Facebook

also referred to as: meta

includes Facebook Messenger, Facebook Marketplace, Facebook Chat, Facebook Red Book

201 statements across 100 episodes · 78 bullish · 39 bearish · 44 people on the record · first statement Oct 14, 2024 by Jordi Hays · said 1,511 times in 263 episodes since 2024 · across every show →

Mentions by year, the whole family

brought up most by John Coogan (548), Jordi Hays (194), Conor Macdonald (18), Tyler Denk (10), Seth Rosenberg (10), Adam Kovacevich (8), Sam Lessin (7), Turner Novak (6)

tap a year for its mentions
0040075800150202420252026episodesmentions
075150202420252026episodes it came up in
004758150202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 702 mentions in 119 episodes 6 per episode
2025 685 mentions in 124 episodes 6 per episode
2024 124 mentions in 20 episodes 6 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Facebook, oldest first

Oct 14, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Hays: Zuckerberg's public image will suffer from arrogance and AI controversies
“I'm short on his public image because I think him getting cocky again and wearing shirts that say Zuck is inevitable, and Meta still being, like, basically at, gonna be at the epicenter of all this drama around AI and, you know, generated content and all this …”
Jordi Hays Oct 14, 2024 ▶ 1:07:44 Zuck Just Killed the Apple Vision Pro (ep2)
Oct 14, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Meta's Orion prototype costs $10,000 with a two-hour battery life
“Meta announced this Orion prototype. It costs 10 K to produce right now per unit, and it has like a, like maybe a two hour battery life.”
John Coogan Oct 14, 2024 ▶ 27:03 Zuck Just Killed the Apple Vision Pro (ep2)
Oct 14, 2024 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Coogan: Meta bought a 5 percent stake in Luxottica
“And Meta, I think they bought five percent of Luxottica”
John Coogan Oct 14, 2024 ▶ 20:11 Zuck Just Killed the Apple Vision Pro (ep2)
Oct 14, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Meta and Luxottica re-upped exclusive 10-year partnership
“So they just re-upped, I think they have a ten-year deal, it's exclusive, and Luxottica is the, like, the sole hardware, like. Well, so they're completely vertically integrated, so they own Ray-Ban”
John Coogan Oct 14, 2024 ▶ 19:33 Zuck Just Killed the Apple Vision Pro (ep2)
Oct 14, 2024 negative
Opinion
Coogan: Viral AI hoaxes prove Meta fails to educate consumers
“It should be somewhat of a wake-up call to Meta, and like, the actual employees there, but like, your consumers don't understand you at all. Like, you need to probably do better to educate them about how things work.”
John Coogan Oct 14, 2024 ▶ 1:07:18 Zuck Just Killed the Apple Vision Pro (ep2)
Nov 3, 2024 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hays: Equity crowdfunding on Facebook can yield $10 for every $1 spent
“Companies figured out if you spend a dollar on Facebook, you can drive 10 dollars of investment, so why would you not just Do that. It's like an infinite money glitch, basically.”
Jordi Hays Nov 3, 2024 ▶ 49:38 The Secret Billionaire Party (ep6)
Nov 6, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Meta Direct-Response Ads Remain Highly Effective Despite Rising CPMs
“Direct response Marketing seems to be working better than ever. Like meta is getting so optimized that. I buy products on a weekly basis from companies I've never heard of because they serve me an ad for a highly relevant product. And that still seems to work.…”
Jordi Hays Nov 6, 2024 ▶ 2:02:07 Trump's Secret Career (ep7)
Nov 14, 2024 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hays: Ridge Spent Around $250M on Meta Ads Before Collaborating with MKBHD
“Ridge basically had spent probably two hundred and fifty million dollars on meta ads before they ever did a collaboration with like MK. MKBHD.”
Jordi Hays Nov 14, 2024 ▶ 1:14:46 Low T levels at Y-Combinator (ep9)
Nov 16, 2024 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Hayes: Kalshi burned $1M daily on Facebook ads to catch Polymarket
“So Cal, she was spending a million dollars a day on Facebook. Just to get into the charts. Polymarket had a lot more organic adoption and organic media.”
Jordi Hays Nov 16, 2024 ▶ 1:42:45 What is the TRUMP BUBBLE? (ep11)
Nov 30, 2024 positive
Insight
Coogan: B2B SaaS base hits reliably return venture funds over social media
“You couldn't just build a whole fund around social media investing, because if you missed Facebook, you were done, but you could build a fund around B to B SaaS, like base hits that were essentially Decacorns. And if you can build a business to ten billion dol…”
John Coogan Nov 30, 2024 ▶ 1:41:21 Taylor Lorenz Trades Teams (ep16)
Nov 30, 2024 neutral
Insight
Hays: AppLovin cannot rescue brands failing on Meta ads
“If you're not making meta work, well, you're not app loving is not just going to like solve all your issues. Like it's a marketing, like excellence. It's a skill issue basically. So. You're not just gonna, like, suddenly transform your business by going over t…”
Jordi Hays Nov 30, 2024 ▶ 1:01:41 Taylor Lorenz Trades Teams (ep16)
Dec 2, 2024 positive
Opinion
Coogan: Meta exec apologies to Palmer Luckey reflect genuine regret, not expediency
“I think it's, it is impressive, mostly because they didn't need to do this. Like, Palmer is not in charge of Meta. Meta is bigger than Anderl, and sure, they might want to align a little bit more with the new administration, but I do think that there's a genui…”
John Coogan Dec 2, 2024 ▶ 59:15 How BILLIONAIRES dress for XMAS (ep17)
Dec 6, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Coogan: Meta's Early VR Bet Doesn't Matter on a 30-Year Horizon
“Everyone agrees that that's, that that bet is very early. Yeah. But it just doesn't matter if you have a thirty-year timeline.”
