The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 404 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 15 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Huang: AI labs will prove extremely profitable within months
“I believe within months you're going to realize that these companies are extremely profitable.”
Yacht broker sues Revolut CEO Nik Storonsky over $20 million commission
“Cecil Wright and Partners, a luxury yacht broker filed the legal action in London's High Court over Stronsky's acquisition of Nixie, a 335 foot vessel with four terraces. The broker alleged in a court filing that it was negotiating the purchase for Stronsky wh…”
Tae Kim: NVIDIA United the Tech Industry Against Anthropic
“I think it's been very impressive what they've been, they've basically united the entire tech industry against Anthropic in the last, like, three, four days.”
Kim: $200B in Current Hyperscaler AI CapEx Will Generate Massive Free Cash Flow
“So that's why you're investing two hundred billion dollars now, and in a year or two, we're gonna see insane amounts of free cash flow.”
Kalanick: Companies Seek Federal Preemption to Achieve Regulatory Capture
“Federal preemption is good
When you are pro regulatory capture.”
Kalanick Claims Uber Never Pushed Regulations to Advantage Itself
“I never did that.
Like we never did that.
We basically never ever
Proposed or pushed any rule that would be beneficial to us versus somebody else.”
Kalanick: 2017 Would Have Been Different If Uber Partnered With a16z
“If we did it business at Uber, my 2017 would have been a different year.”
Cowen: Attempts to Outlaw or Sanction Chinese Open-Source AI Will Fail
“Open source and is coming and is here, whether we like it or not. Of course, a lot of it will be from China. We should allow American competitors to proceed on an even footing, but basically the attempt to outlaw it or ban it or use sanctions against it is goi…”
Proposed Billionaire Tax Has Harmed California and Will Wreck It
“I hope the billionaire tax fails. It will wreck California. If it passes, it's already harmed California.”
Bloomberg: Phia extension injected affiliate codes during checkout without user interaction
“Bloomberg tested the FIA mobile browser extension across more than 50 websites and found that during the checkout process, FIA opened a background tab without user interaction and injected its own referral code that overrode legitimate referrals from other pub…”
Ben Thompson: Rockstar should charge $200 for GTA VI
“No, they should be charging like 200 dollars.”
Thompson: Regulators block defensive mergers while ignoring emerging market dominance
“The moment that a company, an industry, wants to consolidate, needs to consolidate, is the moment regulators are most likely to stop them consolidating. And whereas the actual time when action would matter, like when it, when it's growing and a company is maki…”
Jeremy Giffon criticizes traditional finance as extractive leveraged buyout culture
“I do think that it's notable that, like, the current paradigm in which we live, the largest and most important finance firms come out of a Culture of leveraged buyout, which it's extractive insofar as the primary goal is to make a thing more profitable. The co…”
Govtech vendors' main skill is securing contracts, not delivering software
“The primary skill these vendors have is securing government contracts. Huge moat. Delivery of quality product. Be damned.”
Coogan: Self-driving technology is commoditizing as fast as LLMs
“My latest hot take is that self-driving technology is commoditizing as fast as LLM technology and that companies that take it seriously and actually prioritize it. It is not some insane insane tech breakthrough that cannot be implemented in other vehicles. It …”
Coogan: Alibaba has repeatedly distilled Anthropic's Claude model
“Anthropix's Alibaba has distilled, clawed many, many times, and I saw a chart of the amount of tokens that are getting resold.”
Paul: Humans will live forever by transferring our minds into robots
“Yeah, we're all going to live forever. Like we're just going to like transfer our mind into some robotic body. And so I think this whole, like, health wave.”
Prince: A Golf Course Uses More Water Than All US Data Centers
“A golf course uses more water than probably all the data centers in the United States over, over the course of a year.”
Prince: Spanish and Italian Soccer Leagues Sued Cloudflare Rather Than Partnering
“La Liga in, in in, in Spain and the league in Italy have decided that instead of partnering with us to take this down, they would sue us instead.”
Karp: Primary risk to Palantir and tech is uninformed regulation and nationalization
“So the primary risk, honestly, to Palantir and a lot of these other countries is, and then it's going to be nationalized, before nationalized, it's going to be regulated by people who don't understand this.”
Karp: Blaming competitive layoffs on AI invites extreme political backlash
“Like if you run around saying AI allowed you to fire two thirds of your workforce and you did it because maybe your competitors kicking your ass. That could, that is a really like, you might as well just go sign up for Bernie Sanders manifest.”
Gerstner: Anthropic is fastest-growing company in history of capitalism
“OpenAI has not blown away their numbers. Google has not blown away their numbers. Like numbers have been good, but the fundamental driver of outperformance in terms of offtake of AI revenues has been Anthropic, which is the fastest growing company in the histo…”
Gerstner: An AI Data Center Moratorium Would Cause a US Recession
“A data center moratorium would thrust us straight into a recession and high unemployment.”
Gerstner: Traditional Series B software metrics get zero VC interest today
“If it's series A, you had a couple million in revenue, and then series B, I don't know, you had twenty million in revenue. Shit, you would have a line out the door of people who wanted to do that deal. There's a, you wouldn't have a single taker today. Not a s…”
Hays: Ferrari Will Never Be Competitive in EVs
“It's basically proving that Ferrari, I don't think can ever, I don't think they'll ever be competitive in EVs.”
