Nov 19, 2024 · 3h 19m · tbpn
Who's Getting Rich Off Ozempic? (e12)
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In this episode, John Coogan and Jordy Hays explore the science, adoption economics, and wide-ranging consumer impacts of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs like Ozempic. Alongside this deep dive, they analyze emerging venture capital models, artificial intelligence frontiers, American deep-tech manufacturing, and the high-agency work ethic driving top founders.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 58.1% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 6.3 Guest teaching 1.7 Guest disagreement 0.8 The hosts pushing back 0.9
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 32:48 Callie Means Tank vs Fish Argument
Jordy challenges the simplistic medicalized worldview by raising Callie Means' critique that treating obesity with drugs ignores systemic food problems rather than cleaning the fish tank.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 2:25:30 John's Inversion of Media Hit PiecesJohn rejects Katherine Boyle's conventional defensive framing of media hits, insisting that actively courting and amplifying negative press generates superior traffic and long-term brand equity.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 1:21:00 Jordy's Venture Career PlaybookJordy educates the audience and host on institutional VC career mechanics, warning against the trap of family offices and emphasizing high deal velocity over passive associate titles.
The host holds their own ▶ 47:44 John's Semaglutide Adoption Pop QuizJohn demonstrates command over the pharmaceutical market data by revealing to Jordy that actual active semaglutide users total roughly 50,000 rather than the presumed 30 million.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Size Gong: Radiant Nuclear's $100M Series C | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | John leads the intro by celebrating Radiant Nuclear's $100M Series C, detailing their micro-reactor engineering specs and operational advantages over diesel generators. Jordy participates collaboratively, riffing on potential applications like nuclear-powered wave pools. Both maintain a high-energy, celebratory rapport. | |
| The Science and Origins of Ozempic and GLP-1s | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | John delivers an in-depth breakdown of the biochemical origins of GLP-1 agonists, citing Scott Alexander's writing on Gila monster venom and neural satiety mechanisms. Jordy contributes relevant historical context about Novo Nordisk, animal pancreas insulin extraction, and metabolic health. The dynamic is an informative, cooperative deep dive. | |
| Semaglutideonomics: Market Modeling and the Business of Weight Loss | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | John systematically models semaglutide market penetration, breaking down top-down and bottom-up variables and quizzing Jordy on active patient counts. Jordy adds color regarding compounding pharmacies, public equities like Hims & Hers, and healthcare incentives. Both demonstrate sharp financial and market fluency. | |
| Listener Mailbag: Tech Hubs, Hardware HQs, and Venture Careers | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | John reads listener mail regarding geographical talent hubs, manufacturing headquarters, and venture career ladders. Jordy provides detailed advisory framing on VC pathways, emphasizing deal volume over firm prestige. The dynamic is structured and collaborative advice-giving. | |
| Promoted Post: Cars and Bids Features Porsche GT3 RS | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Jordy and John transition into a promoted segment for Cars and Bids, reviewing a 2024 Porsche GT3 RS listing. John shares his appreciation for Doug DeMuro's deep automotive teardowns. The tone is entirely enthusiastic and promotional. | |
| Palmer Luckey's Early Bitcoin Mining at Age Sixteen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | John highlights Palmer Luckey's teenage Bitcoin mining before pivoting to a viral post about adult Lego collections. Jordy humorously argues that net worth dictates whether an eccentric hobby is perceived as weird or respectable. Both align smoothly on the commentary. | |
| Workplace Attitude and the Alan Watts Philosophy | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | John and Jordy review social posts mocking workplace dread, quoting Alan Watts and discussing Delphi AI clones. John explains how fine-tuned LLMs function effectively as structured search engines for creator catalogs. The tone remains lighthearted and banter-driven. | |
| Work Ethic and the True Purpose of Employment | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | The hosts discuss high-profile tech talent transitions, focusing on former Snap product chief Jack Brody joining Suno Music. John contextualizes Lightspeed's backing and the founding team's pedigree. Jordy underscores the executive market dynamics behind off-market recruitment. | |
| Promoted Post: Colossus Review Publication Launch | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | John and Jordy cover Patrick O'Shaughnessy's launch of Colossus Review print publication. John discusses the lasting aesthetic value and physical permanence of curated print magazines over ephemeral digital feeds. The conversation is fully supportive. | |
| Promoted Post: Brooks Brothers Weekend Prep Style | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | A quick promotional spot for Brooks Brothers weekend wear leads into discussing Ramp employees publicly campaigning for raises. John explains accredited investor thresholds and how compensation re-enters the venture ecosystem. The hosts share an aligned, playful dynamic. | |
