The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Microsoft's $22B Army augmented reality contract vehicle has moved to Anduril
“Who would have bet that eight years later, that Microsoft contract, that twenty-two billion dollar contract vehicle for the architecture of the Army's AR future would move over to Anduril, that we would be launching something like Eagle Eye”
Palmer Luckey Oct 21, 2025 ▶ 45:59 Palmer Luckey Live on TBPN
Assertion Supported
Arnott: Over 90% of internet traffic runs on unprotected subsea cables
“80%, oh sorry, 90% plus of internet traffic. So this particular podcast would be running across subsea cables. Many nations have their gas lights under the waves. These are broadly unprotected, unwatched right now.”
Shane Arnott Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 1:56 The OCEAN Is the Next BATTLEFIELD | Shane Arnott on TBPN April 7th
Assertion Supported
Anduril Building 1M Sq Ft Campus in Long Beach
“Anderl is bringing a one million square foot union built campus along with 5500 jobs to the city of Long Beach.”
John Coogan Jan 24, 2026 ▶ 4:42 China’s acquisition spree, TikTok reaches U.S survival deal, Tech Giants hit by spying | Diet TBPN
Prediction Held up
Hayes: Anduril will acquire defense startups that fail at government distribution
“Andrew roll, I think benefits dramatically from a lot of this, cause there's so many smart teams that are building cool tech that just won't figure out distribution and actually getting contracts. Yeah. Anderil will acquire them and they've already proven that…”
Jordi Hays Dec 31, 2024 ▶ 33:16 Year of Tech in Review (ep25)
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Anduril partners with Rheinmetall to manufacture Barracuda and Fury in Europe
“Over in defense tech world Andrew has partnered with Ryan Mattall, the German the German defense tech company, the prime really to manufacture Barracuda, Barracuda and fury over there.”
John Coogan Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 51:24 Weekly Recap: Elon's Starship Explodes, OpenAI's Defense Contract, Nvidia's Robots, We Test Cluely
Assertion Supported
Arnott: Anduril's Dive-XL can carry dozens of Copperheads and Seabed Sentries
“Within the dive XL, which is our big Underwater submarine or autonomous submarine, I should say, we can put dozens of copperheads in. We can put a dozen seabed sentries.”
Shane Arnott Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 8:09 The OCEAN Is the Next BATTLEFIELD | Shane Arnott on TBPN April 7th
Assertion Supported
Arnott: Anduril's Seabed Sentry is completely wireless and fully electric
“One of the key things I will, ah, lay out is this is a cableless system. So it's completely wireless. So all the systems, as you guys probably know, a Cold War era, you need big cable laying ships to put these, ah, systems on the sea floor, ah, almost impossib…”
Shane Arnott Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 3:09 The OCEAN Is the Next BATTLEFIELD | Shane Arnott on TBPN April 7th
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Anduril's original Anvil drone destroys targets via kinetic impact
“Well, no, no, the original anvil just has just a weight in it, and so it's purely kinetic, and this is the whole story with Polymer figuring out how to shoot down DJI drones, electronic warfare, takeover, and what he realized was that if you just run into it, …”
John Coogan Jan 24, 2025 ▶ 1:09:53 DJI Suspicions, Stargate Turmoil, OpenAI Operator, F40 for the Mind
Assertion Partly supported
Hays: Anduril raised its seed round at around $97M post-money
“The Andrew Seed Round was done at like, 97 post or something like that.”
Jordi Hays Jan 9, 2025 ▶ 1:47:25 Can This Man Save Los Angeles? (Rick Caruso)
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Kevin Hartz's stealth startup Sauron builds residential defense tech
“Sauron, which is their home defense company. Anderil for your home. Palantir for your home.”
John Coogan Dec 11, 2024 ▶ 1:48:57 How we became the fastest growing podcast (ep20)
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Palmer Luckey was mining Bitcoin at age 16
“Palmer Luckey, the founder of Mod Retro and Anderle, Was mining Bitcoin at age 16.”
John Coogan Nov 19, 2024 ▶ 1:28:59 Who's Getting Rich Off Ozempic? (e12)
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Anduril built early sensor towers with off-the-shelf gaming GPUs
“They built this sensor tower, and they were using literally, like, off-the-shelf gaming NVIDIA GPUs to run open-source, like, computer vision algorithms, like ImageNet, and so it was very much, like, hacked together from literally stuff you could buy at, like,…”
John Coogan Nov 14, 2024 ▶ 1:05:43 Low T levels at Y-Combinator (ep9)
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