John Coogan Dec 6, 2024 ▶ 16:26 Inside Facebooks Secret "Red Book" (ep18)
Dec 6, 2024 neutral
Insight
Hays: Only Six-Month and 30-Year Timelines Matter in Tech
“In our industry, there's only sort of two timelines that matters. There's six months and 30 years.”
Jordi Hays Dec 6, 2024 ▶ 15:59 Inside Facebooks Secret "Red Book" (ep18)
Dec 6, 2024 positive
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Mark Zuckerberg regularly wears an F.P. Journe watch
“And yet the boss is rocking an FP Jorn regularly.”
John Coogan Dec 6, 2024 ▶ 29:41 Inside Facebooks Secret "Red Book" (ep18)
Dec 6, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Hays: Facebook's Red Book created billions in startup economy value
“The Facebook Redbook has been the same for the startup economy in many ways. So it is not just a little book. There's been billions and potentially trillions of dollars of value created from this source of wise wisdom.”
Jordi Hays Dec 6, 2024 ▶ 2:23 Inside Facebooks Secret "Red Book" (ep18)
Dec 6, 2024 positive
Opinion
Hays: Facebook's Red Book predicted the future 15 years out
“The true and test of intelligence is like being able to predict the future. And in many ways, like the red book just predicted the future. 15 years out, like almost to a T.”
Jordi Hays Dec 6, 2024 ▶ 12:27 Inside Facebooks Secret "Red Book" (ep18)
Dec 12, 2024 positive
Opinion
Mark Zuckerberg executes and envisions long-term better than original product creators
“Many of their most popular products were copycats of other products that were succeeding. Yet simultaneously, if you look at the red book, he has had this sort of like decades long vision for his company that only a generational ideas guy could actually have. …”
Jordi Hays Dec 12, 2024 ▶ 1:12:25 Billionaires XMAS list (ep21)
Dec 31, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Coogan: Bullish on Meta releasing a Vision Pro competitor with movie support
“Super bullish for Meta because they're clearly going to release like something that's equivalent. They just need to figure out the media. Like you should be able to just buy any movie on any Meta headset. And I don't know that they have a partnership yet, but …”
John Coogan Dec 31, 2024 ▶ 18:38 Year of Tech in Review (ep25)
Jan 8, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Meta is moving its trust and safety team to Texas
“He's like, oh, and by the way, we're moving our trust and safety organization from San Francisco to Texas.”
John Coogan Jan 8, 2025 ▶ 1:19:06 How to WIN in 2025? (INSANE Predictions List)
Jan 16, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Meta's PR leadership had to ask Mark Zuckerberg what MMA was
“But I've literally talked to, like, the head of PR at Meta, and, like, and, like, she's always, like, yeah, he had to explain to us what MMA was. Like, they didn't know. Like, I'm, like, I'm very, very sure that, like, that, like, there's no slide deck out the…”
John Coogan Jan 16, 2025 ▶ 34:49 The Businesses Making $$$ off Disaster Relief
Jan 16, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Zuckerberg Announced Meta Is Phasing Out Fact Checkers for Community Notes
“Mark Zuckerberg's announcement that he will be removing fact checkers from Meta, Properties and implementing an X-like community notes system”
John Coogan Jan 16, 2025 ▶ 20:08 The Businesses Making $$$ off Disaster Relief
Jan 16, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Zuckerberg Promoted Joel Kaplan to Global Affairs President
“That executive's name was Joel Kaplan. Mark just gave him a promotion. He is now the company's president of global affairs and nobody at the company seems to care”
John Coogan Jan 16, 2025 ▶ 31:45 The Businesses Making $$$ off Disaster Relief
Jan 16, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Meta Ended Its Internal DEI Program
“Meta ended its DEI program, and Mark appeared on Rogan to basically apologize for all the censorship.”
John Coogan Jan 16, 2025 ▶ 32:01 The Businesses Making $$$ off Disaster Relief
Jan 18, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Meta and YouTube Shorts will capture 99% of TikTok's time
“I really think like 99% of the tech talk. Time spent on that app will flow to Meta, YouTube Shorts, and then Snapchat, I do think will be a beneficiary, but maybe they capture five percent of like the bleed over.”
John Coogan Jan 18, 2025 ▶ 1:05:53 The END of TikTok?
Jan 23, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Meta's presidential account unfollow issue was a server-side bug
“What happened was the unfollow demand was so high that the unfollow requests weren't going through on the server side. So then it looked like I unfollowed it. And then I was like, cool. I unfollowed it because it updated on the front end. It didn't update on t…”
John Coogan Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 1:12:55 Project Stargate, The T Word, Ramp Treasury, Audience Ad Reads, See You at Davos
Jan 23, 2025 negative
Opinion
Coogan: Platforms should abolish generic handles like @POTUS and @VP
“It's a terrible system. It makes no sense. They just shouldn't have at POTUS or at VP. It should just be Trump or Biden, right?”
