Jul 16, 2026 · 20m · tbpn
Thinking Machines’ First AI Model, California Loses $3.2B to Texas, TSMC Adds $100B | Diet TBPN
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In this episode, the Host and guest co-host Tyler Cosgrove analyze major business and technology headlines, including Thinking Machines' open-weight AI model, Saronic's $3.2B shipyard relocation to Texas, and TSMC's $100B fab expansion. They also evaluate Disney's historic M&A returns, creator economy partnerships, and urban lifestyle trade-offs with lighthearted studio banter.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 84.2% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Tyler directly pushes back on a bullish tweet by citing technical blog details showing Thinking Machines did use synthetic data from Kimi K.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 17:55 Host counters flawed Disney M&A critiqueCoogan challenges the viral premise that Disney's acquisitions destroyed value by noting the over $70 billion returned to shareholders in dividends and buybacks.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 5:13 Educating on post-training synthetic fine-tuningCosgrove clarifies how modern distillation works in practice, pointing out that training on synthetic open-weight data is still effectively a two-layer distillation.
The host holds their own ▶ 7:50 Explaining token pass-through distillation attacksCoogan demonstrates domain expertise by explaining how commercial wrapper companies resell tokens to obscure adversarial distillation campaigns across international borders.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thinking Machines Releases Open-Weight Model Inkling | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Coogan details Thinking Machines' business strategy comparing it to Red Hat, while Cosgrove clarifies the technical parameter distinction between active and total parameters. | |
| AI Model Distillation Debates and Geopolitical Tensions | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | Cosgrove corrects a viral tweet by citing the blog post admitting to post-training synthetic data distillation from Kimi K. Coogan follows up with detailed context on Anthropic's token revocation and wrapper arbitrage. | |
| Analyzing AI Design Preferences and Aesthetic Anti-Patterns | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | Cosgrove observes that masking negative design patterns does not necessarily make a model more creative. Coogan counters with personal build experience using Codex and explains why standard design patterns exist. | |
| California Loses $3.2B Defense Shipyard to Texas | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Host monologue detailing California Forever losing the Saronic shipyard project to Brownsville, Texas due to regulatory delays. Cosgrove offers no substantive commentary. | |
| TSMC Earnings Beat and $100 Billion US Fab Expansion | 7 | 1 | 1 | 4 | Coogan evaluates TSMC capex and breaks down an online valuation meme about Disney, pointing out that historical capital returns via buybacks and dividends were ignored. | |
| Sean Frank's Critique of Living in New York City | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | Brief banter reviewing Sean Frank's viral tweet criticizing living in NYC before wrapping up the episode. |