The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 404 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 15 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Palantir is the only real German-linked tech company created since SAP.
“The most important Germanic company. I hope someone from Germany is listening to this Compte aus Palo Alto is Peter Thiel und ich. It's like the only German company since SAP that's real. They won't listen to us.”
Karp: Traditional SaaS models trick clients into parasitic lock-in
“You would never build a software downstream from value creation. It's all basically, how do I make the client feel like they're getting laid when they're getting fucked? That's the whole way you build a software business and our business.”
Karp: Palantir is the only real Germanic company built since SAP
“The most important Germanic company, I hope someone from Germany is listening to this kommt aus Palo Alto. It's Peter Thiel und ich. It's like the only German company since SAP that's real.”
Dr. Drew: Microdosing and ayahuasca categorically cause severe psychiatric problems
“The AI world is populated by people that microdose on acid and do ayahuasca, which I tell you, it categorically causes severe psychiatric problems. I've seen it my entire career.”
Dr. Drew: Legacy late-night TV hosts will all face cancellation
“So when Colbert gets Gets fired for losing forty million dollars a year. I just looked at that and I go, well, of course. That's gonna happen to all of them. This is just not a model.”
Cuban says government converting Intel grant to equity is awful
“The fact that it's a grant that they're converting, I think is awful, because it was meant to be a grant, and that was the deal the United States of America made, and now we're going back on the paper that we signed as a country.”
Cuban: Trump executes policies Democrats were not smart enough to do
“I am giving Donald Trump all his flowers because he is doing things in a way that the Democrats aren't smart enough to figure out to have done themselves.”
Cuban: Consumers won't abandon misleading AI because users are primed for misinformation
“I wouldn't agree with that, Jordy, because I think people are primed for misinformation these days. You see it in healthcare continuously. You know, you saw it with COVID vaccines. People on their deathbed say, I wish I had taken the vaccine, you know, and you…”
Cuban: AI is merely statistical and will not become smart for a long time
“Particularly because AI is not smart. Right. AI is just statistical right now. And I'm of the mindset that that's not going to change for a long time.”
Cuban: Fearless Student AI Prompters Have More Skill Than Corporate Staff
“Kids coming out of school today that are fearless in the questions they ask and the follow-ups and their ability to prompt, they have more skill than everybody in every major corporation with under a thousand employees.”
Cuban: Trump is executing Bernie Sanders-style economic policies better than Democrats
“He's turned into Bernie Sanders. He literally has, you know, only he's a better salesperson. This is fantastic. I give him credit though. I'm not knocking him, right? I am giving Donald Trump all his flowers because he is doing things in a way that the Democra…”
Andreessen: Chinese Open-Source AI Releases Are Net Positive for the World
“I think it's been net positive for the world that China has been so enthusiastic about open source AI coming out of China which has been great.”
Andreessen: US AI Models Embed Constraints From a Specific Demographic
“I can tell you, the American models have all kinds of constraints also. Right, implemented, you know, usually by a very specific kind of person in a very specific location in the US.”
Andreessen: Training AI Is Legally Distinct From Copying
“The counter argument to that, which, you know, which we believe is, well, it's not copying, right? There's a distinction between training and copying, just like in the real world, there's a distinction between reading a book and copying the book, you know, as …”
Andreessen: Regulatory Victory Laps Over Blocked Mergers Exhibit Survivorship Bias
“I mean, it's kind of taking a victory lap was very disconcerting. And for exactly the reason you said, which is survivorship bias. Right. Which is you pick the one that worked out and then, you know, it's the airplane, the red dots, the airplane, you know, you…”
Coogan: METR Study Found AI Coding Tools Made Developers 19% Slower
“The meter team did these evaluations where they ran a randomized control trial to see how much AI coding tools speed up open source developers, and what they found was that developers said that they expected products like cursor and windsurf to improve them by…”
Shkreli: Mike Bloomberg could be worth $400B-$500B via private equity
“He's taken the Bloomberg dividends and pumped it into a family office that basically Carlisle and all these guys, you know, the Warburg Pincus, all the private equity guys like KKR, They go to him first, and he tosses in, like, five hundred million in each of …”
Shkreli: Quantum computing offers no speedup over classical machines except Shor's algorithm
“The problem is what people don't understand is there are no other algorithms other than Shor's that get you that amazing speed up. So you're better off using the machines we have now. There's no payoff even possible in the future unless we have a new breakthro…”
Shkreli: Quantum computing stocks are worthless shorts with no future market
“The third avenue is of course quantum, and I've spent a lot of time and money on, on quantum computing, and it's just, these stocks are shorts. They're worthless. You know, they, they'll, they'll never be a market for quantum computing.”
Thompson: Intel Is a Failed Company Undone by Its Own Culture
“So there's a real national security element here, and it's just, it's a really tough situation, because Intel is a failed company at this point, and they're, and the reason the failure is so total is because The aspects that drive their failure are the same th…”
DiRico: Marjorie Taylor Greene's weather modification bills lack scientific credibility
“I think it would be both disrespectful to the families involved and baseless and without any technical or scientific credibility if that legislation were to go through”
DiRico: Tropical Storm Barry would have caused Texas flooding regardless
“Tropical Storm Barry, the remnants of which blew into Texas, was going to cause inordinate flooding regardless.”
Parekh Denies Subcontracting His Engineering Work to Junior Developers
“I wish I had the money and I wish that was true, but that is not true. Any of the founders that you know I worked with can watch with that. I have multiple locations like pair program with people, you know, I've written every single inch of the court.”