John Coogan Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 1:13:16 Project Stargate, The T Word, Ramp Treasury, Audience Ad Reads, See You at Davos
Jan 25, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Meta's AI Deployment Will Likely Hurt Google Search More Than Bing
“And so Meta's deployment probably hurts Google search more than Bing or perplexity ever will. Because people will just wind up searching in Facebook and Instagram.”
John Coogan Jan 25, 2025 ▶ 16:16 DeepSeek, Stargate Update, Bees Do Enjoy Honey, Golden Retriever Maxxing, Bring on the Trilly
Jan 25, 2025 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Coogan: Meta's Llama is the most-used LLM due to Instagram integration
“They're, because Llama is the number one LLM, not because people are hosting it independently. Although they are, plenty of companies are hosting Llama independently. They're the number one used LLM Because it's tucked into Instagram, and so they just have a t…”
John Coogan Jan 25, 2025 ▶ 1:00:33 DeepSeek, Stargate Update, Bees Do Enjoy Honey, Golden Retriever Maxxing, Bring on the Trilly
Jan 25, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coogan: DeepSeek Open Sourcing Leading-Edge Model Will Disrupt AI Competition
“Zuck has been running this playbook with Llama open sourcing the lagging edge AI model, and it's had a strong effect on the competition. And so deep seek open sourcing, the leading edge model is going to have a similar effect.”
John Coogan Jan 25, 2025 ▶ 45:31 DeepSeek, Stargate Update, Bees Do Enjoy Honey, Golden Retriever Maxxing, Bring on the Trilly
Jan 25, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Most future consumer AI usage will occur through existing platforms
“Most future consumer LLM usage will go through existing platforms, Google, Instagram, WhatsApp, Facebook, iPhone, Android.”
John Coogan Jan 25, 2025 ▶ 14:34 DeepSeek, Stargate Update, Bees Do Enjoy Honey, Golden Retriever Maxxing, Bring on the Trilly
Jan 25, 2025 negative
What-if
Hays: Meta's metaverse budget could have launched a Starlink competitor
“Meta could have probably almost launched a Starlink competitor with how much they spent on the metaverse.”
Jordi Hays Jan 25, 2025 ▶ 15:24 DeepSeek, Stargate Update, Bees Do Enjoy Honey, Golden Retriever Maxxing, Bring on the Trilly
Jan 28, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Hays: Consumer AI App Layer Will Be More Competitive Than Model Layer
“This consumer App layer is going to be more competitive in many ways than the foundation model layer because you're competing with Meta, Apple, all these different, you know, Google, et cetera, that have the distribution already.”
Jordi Hays Jan 28, 2025 ▶ 1:43:10 DeepSeek Update, Market Crash, Timeline in Turmoil, Is VC Cooked, Zero Cope Policy
Feb 5, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Temu and Shein Churn Would Not Substantially Harm Meta's Revenue
“The two companies combined, it's estimated spent just under three billion dollars a year to date. Meta's revenue is up around eleven billion year over year. And so the growth of Timu and Sheen, certainly they're spending more, they're driving a lot of growth, …”
John Coogan Feb 5, 2025 ▶ 17:06 The Truth About Chinese Manufacturing (De Minimis)
Feb 5, 2025
Assertion Supported
Temu and Shein's Share of Meta Ad Spend Has Already Peaked
“And so this quarter did turn out to be the peak of Timu and Sheen's share of Meta advertising around Under seven percent on Facebook and just under four percent on Instagram, and they're down to around four percent and two percent respectively now.”
John Coogan Feb 5, 2025 ▶ 18:20 The Truth About Chinese Manufacturing (De Minimis)
Feb 10, 2025 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Coogan: Microsoft, Google, and Meta will spend $230B combined on CapEx
“Microsoft is expected to top ninety billion in CapEx this calendar year. Google is spending seventy-five billion and Meta is spending sixty-five billion.”
John Coogan Feb 10, 2025 ▶ 36:57 The BEST Super Bowl Commercial (Saquon Barkley)
Mar 12, 2025 positive
What-if
Lessin: Meta Smart Glasses Would Not Sell Without Ray-Ban Branding
“If meta had released not Ray bands, right. Then like, they wouldn't be as cool, even if they were exactly the same and they probably wouldn't have sold as well.”
Sam Lessin Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 14:19 Sam Lessin on Meta, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing in Creators.
Mar 12, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Lessin: Meta's core ad business faces no AI disruption unlike Google
“They're unlike Google aren't going to get disrupted in their core business on this. They don't have a search business. They don't have a lookup business to disrupt. They have a shit ton of an engagement attention and they sell ads. And you know, what definitel…”
Sam Lessin Mar 12, 2025 ▶ 5:47 Sam Lessin on Meta, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing in Creators.
Mar 17, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bartlett: Most AI equity value will probably accrue to Big Tech incumbents
“And I think in large part, maybe with the exception of open AI, like the vast majority of the equity value will probably end up accumulating to the Facebooks and the Microsofts and the, you know, the Googles and I guess open AI as well.”
Logan Bartlett Mar 17, 2025 ▶ 25:58 Logan Bartlett talks about the history of VC, current sentiment, and are we back to 2021?
Mar 24, 2025 positive
Opinion
Senra: Mark Zuckerberg is by far the best 40-year-old public CEO
“It's like now he's like working, you know, the best you know, the best 40 year old public company CEO in the world by far”
David Senra Mar 24, 2025 ▶ 12:24 David Senra on Nvidia, Jensen Huang, and Being a Great Founder.
