The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 103 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 5 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hays: OpenAI raised $110B round from Amazon, NVIDIA, and SoftBank
“OpenAI raised a hundred and ten billion dollar round of funding from Amazon, NVIDIA, and SoftBank.”
Thinking Machines could exit for $30B to $60B within two years
“Thinking machines could probably exit somewhere at between 30 and 60 today. Who has that money? I don't know. Maybe NVIDIA buys them or something. At least at some point over the next two years. I think the most likely acquirers would probably be Microsoft, Ap…”
Coogan: Nvidia Projects $5B in Quarterly Chip Sales to China
“Nvidia is estimating that they will be able to sell five billion dollars of chips to China every quarter.”
Hays: Selling Nvidia chips to China will undermine domestic Chinese competitors
“Yes, but I still think there's enough of like a market force within China that if we flood the market with cheap Nvidia chips, there will, it'll just be expensive for them to keep propping up their local industry.”
Coogan: Nvidia earnings lag real-time AI demand due to five-year lead times
“Also with the Nvidia news, it's like, how much can you actually read into AI demand based on Nvidia earnings? Because I feel like we're projecting out like these deals five years in advance. We buy the chips, then we install them like that whole rumored decele…”
Coogan: Google trained Gemini 3 Pro entirely on TPUs, bypassing Nvidia
“Google trained Gemini three pro on Google's own TPUs. No mention of Nvidia chips.”
Coogan: Nvidia retains monopoly power because Google refuses to sell TPUs
“If TPUs are not for sale, Nvidia does have a monopoly. If Nvidia truly is the only seller in the market because Google is not a seller then yes, they still extract monopoly power from every other buyer because every other buyer says, yeah, I'd love to buy TPUs…”
Hays: Google bypassing Nvidia for Gemini 3 is not priced in
“This doesn't feel fully priced in yet to either company. But then again, right, it's so hard to predict demand over the next five, 10 years that maybe, maybe it doesn't even matter.”
Jensen Huang doesn't believe in AGI, otherwise Nvidia wouldn't sell chips
“If Jensen was very AGI-pilled, I mean, he is the kind of, He, he's the rock on which this all is built on. Yes. He has the chips. If he was AGI-peeled, he would not be giving out those chips. He would keep them all to himself, and he would be training his own …”
Hays: Nvidia invests $10B for every $35B in GPUs OpenAI buys
“The basics of this deal are for every thirty five billion dollars of GPUs that OpenAI buys, NVIDIA will invest ten billion. So they're effectively just like paying for GPUs with, like, 30 percent-ish equity.”
Hotz: Either Nvidia is overvalued or AMD is significantly undervalued
“Either Nvidia's really overvalued or AMD's really undervalued. It has to be one or the other.”
Hays: Manufacturing is likely not a great use case for humanoid robots
“We've had, we've asked a bunch of robotics experts about humanoids. And so far, I haven't got a, I don't have the confidence that, that this is Actually a super great use case for them.”
Nvidia will be fine without $2 billion in China H20 chip revenue
“There is no reason. NVIDIA does not need the money. It's like two billion dollars of revenue. Like, they will be just fine without it”
Hammond: $16B in Nvidia H20 chip orders are waiting to ship
“There's sixteen billion dollars of orders for age twenties just sort of sitting in limbo about to go at the door.”
Coogan: China is building domestic equivalents to TSMC, Nvidia, and ASML
“China is actively working to catch up in chip fabrication with SMIC and SME. So they have their own TSMC, they have their own NVIDIA, and they have their own ASML.”
Coogan: Microsoft is no longer GPU-bound because it hit an energy bottleneck
“I don't think it's that. I think that they're buying the maximum, and now they've hit a different bottleneck, which is probably energy.”
Coogan: Ilya Sutskever's SSI recently received a large NVIDIA compute cluster
“SSI, Ilya Sutskiver's new, Neolab is recently got a big cluster from NVIDIA”
Nvidia buys Hugging Face for $12.93B, matching the emoji's decimal code
“NVIDIA agreed to pay 12.9303 billion dollars for Hugging Face, which just happens to be the exact decimal code for the Hugging Face emoji, which of course is the Icon used by the company.”
Coogan: Nvidia assembles $500B AI financing package with Wall Street firms
“Wall Street big names join NVIDIA to build a five hundred billion dollar AI financing package, a landmark lending plan.”
Kim: NVIDIA's $50B data center lease requires a 30-year renewal
“It's like a 15 year lease and it's only fifty billion dollars if they renew the lease after 15 years. So it's like over 30 years if they renew it.”
Baker: Owned 15% of Nvidia and 10% of Tesla Under $2B Caps
“Well, I did own 15% of the video when it was a sub two billion dollar market cap, but I owned 10% of Tesla when it was a sub two billion dollar market cap.”
Kim: Stacking memory directly on GPUs will be a major hardware innovation
“Both chief scientists talked about stacking memory right on top of the GPU or TPU, and that's gonna be a huge innovation in the coming months or years.”
Kim: Nvidia and hyperscalers won't switch to Arm's standalone server CPUs
“I don't really expect the major hyperscalers like Amazon to switch to ARM's, you know product offering. They have their own. And same with NVIDIA. They have their own ARM CPU that they're gonna incorporate and sell.”
Kim: Meta, Google, and Nvidia engineers report severe AI compute shortages
“I met with dozens of engineers at Meta, Google, NVIDIA. And all of them are seeing crazy inference demand and AI compute shortages.”
