The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 404 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 15 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Thompson: Silicon Valley Hurt Itself With Naive Views on Military Duty
“I think there, you know, just in general, there is this very naive view of the world that doesn't understand why militaries are important and necessary, and I think Silicon Valley got itself in a lot of trouble by giving in to this naive mindset that we have n…”
CEOs will slash headcount regardless of actual AI efficiency gains
“So again, it doesn't really matter whether or not a company is actually getting tremendous efficiency from AI. Every CEO is going to do this.”
Hays: Anthropic Battles Pentagon Over Surveillance and Lethal AI Uses
“It's also locked in a battle with the Defense Department over how its clawed suite are used after it told the Pentagon it couldn't be used for domestic surveillance or autonomous lethal activities.”
Trump: Tech Companies Must Build Own Power Plants Under New Pledge
“We're telling the major tech companies that they have the obligation to provide for their own power needs. They can build their own power plants as part of their. Factory so that no one's prices will go up and in many cases prices of electricity will go down f…”
Gurley: Chinese Open-Source AI Is Biggest Threat to US Dominance
“I said then, and I still believe now, the biggest threat to the U.S. Let's call it AI hegemony is, is the Chinese open source models, and the developers even in the US that are working on their own are using those, and you can see that on all the tables that a…”
Hays: Terraform Administrator Accuses Jane Street of Insider Trading
“The court-appointed administrator of Do Kwan's Terraform Labs alleged that Jane Street used non-public information about Terraform insiders to trade the play-by-play.”
Erebor Bank preemptively partners with US intelligence without waiting for court orders
“For example, one of the things that we're doing is rather than working with the intelligence community only under court order to kind of go and, you know, respond to when they think there's crime going on on the platform, we're preemptively going out there and…”
Erebor Bank will strictly follow US law and ignore foreign legal rulings
“We're saying, you know what, we're an American company, we're an American bank that supports American companies. And we will comply with US law, but we will not comply with spurious rulings from people who have no real jurisdiction or authority over us.”
An Oculus executive secretly intercepted Luckey's invitation to ring the NYSE bell
“Back in the Oculus days, when we sold the company to Meta, one of the first things that happened was New York Stock Exchange emailed our contact info, email, and they asked if I would come and ring the bell of the New York Stock Exchange.
Sounds pretty cool, r…”
Huberman: Most men 40+ should probably take 2.5 to 5mg Tadalafil
“The basic takeaway is that most every male, 40 and older, should probably be taking somewhere between 2.5 and five milligrams of Tadalafil, not necessarily for erectile function, although it will augment that as well, but to lower blood pressure and to improve…”
Bryan Johnson says organic products typically test worse than non-organic foods
“When we test organic, It typically performs worse than non-organic on many, many variables.”
Bryan Johnson predicts 'Don't Die' will become the world's dominant ideology
“Our primary hypothesis is as this evolves, the major shift is humans are going to want life. Like, you know, if AI takes our jobs and they take what we do and we want to find new identity, there's going to be a major shift towards don't die. And it's going to …”
Bryan Johnson predicts Blueprint's platform will exceed the FDA in value
“I think that we will exceed them in value in many core areas. Because they, you, they can take, you know, well-structured, well-funded clinical trials. But then other things like peptides that are very promising. They're not going to have the clinical work.”
Coogan: Reasoning and deep research models have basically solved LLM hallucinations
“Or they talk about hallucinated facts and LLM responses. Something that's basically been solved by deep Deep research and reasoning models”
Thornton: Future combat assets will be too small for hypersonic missiles
“My personal belief, and this is, again, sort of a contrarian take, I think future warfighting has to be so decentralized that most of the assets used to fight wars are actually not large enough to consider taking out with a hypersonic missile.”
Jensen Huang: Notion That AI Will Replace Software Companies Is Illogical
“There's this notion that the tool in the software industry is in decline. And we've replaced by AI. You could tell because there's a whole bunch of software companies whose stock prices are under a lot of pressure because somehow AI is going to replace them. I…”
O'Laughlin: SaaS stocks are mispriced for mainframe-level low growth
“The adjustment period is the big problem, because all the stocks are priced, like, they're not gonna be mainframes”
Coogan: AI agents will entirely replace human GitHub commits by year-end
“I would expect like 70%, and I would expect Codex to be at 30%, and no more human commits because it's working.”
Hays: Anthropic's ad campaign plants false impression of ChatGPT ads
“It's brilliant, well-timed, and incredibly strategic for a few reasons I'll outline below, and it's designed to plant a false impression of Chad GPT's forthcoming ad product in the minds of hundreds of millions of Americans.”
Hays: Claude has lost the race to reach billions of users
“Anthropic has already lost the race to serve billions of people, right? I don't think that they're, when you look at Gemini's sort of traction, OpenAI's, ChatGPT traction, like it seems like the race to get to Three billion monthly actives is kind of over. I d…”
Altman calls Anthropic's Super Bowl ad deceptive
“The main thing that's wrong with the ads is, like, using a deceptive ad to criticize deceptive ads feels, I don't know, something doesn't sit right with me about that.”
Patel: Anthropic's $300B revenue target for 2030 is too low
“And when Anthropic says in their funding, like, hey, we're gonna have three hundred billion dollars of revenue by the end of the decade, and it's like, actually I think that number's too low. Because the economic value of what they're gonna create is gonna be …”
Coogan: 17% of Tracked Tech Figures Appeared in Epstein Emails
“Big tech alerts that around 17% of the people that we track with this account are on the Epstein emails.”