Mar 24, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Frank: Apple launched iOS 14 privacy changes because Facebook refused revenue-sharing
“And that was the whole iOS, 14 breakdown, right? Is that Apple wanted to, they wanted revenue from Facebook in exchange for that data. And Facebook said, no, so they shut it down.”
Sean Frank Mar 24, 2025 ▶ 12:05 Sean Frank talks about Meta monetizing WhatsApp, Ridge Wallet, and the downfall of Solo Brands.
Mar 24, 2025 bullish
Disclosure
Frank: Ridge Wallet is spending more on Meta now than in December
“Like last year meta did not work and we are giving so much of our money to the big blue beast. And we're spending more today than we spent in December, right?”
Sean Frank Mar 24, 2025 ▶ 8:25 Sean Frank talks about Meta monetizing WhatsApp, Ridge Wallet, and the downfall of Solo Brands.
Mar 24, 2025
Disclosure
Sean Frank: Ridge has spent over $250M on Meta advertising
“I think I'm at, you know, over a quarter billion dollars in meta spend.”
Sean Frank Mar 24, 2025 ▶ 13:04 Sean Frank talks about Meta monetizing WhatsApp, Ridge Wallet, and the downfall of Solo Brands.
Mar 24, 2025 negative
Insight
Meta's ad algorithm now skews toward warmer audiences over incremental reach
“They began kind of weighting outcomes differently. It's become more middle and bottom of funnel to say you know, it's sort of serving to warmer and warmer audiences and us as marketers or, you know, Growth people, like we want to be driving incremental results…”
Conor Macdonald Mar 24, 2025 ▶ 4:00 Conor Macdonald on "Why Meta Ads Are Failing" and "How AI is Saving E-Commerce".
Mar 24, 2025 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Meta contact called current climate for DTC brands a "bloodbath"
“The second point that I have is from our contact at Meta who described the current climate for DTC brands, at least the growth oriented ones as a quote unquote bloodbath.”
Conor Macdonald Mar 24, 2025 ▶ 2:59 Conor Macdonald on "Why Meta Ads Are Failing" and "How AI is Saving E-Commerce".
Mar 25, 2025 positive
Opinion
Masad: Google's Flutter UX significantly outperforms Meta's open-source infrastructure
“If you go to Google and, you know, use, you know, Flutter, I think that thing is actually much more polished of an experience, because they have a direct incentive to advance the Android ecosystem, for example. And so Facebook, we built really cool pieces of i…”
Amjad Masad Mar 25, 2025 ▶ 22:07 Amjad Masad on Replit, AI Agents, and the Death of Traditional Software.
Mar 25, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Masad: Replit Agent V2 improved user metrics by 100% to 500%
“I've never seen a sort of like an AB test as we're rolling out. I've never seen metrics in my entire life. I worked at Facebook, other places. We're moving metrics like crazy. Just be just by improving the agent, like a hundred percent, 500% on certain metrics…”
Amjad Masad Mar 25, 2025 ▶ 4:34 Amjad Masad on Replit, AI Agents, and the Death of Traditional Software.
Mar 26, 2025 positive
Opinion
Rauch: React is one of Meta's greatest inventions
“React was open source by Meta. I believe that's one of their greatest inventions.”
Guillermo Rauch Mar 26, 2025 ▶ 23:17 Guillermo Rauch on the Next.js Drama, AI-Driven Dev, Vercel’s v0, and the Future of Frontend.
Mar 27, 2025
Assertion Supported
Facebook's early secondary trading caused venture to adopt blanket transfer restrictions
“Once other venture companies saw this, they implemented basically blanket transfer restrictions. And that has been the default ever since.”
Christian Garrett Mar 27, 2025 ▶ 12:50 Christian Garrett (137 Ventures) on Investing and Markets
Apr 9, 2025 neutral
Insight
Hudson: Honey charges low commissions compared to double-digit Google ad costs
“So it's not like the marketing spend on Google where you're spending well into double digits percentage of revenue on acquisition or what you're spending on Facebook. We're talking like really small numbers and Part of that reason the rates are low is actually…”
Ryan Hudson Apr 9, 2025 ▶ 10:15 HONEY Founder Responds to MegaLag -- Ryan Hudson on TBPN
Apr 10, 2025 neutral
Insight
Roberts: AI foundation models are swappable infrastructure like AWS, not locked platforms
“I think so many of these models are like hyper competitive in terms of what their performance and output actually looks like. So you can build incredible experiences off of those that can swap pretty easily between them. Yeah, I would think of them more like m…”
Bryce Roberts Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 14:53 Why the MARKET Is More FRAGILE Than EVER | Bryce Roberts on TBPN April 7th
Apr 10, 2025 negative
Opinion
Crivello: Meta's Llama 4 Has Good Evals but Bad Vibes
“I will say, I feel bad for saying that because I have friends like the Lama team, but boy, like Lama for the vibes are really bad. Like the emails are good and the vibes are quite bad actually.”
Flo Crivello Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 12:26 What AI and LEGO Have in Common | Flo Crivello on TBPN April 7th
Apr 10, 2025 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Crivello: Meta AI VP and Researchers Resigned Over Unethical Practices
“The VP of AI research at Meta resigned and so have a couple members of the core research team seemingly in protest for what they deemed to be unethical practices.”