Huberman: GLP-1 proved people become fat because they eat too much
“It also, by the way, shut down the debate as to why people are fat. It's because they eat too much.”
Huberman: NIH grants often fund already-completed research rather than bold science
“Much of the work that's funded by NIH Here's the dirty secret is already completed because they tend to fund things that are very certain to be completed. And so people put forward grants based on work and preliminary data showing I can do this and it's alread…”
Huberman: Hair loss drugs finasteride and dutasteride can cause permanent sexual dysfunction
“There's this whole thing about people taking finasteride and dutasteride men to keep their hair and getting permanent sexual dysfunction, right? Permanent sexual dysfunction. Some of them killing themselves as a consequence of this.”
Huberman: U.S. Academic Science Should Replace PI Labs With Mission-Driven Incubators
“I think the independent investigator model of science in this country, where it's the Huberman lab, or it's the whatever lab named after the PI, I think that's a flawed model. This is gonna really upset some people. There should be labs named after a particula…”
Haun: Gensler targeted compliant crypto firms while ignoring complete disasters
“Gary Gensler basically picked what should have been the best companies in crypto, the poster children for compliance, and brought enforcement actions against them, and then the complete spectacular disasters didn't bring anything, so until after the fact.”
Hotz: AI application wrappers like Cursor and Windsurf will fail
“And then on top you have, like, completely worthless things like cursor and windsurf you know, these character AI, all these people who think, oh, we're the app, we're gonna get the ARR. No, that worked in the web, it won't work for AI”
Hotz: AI scaling laws deliver linear returns for exponential capital
“AI scaling laws. You can put in exponentially more money to get linear returns.”
Hotz: Waymo robotaxis require approximately 1.2 remote human operators per car
“There's probably about, I would say there's 1.2 operators per car. But it's not, they don't have a steering wheel and pedals. It is an autonomous system that they're probably doing some higher level inputs on.”
Huberman: Most NIH-funded research is completed before grant approval
“Much of the work that's funded by NIH. Here's the dirty secret is already completed because they tend to fund things that are very certain to be completed. And so people put forward grants based on work and preliminary data showing I can do this. And it's alre…”
Academic science should replace PI labs with mission-focused labs
“I think that the independent investigator model of science in this country, where it's the Huberman lab, or it's the whatever lab named after the PI, I think that's a flawed model. This is gonna really upset some people. There should be labs named after a part…”
Prince: Ukraine possesses the most capable military in Europe
“The most capable military in Europe right now is the Ukrainian military.”
Prince: Ukraine's EW and close air support surpass US military
“Their ability to fight against and to even conduct electronic warfare and even close air support in this environment is is leaps and bounds ahead of even what the US military is.”
Trump: Musk will criticize me personally next
“He hasn't said bad about me personally, but I'm sure that'll be next.”
Roy Lee: No Company Ever Dies From Founder Controversy
“There's no company that ever died from a founder being too controversial. You got deal fucking infiltrating with genuine spies. And they're still doing fine, bro. Worker, 17 guys. They're still kicking. Like, no company ever dies from being too controversial. …”
Balaji: DeFi Asset Swaps Will Destroy National Fiat Monopolies
“Cash is universal barter. Cash can be traded for anything, but now anything can be traded for anything, which means there's less need for cash, right? And so all these countries will wake up one day and they'll find, wait a second, just like the newspapers, we…”
Romero: Farcaster Exports US Free Speech and Ignores Foreign Censorship
“Farcaster basically is exporting that as, like, Our social networks policy. So if I get a local jurisdiction somewhere in the world and says, please remove these activists from Farcaster to quote Elon they can shake their fists at the sky.”
Tan: There will be very few successful defense tech companies
“I don't think, I agree more with Dellian comments about that there's not going to be many successful defense companies.”
Tan: San Francisco would still be dying without OpenAI
“Without OpenAI success, SF would be dead and still dying.”
Kovacevich: Federal antitrust agencies targeted Big Tech companies before finding violations
“I think what happened in those cases was like, they had the target in mind and then they worked to find a case they could bring. Right. And so I think that's why, like, you know, these cases have like varying degrees of strength to them because they started wi…”
Sankar: Defense acquisition executive order could prepare US to avoid WWIII
“I think it is the single biggest change that could prepare us to avoid world war three here.”
Asparouhov: Nvidia exported $20B in chips to Singapore resold to China
“The, you know, articles that came out yesterday talking about you know, NVIDIA basically getting, you know, sort of slapped on the wrist because they were like, we're exporting. I forget what the number was, but like, twenty billion dollars per year of chips t…”
Rubio's policies revoked 40 visas for biotech and CS PhDs at Northeastern
“40, 40 visas already. 40 people's lives Fucking ruined. Because Marco Rubio thinks that it's cool to pick fights with biotech and CS PhDs.”
LiveKit CEO: Hallucination is a feature in voice AI interfaces
“Well, you know, it's one of those things that I think is funny, like, people talk about hallucinations as this bad thing but in a lot of ways for, like, kind of this speech-to-speech interaction model where you're talking to an AI, Hallucination is a feature.”
Wischoff: LPs Say 80% of Fund II/III VCs Lack Portfolio Construction Models
“And so they were saying that like, you know, 80% of the meetings they take and these are folks on fund two and fund three, like clearly have never opened up a spreadsheet and like walk through portfolio construction.”
Wischoff: VC partners write small seed checks to minimize personal reputational risk
“They're so active in seed because the individual investors are like, well, hey, if we take thirty million and divide that out by a ton of two, three million dollar checks, if we lose a few, it's not such a blow to the reputation of that, you know, partner at t…”