| Nick Huber's Cold Outreach and Polarizing Strategy | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | John and Jordy analyze Nick Huber's polarizing cold outreach strategy and Scott Belsky's reflections on momentum as a defensible moat. John breaks down how early venture momentum differs from vanity traction. Both agree on the compounding benefits of market velocity. | |
| Promoted Post: Major Brands Return to X Advertising | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | The hosts review major advertisers returning to X and analyze European tax structures causing Norwegian startup founders to relocate. John humorously suggests an unrealized capital gains credit to stimulate reinvestment. Jordy echoes the critique of wealth tax proposals. | |
| Stripe Launches Agentic AI Developer SDK | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | John and Jordy discuss Stripe launching an SDK designed specifically for AI agent payments and token billing. Jordy points out the contrast with crypto narratives asserting agents would exclusively use digital assets. John elaborates on the technical implications of automated agent-driven architecture. | |
| Promoted Post: Ferrari Tailor-Made 812 Competizione | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Following a luxury car promotion, the hosts react to Red Lobster's turnaround strategy under their young CEO and Josh Kushner's Fifth Avenue investment thesis. John highlights how disciplined capital allocation beats narrative hype. The segment is analytical and aligned. | |
| Katherine Boyle on Hit Pieces and Media Playbooks | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | John details Katherine Boyle's framework on media hit pieces, outlining his own contrarian playbook of actively courting contentious journalism for audience growth and SEO leverage. Jordy agrees, highlighting how attacks often solidify core fan loyalty. | |
| Promoted Post: DuPont Registry Bugatti Chiron and Jordy's Law | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | The hosts feature a Bugatti Chiron Pure Sport from DuPont Registry and discuss Jordy's Law regarding fund size to vehicle expenditure ratios. They also cover Apple's M4 Max chip performance benchmarks against desktop GPUs. The atmosphere is casual and humorous. | |
| TikTok Algorithmic Influence and Supporting American Platforms | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | John and Jordy analyze data linking heavy TikTok screen time to geopolitical sentiment shifts, championing domestic platforms like Meta. They also touch on the failed Capri and Tapestry luxury merger, noting luxury goods' role in consumer expenditure. Both share strong mutual agreement. | |
| Perplexity AI Out-Executing Legacy Search Engines | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | John and Jordy evaluate Perplexity AI's agile UI execution and search market share gains relative to legacy search engines. John explains the product trade-offs between direct answer synthesis and traditional link aggregation. Both praise Perplexity's feature velocity. | |
| Technological Optimism and Inspiring Future Generations | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Discussing technological optimism, the hosts celebrate ambitious hardware breakthroughs from SpaceX Starship catches to sci-fi television like The Expanse. John advocates for cultural storytelling where technology represents human capability rather than dystopia. | |
| Jamie Dimon on Independence and Bossless Autonomy | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | The conversation moves from Jamie Dimon's comments on operational autonomy to San Francisco real estate dynamics and Gwen Shotwell's execution record at SpaceX. John provides historical context on Shotwell's integral leadership alongside Elon Musk. | |
| Reinventing Careers and Rejecting Age Limitations | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | John reflects on mid-career reinvention stories and recounts his early interactions with Ginkgo Bioworks during his Y Combinator days at Soylent. He explains Ginkgo's early automated biological testing pipeline and fundraising inflection points. | |
| Jensen Huang's Paranoia and Feeding the Internal Dog | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | The hosts discuss Jensen Huang's persistent paranoia regarding Nvidia's market positioning and the internal psychology of high-wealth startup workforces. Jordy emphasizes maintaining hungry corporate cultures, while John analyzes executive communication strategies. | |
| The Golden Age of Crypto Products and Bridge M&A | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | John and Jordy examine Stripe's acquisition of Bridge and the growing maturity of crypto infrastructure products. John also covers Francois Chollet's departure from Google, detailing his foundational contributions to Keras and machine learning benchmarks. | |
| High School Founder Hits One Million Dollar MRR | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | The episode concludes with the story of a high school founder reaching $1M MRR and an analysis of American passenger rail versus freight infrastructure. John shares a personal story of traveling by train during his startup days, framing the experience as ideal for monk-mode deep work. |
Statements from this episode (55)
Coogan: Radiant Nuclear raised $100M Series C to mass-produce 1MW microreactors
“And he writes we at Radiant Nuclear are announcing our one hundred million dollar series C today. Our plan is to test new our new reactor design at INL. That's the Idaho National Laboratory. Begin mass manufacturing reactors and deliver one megawatt reactors t…”
Coogan: Radiant Nuclear is building shipping-container-sized 1MW microreactors
“They're replacing the, Diesel generators that are typically one megawatt. So it's not like the big nuclear power plants with the smokestacks. It's essentially the size of a shipping container.”