Flo Crivello Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 12:56 What AI and LEGO Have in Common | Flo Crivello on TBPN April 7th
Apr 10, 2025 negative
Opinion
Crivello: Zuckerberg Threatened to Fire Meta AI Org Over Targets
“I think Zach is, is massively raising the temperature and I think he's basically threatened to like Destroy the whole org or, like, fire happy org or, like, similar stuff like that if they don't hit certain targets by a certain date, and I think that's led to …”
Flo Crivello Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 13:32 What AI and LEGO Have in Common | Flo Crivello on TBPN April 7th
Apr 10, 2025 bullish
Insight
Huber: Open-source models win B2B through developer focus, not beating GPT-5
“Focus on the developers. I think that's the beachhead. That's how you win the B to B market. If you win the B to B market with your open source models, Like, you get all of the sort of downstream effects that you want. You know, you don't need to beat you know…”
Jeff Huber Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 8:01 The Most UNDERRATED Use Case in AI | Jeff Huber on TBPN April 8th
Apr 10, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Huber: Never bet against Zuckerberg and Meta's distribution power
“Distribution is incredibly important as long as, you know, sort of the incumbents can wake up and can catch up. You know, I would not bet against Zuck And a hundred billion dollars of profit per year.”
Jeff Huber Apr 10, 2025 ▶ 3:59 The Most UNDERRATED Use Case in AI | Jeff Huber on TBPN April 8th
Apr 26, 2025 negative
Opinion
Asparouhov: Both Democrats and Trump dislike Zuckerberg, enabling FTC antitrust scrutiny
“Zuck has, you know, done his best to cozy up to, you know, so Trump, White House, et cetera, you know, he's wearing his chains, he's tan, he's, you know, looking for Joe again, hanging with Joe Rogan, but also, like, you know, the Dems hate him because they fe…”
Delian Asparouhov Apr 26, 2025 ▶ 18:02 How Tech Can Save America | Delian Asparouhov on TBPN
Apr 26, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Will Brown: Nobody will run Meta's giant model for daily tasks
“When Meta releases this behemoth model, I don't think anyone's really gonna run behemoth. For like their day to day stuff. It's just probably not gonna be worth it.”
Will Brown Apr 26, 2025 ▶ 6:21 Why Humor Is the True Test of AI Intelligence | Will Brown on TBPN
Apr 26, 2025
Assertion Supported
Meta has spent approximately $80 billion on Reality Labs to date
“I think he's like spent eighty billion dollars so, so far on like reality labs.”
Mike Vernal Apr 26, 2025 ▶ 5:26 Why Patience Is the Secret to Building Iconic Companies | Mike Vernal on TBPN
Apr 26, 2025 neutral
Insight
Big tech experience does not teach operators how to attack new categories
“There were obviously sales and marketing teams at both Microsoft and Facebook, but you don't really build an intuition for how to like attack a new business category. I think unless you've worked at a startup.”
Mike Vernal Apr 26, 2025 ▶ 8:47 Why Patience Is the Secret to Building Iconic Companies | Mike Vernal on TBPN
Apr 28, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kovacevich: Google, Meta, and OpenAI will lead US against China in AI
“Well, like, who do you think is going to do that? It's going to be Google, Meta, OpenAI, right? It's going to be those companies, right?”
Adam Kovacevich Apr 28, 2025 ▶ 20:56 Behind the Scenes of the Google Antitrust Trial | Adam Kovacevich on TBPN
Apr 28, 2025 negative
Opinion
Kovacevich: FTC faces an uphill battle in Meta antitrust trial
“And frankly, I think the FTC has a really tough case there.”
Adam Kovacevich Apr 28, 2025 ▶ 17:20 Behind the Scenes of the Google Antitrust Trial | Adam Kovacevich on TBPN
Apr 28, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Kovacevich: FTC and DOJ divided Big Tech targets rather than subject matter
“What happened was about six years ago, the FTC and the Justice Department, they share responsibility for antitrust. They got together and they said, they basically struck a deal and they said, okay, FTC, you get Meta and Amazon and DOJ, you get Google and Appl…”
Adam Kovacevich Apr 28, 2025 ▶ 13:21 Behind the Scenes of the Google Antitrust Trial | Adam Kovacevich on TBPN
Jun 14, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Meta is buying a 49 percent stake in Scale AI for $15B
“Meta is paying fifteen billion. I thought it was 1415, something like that for a 49% stake in scale AI that pays out investors and employees. CEO Alex Wang is leaving to join Meta and head up a super intelligence lab.”
John Coogan Jun 14, 2025 ▶ 2:43:38 Weekly Recap: Apple WWDC, Andrew Huberman, YC Demo Day, Intern Phone Assembly, $14B Meta x Scale
Jun 14, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Snap's market cap equals Meta's $14B Scale AI deal
“Snaps market cap, exactly what meta just paid for a 50% stake in scale AI, fourteen billion.”
John Coogan Jun 14, 2025 ▶ 8:58 Weekly Recap: Apple WWDC, Andrew Huberman, YC Demo Day, Intern Phone Assembly, $14B Meta x Scale
Jun 21, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Meta is reportedly investing $5 billion for 4% of Luxottica
“Luxottica owns both Oakley and Ray-Ban and Meta is reportedly investing five billion dollars for a four percent stake.”
