The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Partly supported
Coogan: DeepSeek V3 Was ~45x More Training-Efficient Than Competitors
“V-III remains the top ranked open weights model despite being around 45 X more efficient in training than its competition.”
John Coogan Jan 28, 2025 ▶ 36:43 DeepSeek Update, Market Crash, Timeline in Turmoil, Is VC Cooked, Zero Cope Policy
Assertion Partly supported
Anthropic accuses major Chinese AI labs of distilling its Claude model
“Anthropic has accused DeepSeek, Moonshot, Minimax, ZAI, Alibaba, all of distilling Claude”
John Coogan Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 28:53 Demis Is Out as DeepMind CEO, Revolut Founder Yacht Drama, AI’s Great Reverse Bank Run | Diet TBPN
Assertion Supported
Hays: Reflection AI is in talks to raise $1B for open-source models
“It was reported yesterday by the misinformation that reflection, reflection the misinformation reported that reflection one-year-old startup we've had the CEO on before he's in talks to raise one billion to develop open source models to compete with deep sea m…”
Jordi Hays Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:01:36 Weekly Recap: Apple Sitting on $100B, Disney Enters The AI Race, Marc Andreessen, All About GPT-5
Assertion Supported
Andreessen: Most Open-Weights AI Models, Including DeepSeek, Omit Training Data
“What most of the open source open weights models don't have, including, you know, deep seek specifically, What they don't have is they don't have open data, right? Or open corpus, right? So you can't actually see the training data that went, went into them.”
Marc Andreessen Aug 8, 2025 ▶ 19:18 Marc Andreessen on Why Apple Might Miss the Next Platform Shift
Assertion Partly supported
Schneider: DeepSeek's core engineering base is under 30 from top Chinese universities
“The core of deep seeks engineering base are all under 30 and all from those top Chinese universities in that cohort.”
Jordan Schneider Mar 28, 2025 ▶ 11:42 Jordan Schneider (ChinaTalk) On the US-China Power Struggle
Assertion Partly supported
Coogan: DeepSeek rejected venture capital for 0% Bank of China loan
“DeepSeek turned down all their venture capital interest and said, oh yeah, we're just going to take a zero percent loan from the bank of China.”
John Coogan Mar 17, 2025 ▶ 16:34 Joshua Steinman talks cybersecurity and the vulnerabilities of a digital world.
Assertion Supported
Coogan: DeepSeek-R1 API is 27 times cheaper than OpenAI's o1
“The deep seek R one API is currently 27%, 27 times cheaper than open AI's O one for a similar level of quality.”
John Coogan Jan 28, 2025 ▶ 37:04 DeepSeek Update, Market Crash, Timeline in Turmoil, Is VC Cooked, Zero Cope Policy
Assertion Supported
Coogan: DeepSeek develops talent internally without US-trained PhDs
“They are largely developing their own talent. They're not relying on US trained PhDs.”
John Coogan Jan 25, 2025 ▶ 42:28 DeepSeek, Stargate Update, Bees Do Enjoy Honey, Golden Retriever Maxxing, Bring on the Trilly
Assertion Partly supported
DeepSeek leapfrogged other AI labs by training on OpenAI's models
“That's not, didn't cover the fact that it seems like people have been figuring out that they just kind of like were able to leverage OpenAI's models and then like leapfrog using it.”
Jordi Hays Jan 7, 2025 ▶ 2:18:50 The END of Ski Season? (E26)
Assertion Contradicted
Hays: DeepSeek Is Hiring a 'PR Harmony Manager' Amid Distillation Scrutiny
“Deep seek is responding to distill gates and they are looking For a public relations harmony manager.”
Jordi Hays Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 20:52 Kim K's New Energy Drink, Citrini Discourse Rages On, the $100B Meta-AMD Deal | Diet TBPN
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Bishop: DeepSeek will launch its next model within eight or nine days
“And so now everyone's waiting for DeepSeek's next model, which is supposed to launch on or around Lunar New Year, which is next Wednesday the 17th. So we should have some sort of a DeepSeek model in the next eight or nine days.”
Bill Bishop Feb 10, 2026 ▶ 27:11 FULL INTERVIEW: Bill Bishop Thinks China’s Military is Still Deeply Corrupt
Assertion Supported
Andreessen: DeepSeek and most open-weights AI models do not share training data
“What most of the open source open weights models don't have, including, you know, deep seek specifically, What they don't have is they don't have open data, right? Or open corpus, right? So you can't actually see the training data that went, went into them.”
Marc Andreessen Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:24:54 Weekly Recap: Apple Sitting on $100B, Disney Enters The AI Race, Marc Andreessen, All About GPT-5
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