Samsung supplies HBM to Nvidia for H100 and Blackwell systems
“Semiconductors still make up 30 to 40% of their business and they supply HBM to NVIDIA for the H-one hundred and Blackwell systems.”
Coogan: Supply chain risk ban applies only to government contracts
“There was a perception that this was, like, going to kill Anthropic, because if Nvidia has a government contract, then they can't do any deals with, ah, with Anthropic whatsoever, and that's not true, apparently. The, ah, the supply chain risk is specifically,…”
Nvidia reports $68.1 billion in quarterly revenue, up 73% year-over-year
“Revenue came in at 68.1 billion dollars, up 73% year over year, and 20% quarter on quarter, and this beat consensus estimates by nearly three percent.”
Nvidia has $95.2 billion in locked-in chip supply commitments
“They have 95.2 billion of supply locked in with chip manufacturers.”
Patel: Nvidia's pre-fill CPX chip will release later in 2026
“They launched this thing called CPX, which is a chip made for pre-fill with, you know, prompt processing, creating a KV cache, and also good at, like, video generation and image generation. And that's coming out later this year.”
Jensen Huang: Sold Nvidia stock at a $300M valuation to buy parents a car
“My only regret was at the IPO, after the IPO, I wanted to buy my parents something nice, and so I sold NVIDIA stock at a valuation of three hundred million dollars. The company was at a valuation of three hundred million dollars, and I bought them a Mercedes S…”
Coogan: Nvidia and YC-Backed Startup Plans Moon Hotel by 2032
“A new startup backed by Nvidia and Y Combinator is planning to develop the first hotel on the moon by 2032.”
Coogan: China Sales Will Be 10% of Nvidia Revenue If Restrictions Lift
“This is like 10% of their revenue is going to be in China next year if they really take the handcuffs off.”
Coogan: Brookfield launches $100B AI infrastructure program with Nvidia
“Brookfield today announced the launch of a one hundred billion dollar global AI infrastructure program in partnership with NVIDIA and the Kuwait Investment Authority.”
Hays: xAI and Nvidia will build a 500-megawatt Saudi data center
“Musk's XAI and NVIDIA to develop a data center in Saudi Arabia. It's a 500 megawatt data center in Saudi. XAI is working with NVIDIA and a Saudi Arabian partner to develop a data center in the kingdom. Musk said Wednesday at an event with the crown prince. The…”
Build-A-Bear Workshop's stock is currently outperforming Nvidia.
“It's outperforming Nvidia, I believe.”
Shkreli: Citadel figured out faster matrix multiplication than Nvidia on V100s
“So in the V 100 days, Citadel found a way to do mat moles faster than NVIDIA did. And it was like the most incredible, you know, find ever.”
Machina Labs autonomously manufactured a physical sculpture directly from voice intent
“Basically spoke what he wanted to build, what sculpture he wanted to build, and the full stack of generating the code, running the robots, all were done autonomously. So from speech, from intent, all the way to the physical part, without anybody ever touching …”
Nvidia recently made a substantial investment in Freeform's manufacturing data capabilities
“And that's one of the reasons why like Nvidia made a substantial investment in us recently is they saw what we were doing on the compute and data side, and they want to be a part of it.”
Hays: Masayoshi Son's 2019 Nvidia sale cost him $160B by 2024
“Certain high profile investors sold a huge stake in NVIDIA in 2019 that would be worth one hundred and sixty billion dollars as of last year. That person is Masa, Masayoshi Son.”
Coogan: AMD GPUs Cost Roughly Half the Price of Nvidia Per Flop
“In fact, in terms of naive raw dollars per flop, AMD GPUs are something like half the price of NVIDIA GPUs.”
Coogan: Nvidia Holds Near-Monopoly on AI Training and Inference Capex
“They wound up with a basically something close to a monopoly in terms of share of aggregate industry capex that's spent on training and inference infrastructure for artificial intelligence.”
Sequoia Has Generated Over $70 Billion in Cumulative Gains
“Over the years, it's made its limited partners and its own rainmakers who pocket around a quarter of the gains plus a management fee a total of over seventy billion dollars, thanks to early bets. On future tech darlings like Airbnb, Apple, Google, and Nvidia.”
Investors Have Stopped Analyzing NVIDIA's Fundamentals Due to Meme Status
“I think NVIDIA has become such a meme that people have stopped actually analyzing the underlying business fundamentals. And they're just focused on like the market cap.”
Bill Gurley Has Repeatedly Warned About Nvidia's Related-Party Startup Deals
“Bill Gurley has a nose for bubbles, like he just can smell bubbles, and he's been harping on the he's been harping on the Nvidia related party transaction thing for quite a while.”
Kim: NVIDIA Bought Stakes in Optical Companies Lumentum and Coherent
“They just bought stake in the optical companies, Lumentum and Coherent.”
Jensen Huang: Nvidia Thor Processor is Radiation-Approved for Satellites
“Thor is radiation approved, and we're in satellites.”
Coogan: Nvidia revenue tripled from $60B to $215.9B by FY2026
“Revenue tripled from sixty billion in fiscal year 2024 to 215.9 billion in fiscal year 2026.”
Coogan: Nvidia GB200 NVL72 server rack contains two miles of copper
“NVIDIA's GB 200 NVL 72 server rack uses over 5000 copper cables. There's 72 GPUs wired together, but you need 5000 copper wires to get it all to work together. If you stretched out all of the copper wire in an NVL 72, From one side to another, it would go two …”