Federal Reserve

“The U.S. Treasury market is literally a prediction market because U.S. Treasuries at any point in the curve are the ensemble prediction of what the Fed is expected to do over the course of any given time. So a five-year Treasury is what the next five years of …”

“They're like, you know, a few hundred banks and they're mostly small banks that are using it.”

“What the Fed needs is a more robust discussion of ideas. Less groupthink. I don't like it that everyone's following the same model.”

“Easing is fundamentally different than cutting interest rates, in that it appears to be working through fundamentally different transmission channels. No longer credit channels and lending channels appear to be the dominant way in which it impacts the economy.…”

“He said, two percent should be the upper bound. One to two percent is more of a realistic target.”

“So he joins, he moves to DC, gets involved in politics in two and two, and he joins the fed in 2006 at 35. And he was the youngest governor in the feds history.”

“I think that the AI adoption will be very steep and very dramatic, but I just think it's important to recognize that like, this is a paper that people will be citing. This is a paper that will shape policy.”