Coogan: Governments will be initial buyers of Radiant microreactors
“Obviously this is going to be heavily, you know, purchased by the government first and then, you know, large corporations and, you know, industrial companies.”
Coogan: Hospital care is 31% of US health spending, outpatient drugs 8%
“Hospital care is 31% of U.S. National health care expenses. Actual drugs, outpatient prescription drugs is only eight percent.”
Coogan: Science Rushes to Map Healthy Habits to Wonder Drug Mechanisms
“Whenever we discover a new drug, scientists rush to demonstrate that all those lifestyle changes, the ones you should do anyway, actually work through the same mechanism as the wonder drug.”
Hays: The 'forward deployed GP' venture model will become widespread
“I expect forward deployed GPs to come back, right? Because like it needs to, I mean, Founders Fund basically already does this.
[1535] John Coogan: I mean, it exists.
[1536] John Coogan: Yeah.
[1536] John Coogan: Trey is that.
[1538] Jordy Hays: And Delian.
…”
Hays: GLP-1 weight-loss drugs can increase body fat percentage through muscle loss
“While GLP ones can make you lose weight, they can actually make you fatter as a percentage of your bot, you know, as a percentage of fat to other aspects of the body. So that could mean that what that, that means at a high level is you can actually lose muscle…”
Hays: Men should take exogenous testosterone for three months to build habits
“I think more guys should do three months of exogenous testosterone is because if you can use a drug to temporarily put yourself in a state that makes being healthy easier, then that gives you a chance to actually build healthy habits.”
Coogan: Giving semaglutide to 25% of obese Americans would cost $500B annually
“Suppose that a quarter of the obese people in America want semaglutide. That's thirty-five million prescriptions. Semaglutide costs about 15,000 per year. Multiply it out, that's five hundred billion dollars. And Americans currently spend three hundred billion…”
Coogan: Only 50,000 Americans are currently active weekly semaglutide users for obesity
“How many people do you think are taking it? Like weekly active users... It's 50,000. Isn't that crazy?”
Coogan: Medical practice consistently shifts over time from lifestyle advice to drug prescriptions
“There's some condition that doctors recommend a lifestyle changes for. Then an exciting new medication comes out and over a generation or so, doctors go from demanding the lifestyle change to gesturing at the lifestyle change before prescribing the medication …”
Hays: Nobody makes generic exenatide because it requires twice-daily doses
“The one X, Xenotide, Xenotide, which was the first one, the patents are expired, and nobody's even bothered to make it generic, because you have to take it twice a day.”
Hays: Hims & Hers has nearly 100,000 weight management subscribers
“They have a broader weight management offering. I think they have multiple products, but they have nearly a 100,000 subscribers. So that could be why they have the stock's been ripping”
Coogan: Compounded semaglutide revenue risks elimination once FDA drug shortages end
“The other issue with the compounding just from a business perspective is that I think that you're only allowed to do it from an FDA perspective when it's on shortage. And so you can build up this revenue stream and you can get subscribers, but then it could ge…”
Coogan: Canada has not approved semaglutide for weight loss
“America does have a huge advantage here. Like Canada hasn't even approved it. Like we really are on the forefront.”
