically spoke what he wanted to build, what sculpture he wanted to build, and the full stack of generating the code, running the robots, all were done autonomously. So from speech, from intent, all the way to the physical part, without anybody ever touching …”
Coogan: AMD GPUs Cost Roughly Half the Price of Nvidia Per Flop
“In fact, in terms of naive raw dollars per flop, AMD GPUs are something like half the price of NVIDIA GPUs.”
Coogan: Nvidia Holds Near-Monopoly on AI Training and Inference Capex
“They wound up with a basically something close to a monopoly in terms of share of aggregate industry capex that's spent on training and inference infrastructure for artificial intelligence.”
Sequoia Has Generated Over $70 Billion in Cumulative Gains
“Over the years, it's made its limited partners and its own rainmakers who pocket around a quarter of the gains plus a management fee a total of over seventy billion dollars, thanks to early bets. On future tech darlings like Airbnb, Apple, Google, and Nvidia.”
Bill Gurley Has Repeatedly Warned About Nvidia's Related-Party Startup Deals
“Bill Gurley has a nose for bubbles, like he just can smell bubbles, and he's been harping on the he's been harping on the Nvidia related party transaction thing for quite a while.”
Kim: NVIDIA Bought Stakes in Optical Companies Lumentum and Coherent
“They just bought stake in the optical companies, Lumentum and Coherent.”
Coogan: Nvidia revenue tripled from $60B to $215.9B by FY2026
“Revenue tripled from sixty billion in fiscal year 2024 to 215.9 billion in fiscal year 2026.”
Coogan: Nvidia GB200 NVL72 server rack contains two miles of copper
“NVIDIA's GB 200 NVL 72 server rack uses over 5000 copper cables. There's 72 GPUs wired together, but you need 5000 copper wires to get it all to work together. If you stretched out all of the copper wire in an NVL 72, From one side to another, it would go two …”
Data center hardware accounts for 91.4% of Nvidia's quarterly revenue
“Data center hardware, the chips, And networking equipment that NVIDIA sells to AI and cloud computing companies accounted for 91.4% of the quarter sales.”
Coogan: Nvidia headcount grew to 42,000 employees, up from 36,000
“NVIDIA CEO said they now have 42,000 employees yesterday, up from 36,000 in January of 2025.”
Senra: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang manages roughly 60 direct reports
“He's got 60 direct reports, I think in the book. I think when they start writing a book, it's like 30, and I think it goes up to 60, because the book just came out.”
Coogan: Sequoia Partner Who Backed Nvidia Still Holds Distributed Shares
“You know that the partner at Sequoia who did the NVIDIA deal still owns the stock? Cause after they went public, it was distributed, just held.”
NVIDIA's Q3 2024 Net Income Surpassed Its Total Q3 2023 Revenue
“NVIDIA's Q three, 20, 24 net income is higher than their Q three, 20, 23 revenue.”
Coogan: Anduril built early sensor towers with off-the-shelf gaming GPUs
“They built this sensor tower, and they were using literally, like, off-the-shelf gaming NVIDIA GPUs to run open-source, like, computer vision algorithms, like ImageNet, and so it was very much, like, hacked together from literally stuff you could buy at, like,…”