John Coogan Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 2:41 Weekly Recap: Elon's Starship Explodes, OpenAI's Defense Contract, Nvidia's Robots, We Test Cluely
Jul 1, 2025 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Apple cloud infrastructure lacks Meta's scale in ML inference
“They don't do a lot of machine learning inference versus, say, Meta, that already has a, you know, a hundred billion dollar data center that just does recommendation algorithms and machine learning and inference.”
John Coogan Jul 1, 2025 ▶ 1:31 Apple Considers New AI partnership
Jul 5, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sundberg: Many Biden White House staffers were recruited straight from Meta
“I mean, there's, there are a lot of people that worked in the White House under Biden who used to work at Instagram. Like they were recruited straight from Meta.”
Emily Sundberg Jul 5, 2025 ▶ 1:03:34 Weekly Recap: The Soham Parekh Drama, Meta Attacks OpenAI, Trump's Mega Bill
Jul 5, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: OpenAI Recalibrates Compensation to Fight Meta Poaching While Balancing Fairness
“Chen promised that he was working with Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI and other leaders of the company around the clock to talk to those with offers, adding, we've been more proactive than ever before. We're recalibrating comp and we're scooping out creative wa…”
John Coogan Jul 5, 2025 ▶ 2:06:11 Weekly Recap: The Soham Parekh Drama, Meta Attacks OpenAI, Trump's Mega Bill
Jul 5, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: All 11 Meta Super Intelligence hires are foreign-educated immigrants
“Every single one of the 11 Meta, Meta Super Intelligence hires has an, is an immigrant who did their undergrad abroad. Ah, seven from China, one from India, one from Australia, one from UK, One from South Africa. Eight are PhDs or PhD dropouts in the US.”
John Coogan Jul 5, 2025 ▶ 3:10:52 Weekly Recap: The Soham Parekh Drama, Meta Attacks OpenAI, Trump's Mega Bill
Jul 5, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Coogan: Meta Will Not Try To Directly Disrupt ChatGPT
“I don't think that Meta is necessarily going to try and go eat ChatGPT's lunch. Like I was revisiting that conversation that we had with Jeff Huber, and he was saying like, you know, he was kind of reiterating like, never bet against Zuck. Like he's working on…”
John Coogan Jul 5, 2025 ▶ 2:00:53 Weekly Recap: The Soham Parekh Drama, Meta Attacks OpenAI, Trump's Mega Bill
Jul 5, 2025 negative
Opinion
Depue: Meta has not had a homegrown product innovation stick in a while
“It's been a while since they had a product innovation that was homegrown that really stuck.”
Will Depue Jul 5, 2025 ▶ 2:54:02 Weekly Recap: The Soham Parekh Drama, Meta Attacks OpenAI, Trump's Mega Bill
Jul 5, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Zuckerberg Poached Four Senior OpenAI Researchers For Meta AI
“Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg successfully recruited four senior researchers from the company to join Meta's super intelligence lab.”
John Coogan Jul 5, 2025 ▶ 2:00:23 Weekly Recap: The Soham Parekh Drama, Meta Attacks OpenAI, Trump's Mega Bill
Jul 5, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Depue: Meta may eventually shift to releasing closed flagship AI models
“I w it wouldn't surprise me if they go kind of the Google route where like they are still, they still do open source. They still have the llama brand, but it isn't like their flagship thing where they start doing, whether it's for internal products or it's, th…”
Will Depue Jul 5, 2025 ▶ 3:05:44 Weekly Recap: The Soham Parekh Drama, Meta Attacks OpenAI, Trump's Mega Bill
Jul 5, 2025 negative
Insight
Hays: Matching Competitor Poach Offers Creates Perverse Retention Incentives
“The other thing is, is it creates this like really nasty incentive. To basically be like, oh yeah, you know, you maybe got hit up by a meta recruiter like many months ago and you can be like, yeah, I mean, they reached out to me and suddenly they're like hover…”
Jordi Hays Jul 5, 2025 ▶ 2:07:51 Weekly Recap: The Soham Parekh Drama, Meta Attacks OpenAI, Trump's Mega Bill
Jul 5, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hays: Zuckerberg offered tens of millions to mid-level Google engineers
“Going back to Zuck raiding Google in, in, in, in, in, in, in, he was offering tens of millions of dollars in stock packages to mid-level engineers just because he was like, I need a really good ad product.”
Jordi Hays Jul 5, 2025 ▶ 2:13:34 Weekly Recap: The Soham Parekh Drama, Meta Attacks OpenAI, Trump's Mega Bill
Jul 5, 2025 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Depue: Yann LeCun had no involvement with Meta's LLaMA models
“I think it's a shame that they didn't necessarily have someone in the llama org who was as visible as him because he was not involved with llama at all. Like fair fundamental AI research is like a whole other group that they mostly write papers and do very aca…”
Will Depue Jul 5, 2025 ▶ 2:45:13 Weekly Recap: The Soham Parekh Drama, Meta Attacks OpenAI, Trump's Mega Bill
Jul 5, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Hays: Facebook's 2010-2011 Poaching Raid Forced Google To Raise Comp
“In 2011, in 2010 and 20 11 Zuck and Facebook went super aggressive poaching from Google. So Facebook had crossed half a billion users. They were, in that period of transitioning from a super scrappy startup. Yep. And they went heavy into Google. So they went a…”
Jordi Hays Jul 5, 2025 ▶ 2:03:45 Weekly Recap: The Soham Parekh Drama, Meta Attacks OpenAI, Trump's Mega Bill
Jul 5, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Depue: Meta dedicates a huge portion of its GPUs to Instagram recommendations
“Meta has a ton of GPUs. They just use for Instagram ads recommendations.”