Hays: Working at mid-tier VC funds or family offices is a dead end
“The death zone is working at a mid fund or a family office and not being able to do a lot of deals because then you're not building up the brand value of working at a great firm and you're just not doing enough volume of deals so that you can build up a track …”
Hays: Aspiring VCs should prioritize high deal volume over prestige titles
“My serious advice, go somewhere where you can do a high volume of deals. It's even, you know, less about like object, it's certainly, it's not going to matter about title because like going and being an associate Add a big fund that also you don't get a lot of…”
Coogan: Gwern Is One of Silicon Valley's Most Impactful Intellectuals
“He's been living this very aesthetic life just reading and consuming content, rabbit holing, you know, one of the best online writers, one of the, one of like the most impactful intellectuals in Silicon Valley.”
Coogan: Palmer Luckey was mining Bitcoin at age 16
“Palmer Luckey, the founder of Mod Retro and Anderle,
Was mining Bitcoin at age 16.”
Hays: Social acceptance of adult hobbies depends on net worth
“If you are a beaner or a centi and you're obsessed with Legos, it's, you know, they're eccentric, and if you're if you're effectively, if you're broke or lower income, you're just weird, right? So the critique here, the broader issue is the net worth, not, not…”
Hays: Knocking out Mike Tyson would have harmed Jake Paul's brand
“If he had gone and knocked out Mike Tyson, somebody who people love. It would have actually made his, it would have been bad for his brand”
Hays: Employees at Dara Ladjevardian's Delphi work 14- to 16-hour days
“Dara's, you know, cracking the whip. Like, it is a, you know, those are 1415, 16 hour days. They're logging over to Delphi.”
Former Snap CPO Jack Brody moves to AI music company Suno
“Brody told the information in an interview Tuesday that he's moving over to Suno.”
Hays: Colossus Review will replace the hole left by Forbes
“I expect things like Colossus Review to, over time, replace the gaping hole that that Forbes left, right?”
Hays: Jake Paul is one of our era's greatest gambling entrepreneurs
“Jake, Jake Paul is you know, one of the greatest gambling entrepreneurs of our time as well. He's got a company called better.”
Coogan: 'You can just do things' is a rebrand of 'can-do attitude'
“We have this current meme of you can just do things. But if you go back like 20 years, there was a similar meme of having a can do attitude. And it's the same thing. You can do, you can just do things. Having a can do attitude. Is somebody says, oh, can we get…”
Hays: Altman's Grok vs ChatGPT post was savvy content marketing
“So I actually saw a deeper dive on that on Sam's post and it did seem like he had sort of strategically cropped it or screenshot it in a way to not give the sort of like final conclusion. So I think what Sam was doing is what, you know, a lot of people do, whi…”
Coogan: Base LLMs naturally favor Kamala Harris due to mainstream journalistic endorsements
“At the same time, like, I would expect all LLMs, unless you actually went in and put your thumb on the scale, to recommend Kamala, because that's what was being recommended in all the upstream source material, right? Like, Nature magazine, Science magazine, Th…”
Coogan: McMaster-Carr Sells ITAR-Compliant Gatorade
“So on, yeah, on McMaster car, they sell ITAR compliant Gatorade.”
Hays: External link posts are the true test of viral content
“Honestly, posting a link is a real way to test your bangers. Cause like if you can post a link, if you can break through the wall, you know, it's good.”
Hays: VC pitch meetings in saunas lead Silicon Valley down a dark path
“This is a good example of, like, where Silicon Valley could go down, like, kind of a dark path where VCs are like, yeah, just meet me in the sweaty spa. Like, if you say, like, meet me at the sweaty spa, there's, like, a big aversion to that, but for some reas…”
Hays: Norway's Socialist Party displays a wall of departed entrepreneurs who fled
“The Norway socialist party has literally a wall in their office where they put like great entrepreneurs and people that left because they couldn't, Bear the burden of this unrealized capital gain.”
Coogan: Jim Simons constantly sped because the time saved outweighed the fines
“Jim Simons, founder of Renaissance Technologies, RIP would famously speed everywhere. Because he just made the economic calculation that it's not worth it to him.”
