May 30, 2026 · 25m · tbpn

New Glenn Explodes, Enterprise AI Enters ROI Era, The Dinosaur Fossil Boom | Diet TBPN

John Coogan · 17m spoken Jordi Hays · 6m spoken
0:00 / 0:00
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Hosts John Coogan and Jordi Hays analyze the aftermath of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket explosion, evaluate the return on investment debate surrounding enterprise AI spending, and examine the booming luxury auction market for dinosaur fossils.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 98.9% of the talking time here. How this is scored →

The hosts as informed peer 5.8 Guest teaching 1.5 Guest disagreement 1.5 The hosts pushing back 1.5
05100:0010:0020:000:00–6:39 · The hosts as informed peer 6/10 Blue Origin New Glenn Static Fire Explosion Analysis The hosts break down the Blue Origin New Glenn static fire test failure with relevant historical context regarding Falcon 1 and Starship. Tyler chimes in with helpful background about the ASTS satellite payload issue on the previous test.6:39–17:33 · The hosts as informed peer 7/10 Enterprise AI Adoption and the Token ROI Dilemma John and Jordi analyze enterprise token spend and budget blowouts across Uber, Meta, and AWS. They ground the discussion in economic frameworks like Jevons Paradox and Goodhart's Law to explain corporate token rationing.17:33–20:16 · The hosts as informed peer 5/10 The High-End Dinosaur Fossil Boom and Sotheby's Auctions The hosts discuss the Financial Times report on high-end dinosaur fossil auctions at Sotheby's. They lightheartedly debate the relative prestige and valuation hierarchy of different dinosaur species.20:16–23:49 · The hosts as informed peer 5/10 Market Euphoria Signals and Wild Reddit Hypotheticals The hosts review retail market euphoria signals, Dell's earnings run, and a comedic Reddit post questioning insider trading rules during a hyena attack on safari.0:00–6:39 · Guest teaching 3/10 Blue Origin New Glenn Static Fire Explosion Analysis The hosts break down the Blue Origin New Glenn static fire test failure with relevant historical context regarding Falcon 1 and Starship. Tyler chimes in with helpful background about the ASTS satellite payload issue on the previous test.6:39–17:33 · Guest teaching 1/10 Enterprise AI Adoption and the Token ROI Dilemma John and Jordi analyze enterprise token spend and budget blowouts across Uber, Meta, and AWS. They ground the discussion in economic frameworks like Jevons Paradox and Goodhart's Law to explain corporate token rationing.17:33–20:16 · Guest teaching 1/10 The High-End Dinosaur Fossil Boom and Sotheby's Auctions The hosts discuss the Financial Times report on high-end dinosaur fossil auctions at Sotheby's. They lightheartedly debate the relative prestige and valuation hierarchy of different dinosaur species.20:16–23:49 · Guest teaching 1/10 Market Euphoria Signals and Wild Reddit Hypotheticals The hosts review retail market euphoria signals, Dell's earnings run, and a comedic Reddit post questioning insider trading rules during a hyena attack on safari.0:00–6:39 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Blue Origin New Glenn Static Fire Explosion Analysis The hosts break down the Blue Origin New Glenn static fire test failure with relevant historical context regarding Falcon 1 and Starship. Tyler chimes in with helpful background about the ASTS satellite payload issue on the previous test.6:39–17:33 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Enterprise AI Adoption and the Token ROI Dilemma John and Jordi analyze enterprise token spend and budget blowouts across Uber, Meta, and AWS. They ground the discussion in economic frameworks like Jevons Paradox and Goodhart's Law to explain corporate token rationing.17:33–20:16 · Guest disagreement 2/10 The High-End Dinosaur Fossil Boom and Sotheby's Auctions The hosts discuss the Financial Times report on high-end dinosaur fossil auctions at Sotheby's. They lightheartedly debate the relative prestige and valuation hierarchy of different dinosaur species.20:16–23:49 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Market Euphoria Signals and Wild Reddit Hypotheticals The hosts review retail market euphoria signals, Dell's earnings run, and a comedic Reddit post questioning insider trading rules during a hyena attack on safari.0:00–6:39 · The hosts pushing back 1/10 Blue Origin New Glenn Static Fire Explosion Analysis The hosts break down the Blue Origin New Glenn static fire test failure with relevant historical context regarding Falcon 1 and Starship. Tyler chimes in with helpful background about the ASTS satellite payload issue on the previous test.6:39–17:33 · The hosts pushing back 2/10 Enterprise AI Adoption and the Token ROI Dilemma John and Jordi analyze enterprise token spend and budget blowouts across Uber, Meta, and AWS. They ground the discussion in economic frameworks like Jevons Paradox and Goodhart's Law to explain corporate token rationing.17:33–20:16 · The hosts pushing back 2/10 The High-End Dinosaur Fossil Boom and Sotheby's Auctions The hosts discuss the Financial Times report on high-end dinosaur fossil auctions at Sotheby's. They lightheartedly debate the relative prestige and valuation hierarchy of different dinosaur species.20:16–23:49 · The hosts pushing back 1/10 Market Euphoria Signals and Wild Reddit Hypotheticals The hosts review retail market euphoria signals, Dell's earnings run, and a comedic Reddit post questioning insider trading rules during a hyena attack on safari.

speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%0:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%3:00 · the hosts 90.7% · guest 9.3%3:00 · the hosts 90.7% · guest 9.3%6:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%6:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%9:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%9:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%12:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%12:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%15:00 · the hosts 99.9% · guest 0.1%15:00 · the hosts 99.9% · guest 0.1%18:00 · the hosts 99.3% · guest 0.7%18:00 · the hosts 99.3% · guest 0.7%21:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%21:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%24:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%24:00 · the hosts 100% · guest 0%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 18:17 Dinosaur valuation hierarchy clash

Jordi humorously dismisses Stegosauruses as the minivan of dinosaurs against John's defense of them being high-end like Lamborghinis.

Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 14:16 Refuting Anthropic-Amazon round conspiracy

Jordi rejects conspiratorial theories claiming Amazon artificially inflated spend just to pump Anthropic's ARR multiple ahead of their funding round.

Biggest teaching moment ▶ 3:01 Tyler adds crucial test flight history

Tyler clarifies the timeline for the hosts by explaining that the third test had misdeployed an ASTS satellite into the incorrect orbit.

The host holds their own ▶ 13:00 Synthesizing AI spend dynamics with economic laws

John demonstrates conceptual expertise by linking runaway enterprise token usage to Jevons Paradox and Goodhart's Law.

the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicThe hosts as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementThe hosts pushing backWhy
Blue Origin New Glenn Static Fire Explosion Analysis 6311 The hosts break down the Blue Origin New Glenn static fire test failure with relevant historical context regarding Falcon 1 and Starship. Tyler chimes in with helpful background about the ASTS satellite payload issue on the previous test.
Enterprise AI Adoption and the Token ROI Dilemma 7122 John and Jordi analyze enterprise token spend and budget blowouts across Uber, Meta, and AWS. They ground the discussion in economic frameworks like Jevons Paradox and Goodhart's Law to explain corporate token rationing.
The High-End Dinosaur Fossil Boom and Sotheby's Auctions 5122 The hosts discuss the Financial Times report on high-end dinosaur fossil auctions at Sotheby's. They lightheartedly debate the relative prestige and valuation hierarchy of different dinosaur species.
Market Euphoria Signals and Wild Reddit Hypotheticals 5111 The hosts review retail market euphoria signals, Dell's earnings run, and a comedic Reddit post questioning insider trading rules during a hyena attack on safari.

Statements from this episode (8)

Assertion Supported
Coogan: Blue Origin's New Glenn exploded at LC-36 during static fire
“Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket just blew up at LC, landing LC-thirty-six while attempting to static fire ahead of NG-four.”
John Coogan May 30, 2026 ▶ 0:12
Opinion
Blue Origin is better than all non-US rocket providers, says Coogan
“Even our second best rocket proprietor is better than everyone else in around the globe.”
John Coogan May 30, 2026 ▶ 2:46
Assertion Partly supported
Coogan: New Glenn has one successful flight in three attempts
“The explosion caused extreme structural damage to its only functional launch pad, while Blue Origin has successfully reached base a number of times with other vehicles. New Glenn has had just one successful flight out of three attempted tries.”
John Coogan May 30, 2026 ▶ 3:43
Assertion Contradicted
Coogan: Axios reported AWS spent around $500M on AI in one month
“And then AWS was also reported and Axios is having spent something like half a billion dollars in a single month.”
John Coogan May 30, 2026 ▶ 8:38
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coogan: AI cost per completed task will fall by 50% to 90% next year
“The cost per task completed by AI will decrease very quickly. So even if you're spending half a billion per month on AI or tokens today the same output will be available next year, maybe for a 10th of the cost, maybe next year, it's half the cost.”
John Coogan May 30, 2026 ▶ 8:47
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Ken Griffin bought a Stegosaurus fossil at Sotheby's for $44.6M
“Sotheby's is to auction a sixty-seven million year old Tyrannosaurus Rex two years after it sold a stegosaurus fossil to hedge fund owner Ken Griffin for 44.6 million.”
John Coogan May 30, 2026 ▶ 17:49
Assertion Supported
Hays: Dell stock is up 222% year-to-date after earnings surge
“Dell plus 40% on earnings after being plus 150% year to date. Dell is now 222 up 222%.”
Jordi Hays May 30, 2026 ▶ 20:34
Opinion
Hays: Laurel Supply is an exact copy of Erewhon
“Everything is a one-to-one copy of Erewhon. It's disorienting. They did not try to differentiate a single thing. They copied every item on the menu.”
Jordi Hays May 30, 2026 ▶ 24:21
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