Hays: Jeffrey Epstein Invested in Coinbase at a $400M Valuation
“Looking back and seeing, seeing even, even after the original conviction, how many companies he was able to get in, he got into Coinbase at 400.”
Warsh: The wealthiest extract the primary gains from central bank QE
“Where the gains have been extracted by the most well-to-do, by the most sophisticated, who see that the central banks are, to one degree or another, trying to get asset prices up to drag up the real economy. They get the joke, they have been willing to play th…”
Steinberger: Model Context Protocols are crap and cannot scale like native CLIs
“Because my premise is MCPs are crap. Doesn't really scale. People build like all kinds of weird search things around it. But you know what scales? CLIs. Agents know Unix.”
Steinberger: Users will stop subscribing to SaaS startups in favor of bespoke agent software
“You don't subscribe to random startups anymore that, that build like this common subset of what you need. You just have your own hyper-personalized software that solves exactly your problem. And it's also free.”
Chinese Vice-Premier: China seeks no trade surplus, wants to be world's market
“We never seek trade surplus. On top of being the world's factory, we hope to be the world's market, too.”
Ben Affleck doubts AI will ever generate whole movies or meaningful writing
“I actually don't think it's very likely that it can, it's going to be able to write anything meaningful, or, and in particular, That it's going to be making movies like from whole cloth, like Tilly Norwood, like that's bullshit. I don't think that's going to h…”
Thinking Machines terminates CTO Barrett Zoff due to alleged unethical conduct
“Breaking Thinking Machines has terminated its CTO, Barrett Zoff, due to unethical conduct.”
Hayes: David Solomon Was Told to Shut Down Marcus or Resign
“DJ D Sol was told to shut down Marcus and Consumer, or get out of the job. So he cut all of Marcus except for savings.”
Musk says xAI will exceed all combined AI compute in five years
“Elon Musk says that XAI will have more AI compute than everyone else combined in less than five years.”
Baker: Space data centers will be the world's most important development
“I think the most important thing that's going to happen in the world in the next Three to four years is data centers in space.”
Baker: Cooling space data centers is virtually free via dark-side radiators
“In space, cooling is free. You just put a radiator on the dark side of the satellite, and it's as close to absolute zero as you can get. So all that goes away, and that is a vast amount of cost.”
Hays: Steam has won the hardware war, obsoleting Xbox and Apple VR
“Steam has won. There's no reason to get an Xbox. There's no reason to get an Apple VR headset. They all run on Linux. It's the ultimate computer.”
Sarah Friar says federal backstops reduce financing costs for frontier AI chips
“The backstop, the guarantee that allows the financing to happen. That can really drop the cost of the financing, but also increase the loan to value, so the amount of debt that you can take on top of an equity portion for some federal backstop for chip investm…”
Sam Altman predicts US government becomes insurer of last resort for AI
“At some level, when something gets sufficiently huge, whether or not they are on paper, the federal government is kind of the insurer of last resort. As we've seen in various financial crises and insurance companies screwing things up. So, I guess, given the m…”
Tyler Hogge claims OpenAI seeks government guarantees to appease private AI lenders
“When I hear these comments from Sarah Fryer, what I'm hearing is we have a bunch of lenders that would happily finance this if there's a government guarantee that they won't lose money, and that's very different.”
Gurman: Apple leadership views its initial AI rollout as a disaster
“I think they recognize that it's been a disaster. I mean, still the biggest thing to me is they were completely caught off guard by, ah, ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, back at the end of 22, into twenty-twenty-three”
Yan: Day-one VC insiders permanently scar a protocol's credible neutrality
“If there are insiders from day one, it doesn't matter how much dispersion of supply, mindshare, talent, et cetera. There is the sort of like the big bang moment will always be there and will always sort of like a scar on the record of the thing.”
Hays: OpenAI could swap ChatGPT's model for Claude and retain users
“OpenAI could swap out the underlying model,
And still accrue the vast majority of value.
So, hypothetically, you could have ChatGPT, chat.com, powered not by GPT-Five, but instead powered by Gemini or Claude, and still see positive user growth, monetization, b…”
Palmer Luckey says starting high-risk startups after having children is irresponsible
“Once you have a family, you have a sort of fiduciary duty to your family to maximize their quality of life. There's no life hack that says that you're allowed to degrade the quality of your child's childhood because daddy wanted to have that grind set mindset,…”
GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen calls the Meta Quest a joke
“When I think about the MetaQuest, I mean, it's a joke.”
Cohen predicts computers and AI will go after humans soon
“At some point, the computers are going after the humans, and I don't think it's that far away.”
Salesforce Research invented AI prompt engineering, claims Marc Benioff
“We invented prompt engineering, the first prompt right here at Salesforce Research, commercialized by others, of course.”
Benioff claims Salesforce sold cybersecurity company Wiz to Google
“You know, we just sold a company to Google, which is Wiz, the security company.”
Ohanian: Google is terrible at product innovation and not a threat
“Even if, you know, the Googles of the world launch some janky try on experience, like we know those companies are just terrible at innovating product and aren't really a threat.”
Skilled workers will become more valuable as AI automates operational tasks.
“What does the business of the future look like? Actually, the interesting thing is workers become more valuable, like actually trained workers become more valuable. This is exactly the opposite of what people are saying, but it's true. The person at the top is…”