Hays: Steve Jobs Swapped Cars Regularly to Avoid License Plates
“Steve Jobs would just get the same nine 11 like every three months because he didn't have to plate it.”
Hays: Traditional Payment Tech Will Compete With Crypto for AI Agents
“There's this broad narrative that agents are just going to use digital assets because there's, they're permissionless, and you can just, like, they're instant. They're less regulated and that, that probably will happen, but there's going to be competition from…”
Hays: Communism is one of history's most significant iterations of the Antichrist
“Communism is arguably, you know, one of the most historically significant iterations of the Antichrist, and we need to fight back.”
Hays: Elite creative agencies turn down roughly 80% of inbound work
“People like that have never been more in demand. Like, they turn down, like, probably 80% of the work that comes into them, and so you see this bifurcation of super talented creatives getting, you know, even like, when Siki worked with an agency I forget the n…”
Hays: Gen AI cannot create the next Linear-level design breakthrough
“So you can develop right now, you can use Gen AI to make a site that looks like linear. They're old. They're old stuff, but you're not going to make the next linear using Gen.ai.”
Coogan: Lessin uses snarky posts to drive engagement
“Sam's the master of, like, throwing in some kind of, like, snarky little bit to his, like, screenshot essay just to kind of get people's hackles up, and that actually drives engagement, so good content marketing.”
Coogan: Hit Pieces Are More Effective Than Puff Pieces
“Hit pieces are actually more effective at moving the needle than puff pieces.”
Coogan: I have spent weeks actively courting journalists to write hit pieces
“I've been courting hit pieces with journalists for the last couple of weeks, talking to them just freely, just on the record, just ripping quotes, just saying whatever.”
Hays: iPhone scale subsidizes Mac R&D like the Cayenne funded Porsche's 911
“I think it's underrated how in the same way that the Cayenne allowed Porsche to invest in the nine 11 platform. The iPhone has been that for the entire Mac ecosystem, right?”
Hays: Apple has made the MacBook Pro the only laptop that matters
“It's amazing that that Apple has continued to just continuously make the MacBook Pro the only laptop that matters unless you're, or, you know, we have Thinkpads, but just for Sort of like modeling work that we do.”
Hays: The political movement to ban TikTok is completely dead
“No, it's basically, no, but basically the whole like political movement to ban TikTok is completely dead. Seemingly evaporated.”
Coogan: Future top capital allocators do not watch TikTok
“The next generation of successful capital allocators are really, really not watching, you know, TikToks.”
Coogan: Luxury goods will be a major beneficiary of the Ozempic boom
“I mean, luxury goods are gonna be one of the big beneficiaries of the Ozempic boom.”
Hays: Buying San Francisco real estate will likely yield strong 10-year returns
“Buying anything in that area, you're probably going to do pretty well.”
Coogan: Gwynne Shotwell Is the Crucial Operational Counterweight to Elon Musk
“She's been super critical, took a whole ton of career risks going in super early, and has just
You know, just driven that company and just executed, executed, executed, and just fantastic public speaker, fantastic counterweight to Elon's, you know, experimenta…”
Hays: Aston Martin cars lose about half their value in year one
“The great thing about Aston's is they lose like half their value in the first year. So if a DBX at 300 K is too much, wait a year and you can buy the same car with 2000 miles for about a 150 K. That's true. So that's one of the beauties of the Aston brand is e…”
Coogan: Tech industry is entering the golden age for crypto products
“We are truly entering the golden age for crypto products. Couldn't agree more. We're seeing this with Polymarket.”
Hays: Next Y Combinator batch will see many crypto startup requests
“I think that I think next YC batch, I'm sure we'll see a lot of crypto company RF RF requests for startups.”
Coogan: Keras creator François Chollet is leaving Google to start a company
“Francois Chollet is out at Google, entering free agency. He's gonna start a new company.”
Coogan highlights Keras powering ML at YouTube, Netflix, and Waymo
“I mean, he built Keras. Powers ML solutions that countless companies touch. It powers your recommendations on YouTube, Netflix, Spotify, the fraud filtering of your credit card transactions, Waymo cars that drive you around San Francisco.”