Will Depue Jul 5, 2025 ▶ 3:08:31 Weekly Recap: The Soham Parekh Drama, Meta Attacks OpenAI, Trump's Mega Bill
Jul 8, 2025 positive
Opinion
Patel: Meta is the first company paying AI researchers their true value
“I mean, I still think they're, like, underpaying them. I think, like, Meta's the first company that is actually coming close to the break-even point of what the best AI researchers are actually worth the company.”
Dwarkesh Patel Jul 8, 2025 ▶ 22:37 DWARKESH PATEL on the Biggest Problem of AI
Jul 12, 2025 neutral
Opinion
Thompson: Meta's aggressive AI spending drives up costs across tech ecosystem
“From Facebook's perspective, AI's all upside, so of course they're gonna invest what they need to do to win, but it's costing him a lot of money, and by extension, it's costing everyone else in the ecosystem a lot of money.”
Ben Thompson Jul 12, 2025 ▶ 2:03:38 Weekly Recap: Grok 4 Launch, Texas Floods, Web Browser War, Top Signals, Meta Smart Glasses
Jul 25, 2025 positive
Opinion
Neistat: Meta integrating cameras into familiar Ray-Ban frames was a brilliant move
“I think that Meta's decision to put wearable glasses with a camera on them in Ray-Bans, the most common sunglasses in the world, was brilliant because we're all familiar with this pair of sunglasses.”
Casey Neistat Jul 25, 2025 ▶ 22:57 CASEY NEISTAT on Why Analog Is The Future
Jul 26, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Neistat: Meta putting smart glasses in Ray-Bans was a brilliant decision
“I think that Meta's decision to put wearable glasses with a camera on them in Ray-Bans, the most common sunglasses in the world, was brilliant because we're all familiar with this pair of sunglasses. Like, there was no learning curve. There was no, like, what'…”
Casey Neistat Jul 26, 2025 ▶ 2:11:03 Weekly Recap: Casey Neistat, OpenAI Cracks Math, The Future of ChatGPT, Apple x F1, Intel Layoffs
Jul 26, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Coogan: AI is a sustaining technology favoring profitable incumbents like Google and Meta
“The way in which Google seems to have flipped the switch in terms of going all in on AI along with Meta's spending on AI talent really does Strongly suggest that AI, in the end, is a sustaining technology that favors the incumbents most of all. Both see a line…”
John Coogan Jul 26, 2025 ▶ 1:24:25 Weekly Recap: Casey Neistat, OpenAI Cracks Math, The Future of ChatGPT, Apple x F1, Intel Layoffs
Jul 26, 2025 neutral
Prediction Held up
Hays: Meta will pursue AI companionship but avoid romantic companion modes
“I still think they'll take more shots on goal around companionship. Will they go grok waifu mode? No. I don't think they want that revenue line.”
Jordi Hays Jul 26, 2025 ▶ 34:58 Weekly Recap: Casey Neistat, OpenAI Cracks Math, The Future of ChatGPT, Apple x F1, Intel Layoffs
Jul 26, 2025 bullish
Assertion Contradicted
Coogan: SemiAnalysis clocks ChatGPT at 71% of AI query share
“So semi-analysis, clocks, chat GPTs, share of queries, it's 71%. Meta is in second at 12%, and that's with billions of users on meta products, and so OpenAI is certainly running away with consumer.”
John Coogan Jul 26, 2025 ▶ 29:57 Weekly Recap: Casey Neistat, OpenAI Cracks Math, The Future of ChatGPT, Apple x F1, Intel Layoffs
Jul 26, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Future consumer AI plays won't be standalone home screen apps
“It feels like the rest of consumer AI plays will be, I would say, like, horizontal in the sense that it won't be a new app on your home screen. Meta won't have Meta AI as a home screen app.”
John Coogan Jul 26, 2025 ▶ 30:17 Weekly Recap: Casey Neistat, OpenAI Cracks Math, The Future of ChatGPT, Apple x F1, Intel Layoffs
Aug 2, 2025 negative
Opinion
Coogan: The FTC blocking Meta's VR fitness acquisition made no sense
“The worst example I can think of is Meta bought a VR fitness app, and they said that Meta was trying to create a monopoly in the VR fitness market, which is just not a market at all. It doesn't even exist, and I don't know anyone that does VR fitness, and it's…”
John Coogan Aug 2, 2025 ▶ 59:12 Weekly Recap: Gwyneth Paltrow Saves Astronomer, Figma’s IPO, Top AI Researchers Ranked
Aug 8, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Andreessen: Meta Ray-Ban Glasses Prove Eye-Based Wearables Work
“Like the meta Ray-Ban glasses are a big hit. Right. Like they're a big, you know, so I think we now have a form factor that we know works, you know, for eye-based wearables”
Marc Andreessen Aug 8, 2025 ▶ 12:14 Marc Andreessen on Why Apple Might Miss the Next Platform Shift
Aug 9, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Hays: Reflection AI is in talks to raise $1B for open-source models
“It was reported yesterday by the misinformation that reflection, reflection the misinformation reported that reflection one-year-old startup we've had the CEO on before he's in talks to raise one billion to develop open source models to compete with deep sea m…”
Jordi Hays Aug 9, 2025 ▶ 1:01:36 Weekly Recap: Apple Sitting on $100B, Disney Enters The AI Race, Marc Andreessen, All About GPT-5
Aug 16, 2025 positive
Assertion Supported
Hays: Meta's Threads has crossed 400 million monthly active users
“Four is Threads, which apparently just crossed four hundred million monthly active users.”
