Mar 28, 2025 · 28m · tbpn
Jordan Schneider (ChinaTalk) On the US-China Power Struggle
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
ChinaTalk creator Jordan Schneider joins the podcast to deliver an incisive analysis of the US-China technological rivalry, exploring AI breakthroughs, semiconductor supply chain bottlenecks, and manufacturing scale. He highlights the critical importance of retaining top scientific talent and maintaining balanced, grounded geopolitical analysis.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 3.3 Guest teaching 5.2 Guest disagreement 2.7 The hosts pushing back 1.3
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 15:32 Flipping the truth algorithm onto Silicon Valley
Jordan immediately dismisses the premise of uniquely Chinese media dishonesty by asking how one finds truth in hype-driven Silicon Valley.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 12:36 Pressing on DeepSeek's misleading cost claimsThe co-host challenges the initial marketing narrative around DeepSeek's ultra-low training costs, noting that omitted R&D and hardware numbers obscured reality.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 20:40 Debunking the 'fully domestic' Chinese chip narrativeJordan breaks down how Huawei bypassed sanctions using TSMC shell entities and why SMIC cannot substitute ASML's EUV lithography equipment.
The host holds their own ▶ 22:17 Host identifies SMEE and SK Hynix bottlenecksJohn demonstrates specific industry knowledge by directly citing SMEE's lithography limitations and the reliance on SK Hynix for memory and flash.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Security Leaks, Government Competency, and 'The Wizard War' | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | John opens discussing the Signal chat security leak and cites Trey Stephens' thesis on institutional competence. Jordan expands by recommending 'The Wizard War' and articulating how exceptional mid-level individuals can overcome systemic bureaucracy when given top cover. | |
| Experiences in China and the Shift in Tech Opportunities | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | The co-host recounts his firsthand experience in Shanghai working at a startup accelerator. Jordan reframes the timeline, explaining that Western firms entering China had their alpha in earlier decades, whereas his cohort focused on Chinese tech expanding globally. | |
| China's AI Foundation Models, DeepSeek, and Talent Retention | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | Jordan delivers a deep dive on how US immigration vibes, earnings parity, and COVID reversed the Chinese brain drain to create DeepSeek's domestic engineering core. He also explains how chip constraints forced Chinese labs down an efficiency trajectory rather than pure compute scaling. | |
| Triangulating Truth and Navigating Media in Chinese Tech | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | When the co-host questions the low-trust nature of Chinese information, Jordan pushes back by comparing it to Silicon Valley hype cycles. He educates on parsing state media versus reading PR-funded tech journalism. | |
| Humanoid vs. Industrial Robotics and Manufacturing Scale | 5 | 6 | 3 | 2 | Jordan dismisses hype around humanoid robots and fully domestic AI chip breakthroughs, explaining Huawei's TSMC shell stockpiles and ASML EUV bottlenecks. John demonstrates domain expertise by naming SMEE and SK Hynix supply chain dependencies. | |
| America's Talent Superpower vs. Manufacturing Catch-Up | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | The co-host poses a strategic question on how America can catch up in advanced manufacturing without Chinese-style reverse engineering. Jordan outlines America's true edge in basic science funding and attracting immigrant STEM talent. |
Statements from this episode (13)
Schneider: Signal chat leaks reveal 'D team' competence across administration cabinet
“It's just fucking embarrassing. It's amateur hour. It's, this is the D team. And I think this is like the best, like everyone knows that these are not all the sharpest tools in the shed. And I think there are different levels of competency that you see Across …”
Schneider: The Foreigner Business Advantage in China Ended After the 2000s
“The alpha of being a foreigner doing business in China. Is like a 19 eighties, 19 nineties, you know, first half of the 2000 story. And then sort of your only alpha as a foreigner in China was not even like, you know, working at Microsoft China or whatever, wh…”
Schneider: Kuaishou Pioneered Short Video Before ByteDance Overtook It
“I think I was at Kwai show which was actually the first company to do short video and got completely blown out of the water by dance.”
Schneider: DeepSeek's core engineering base is under 30 from top Chinese universities
“The core of deep seeks engineering base are all under 30 and all from those top Chinese universities in that cohort.”
Schneider: 85% of US STEM PhD graduates try to stay or remain in America
“85% of the folks who end up getting PhDs in STEM in the US, like either try to stay or end up staying”
Schneider: DeepSeek pushed efficiency earlier because it ran out of chips before US labs
“I think deep sea kind of came to that earlier. The sort of need to really push on kind of the efficiency frontier as opposed to the capability frontier, because they ran out of chips before the likes of OpenAI and Anthropic.”
Schneider: More money flows directly from firms to journalists in China
“I think the one difference is that there is more money that flows directly from firms to journalists in China. So the sort of discount factor that you have to apply to Chinese technology coverage is, Specifically positive technology coverage or even negative t…”
Schneider: Industrial Robotics Will Outpace Humanoids Over a Three-Year Horizon
“I think the sort of
The big markets in the, you know, three-year horizon, let's say, are much more on the industrial robotics side.”
Schneider: China Can Manufacture Drones 15 Times Cheaper Than the US
“China has a really remarkable advantage in scale and manufacturing scale.
And the US, like, it's not just the cost of labor, it's the experience, it's the network and it's the kind of like, 25 years of learning that all these firms have been doing to get to th…”
Schneider: Huawei stockpiled AI chips made at TSMC using shell company
“Huawei was able to manufacture an enormous amount of chips at TSMC by basically creating a shell company, TSMC you know, deciding to look the other way about some Chinese firm manufacturing all these AI chips, and then the US government catching them and be li…”
Schneider: Chinese stockpiled memory chips will last at least two years
“There's a whole lot of memory sitting, sitting in warehouses and in China that they'll be good through for at least the next two years.”
Schneider: The Trump administration wants to blow up universities and scientific funding
“And that is a thing that may just stop happening because the Trump administration doesn't care. About the National Science Foundation, National Institutes of Health wants to blow up universities for better or for worse from their perspective.”
Schneider: Over 75% of top AI founders and research engineers are foreign-born
“And when you look at you know, a lot of the founders, Of these AI firms, a lot of found a lot of sort of the top research engineers, like an enormous amount, like a, I would say over 75% of them were not born in the US.”