Sunwalker: Nvidia investments in neoclouds resemble revenue swaps
“You see NVIDIA investing in a lot of Neo clouds that go buy their GPUs. They help start these new, new clouds. And then you have of course, like NVIDIA investing in, in AI labs that end up being like downstream consumers of these GPUs. And so like, I think in …”
AI will undoubtedly lead to fewer software engineering jobs, says Lynch
“So what does that mean if you're a software engineer? It means there's gonna be fewer jobs, aren't you? Without a doubt. Fewer jobs. For now.”
Chesky: AI Eliminates the Need for Pure People Managers
“I think AI is gonna create, like, the equivalent of an AI founder mode, which is now you gotta be even more hands-on, and I don't think in the era of AI there should be any pure people managers, because you're so close To the details, to the data, that everyon…”
Cohen: eBay's $5.5B opex and 11,500 headcount make no sense
“They're spending five and a half billion dollars on operating expenses on eleven billion dollar business that Has no inventory in its asset lights. So, it just, there's 11 and a half thousand employees, and it doesn't make sense.”
Jensen Huang Calls AI Existential Threats and Job Destruction Claims Ridiculous
“On the other hand scaring people with things like saying nonsensical things, which are not gonna happen, that this is an existential threat to humanity. There's 20% chance that is existential. That's ridiculous. That it's gonna wipe out 50% of new college grad…”
Huang: Forcing open-source AI onto foreign tech stacks harms US interests
“It would be extremely foolish to create two ecosystems, the open source ecosystem, and it only runs on the Chinese tech, a foreign tech stack, and a closed ecosystem, and that runs on the American tech stack. I think that that would be a horrible outcome for t…”
Coogan: MedV runs 800 fake doctor Facebook accounts to sell GLP-1s
“They are apparently running 800 fake doctor accounts on Facebook to sell compounded GLP ones. Shiel Monat verified that the accounts are not actually doctors.”
Hays: Data center moratorium would be catastrophic for AI progress
“The act has a long way to go, and it seems like the odds of it getting into law are low, but not zero. It's safe to say that as written, the requirements in the bill would be an incredible gift to America's adversaries and catastrophic for overall AI progress.”
Hays: Uber would be worth over $1T if Kalanick remained CEO
“His take, which I totally agree with is it's hard to, if Travis had stayed in the role, It's hard to imagine Uber being worth less than something like a trillion dollars today.”
Shkreli: Peptide craze is driven by psychological issues and institutional distrust
“I'm very concerned about the peptide craze. I think it comes mostly out of psychological issues which we'll discuss. The need for identity, control distrust of institutions, all kinds of things like that are leading to what we're seeing today.”
Marchione: Legalizing peptide compounding is the main way to minimize risk
“People are taking these compounds, right? They're already using them at scale, right? And the way to minimize risk, the main way to minimize risk is to move them from category two to category one, right? To legalize them because the risky thing is the dodgy su…”
Shkreli: No clinical trial of BPC-157 will ever work
“I would bet anything. I would bet anything. No trial of BPC would work.”
Hays: Elon Musk's lunar mass driver keynote is an IPO pump
“But still, this seems like a, just kind of a blatant sci-fi pump going into the IPO.”
Coogan: OpenAI offers PE firms a 17.5% minimum return
“OpenAI is offering private equity firms a guaranteed minimum return of 17.5%, as well as early access to models not yet in public release.”
Cuban: Humanoid Robot Startups Will Fail Miserably Within Ten Years
“I think everybody's making this push for humanoid robots. I think they might have a five-year lifespan and then they'll fail miserably, maybe 10.”
Cuban: Requiring Foreign Amazon Seller Bonds Would Skyrocket US Manufacturing
“And yeah, and legislatively you could fix it in a heartbeat. You got to post a bond. 25,000 dollar bond, depending on the size of the market, maybe more, and then give everybody 90 days to check it, and all of a sudden the whole industry changes, and American …”
Karp: Only vocational training or neurodivergence secures workers' future in AI
“There are two that everybody's worried about like their future, but there are basically two ways to know you have a future. One, you have some vocational training. So it's like, or two, you're neurodivergent.”
Alex Karp says AI job loss sparks 'hang the rich' backlash
“I think the American version, if we're not careful, is not going to be the German version. I think it's going to be hang the rich. I, It's like, I think it's gonna be, not protect everybody else. It's gonna be like, look, this is too dangerous, and we're gonna…”
Hays: Anthropic Officially Designated as a Federal Supply Chain Risk
“This also coincided with Anthropic, I guess, officially being designated as a supply chain risk”
Thompson: Private AI Labs Imposing Unilateral Limits Invites Severe State Backlash
“Unilaterally imposing restrictions, even if those restrictions are good, isn't just an issue as far as who rules us, the democracy issue, that sort of Palmer Luckey, I think very eloquently raised. It's inviting Very bad outcomes for those asserting that in ge…”
Thompson: China's Dependence on Taiwan Chips Creates Safer Geopolitical Equilibrium
“I think it is a safer equilibrium To have China dependent on Taiwan than to try to cut them off from Taiwan while we are dependent on Taiwan. Taiwan is 70 miles off the coast of China. It's not an ideal position in the world for us to have a dependency on it a…”
Thompson: US Government Actively Trying to Hurt Anthropic Over Subservience
“The goal isn't to, fine, we just won't use Anthropic. I do think the goal is to hurt Anthropic. And you're, if you're not going to be subservient to us, you're not going to be allowed to build a power base, period.”
Thompson: Trusting Dario Amodei Over Congress Abandons Democratic Governance
“You could say Congress isn't gonna do anything, therefore, Amadei should. Just appreciate that is giving up on the democratic process and saying we should have unelected, unaccountable individuals making weighty decisions.”