Jordi Hays Aug 16, 2025 ▶ 2:54 Weekly Recap: Sam vs. Elon, Cluely's Crazy Ad, UFC x Paramount, Apple's AI Robot
Aug 23, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Social platforms will automate video clipping, ending human arbitrage
“Like this eventually will get competed down. A lot of this will be taken by platforms, Opus Clip, or maybe even just YouTube will do it. Instagram will do it. You'll just stream to Instagram or Facebook and it will make the clips itself.”
John Coogan Aug 23, 2025 ▶ 12:14 Weekly Recap: Mark Cuban, Kanye’s Wild Mansion Makeover, China Heads to the Moon, Money in Clipping
Sep 6, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Instagram had roughly 860,000 daily active users when Facebook acquired it.
“So when Instagram was acquired estimated around 860,000. So less than a million. DAUs.”
Tyler Cosgrove Sep 6, 2025 ▶ 1:14:20 Weekly Recap: Tesla's Crazy Plan, USA vs. Google, Palantir CEO on Conspiracy Theories
Sep 20, 2025 positive
Insight
Bosworth: Headsets reverse hardware norms because lightness is the premium feature
“A big part of what is premium in the headset space is lightness. Is weight, is comfort. Those are premium features, and that's kind of different from the previous generation. That's not how it was with phones or laptops, where you wanted it to feel solid and s…”
Andrew Bosworth (Boz) Sep 20, 2025 ▶ 5:13 Mark Zuckerberg, James Cameron, Andrew Yang and More - TBPN Top 5
Sep 20, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bosworth: Direct AI interfaces will replace traditional app stores on future devices
“And in the future, you're not going to have an app store. Like I don't need, I don't want to go figure out what the app for my toaster was called and like make sure I make toast, man. Like I said, talk to the AI and let it handle the backend.”
Andrew Bosworth (Boz) Sep 20, 2025 ▶ 3:41 Mark Zuckerberg, James Cameron, Andrew Yang and More - TBPN Top 5
Sep 20, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Wang: Scale AI's research team of 100 scientists is one-tenth competitors' size
“Our team is smaller and more talent dense than any of the other labs. The other labs are like 10 times bigger, and our team is about a hundred people of cracked AI scientists”
Alexander Wang Sep 20, 2025 ▶ 15:36 Mark Zuckerberg, James Cameron, Andrew Yang and More - TBPN Top 5
Sep 20, 2025 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bosworth: Meta Wearables VP gave a speech using prototype glasses as teleprompter
“Alex Himmel, who runs the Wearables division, a year ago, when he got the first prototype, he gave a whole speech, and nobody knew he was doing the teleprompter. Apparently on the glasses. And he was just, and he was swiping the slides.”
Andrew Bosworth (Boz) Sep 20, 2025 ▶ 14:01 Mark Zuckerberg, James Cameron, Andrew Yang and More - TBPN Top 5
Oct 9, 2025
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rosenthal: Yann LeCun is the only major AI leader not from Google
“You know, every single major leader in AI that you know of, no matter what company they are at, with the one exception of Jan LeCun at Facebook. He's the only one. Who, like, didn't come from Google.”
David Rosenthal Oct 9, 2025 ▶ 22:34 Acquired Podcast Hosts Break Down Google’s $1 Trillion Mistake
Nov 4, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Gurman: Meta's display glasses are 2-3 years ahead of Apple's
“I have the Ray-Ban displays that Meta gave me to test out. Those are amazing. And they're like two, three years ahead of whatever Apple's got.”
Mark Gurman Nov 4, 2025 ▶ 29:26 Mark Gurman on Apple Glasses Release Date, The Next AirPods, The Problem With Siri & More
Nov 4, 2025 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Gurman: Apple's 2027 smart glasses will not feature visual displays
“The first version won't have displays, like the older metal Ray-Bans or the base level metal Ray-Bans. Those are coming out in twenty-twenty-seven.”
Mark Gurman Nov 4, 2025 ▶ 27:05 Mark Gurman on Apple Glasses Release Date, The Next AirPods, The Problem With Siri & More
Nov 4, 2025 positive
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Gurman: Meta's next-gen display glasses will feature binocular screens
“The current Meta's, they have one screen in them. The second generation version will have displays in, in, in both eyes.”
Mark Gurman Nov 4, 2025 ▶ 30:43 Mark Gurman on Apple Glasses Release Date, The Next AirPods, The Problem With Siri & More
Nov 4, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Gurman: Meta glasses are the most successful AI device in years
“The meta glasses are far and away the most successful AI device brought to market in this era over the last two or three years.”
Mark Gurman Nov 4, 2025 ▶ 36:01 Mark Gurman on Apple Glasses Release Date, The Next AirPods, The Problem With Siri & More
Nov 22, 2025 neutral
Insight
Coogan: Apple's Privacy Focus Left It Ill-Equipped for AI vs. Google and Meta
“Apple has been building a brand around We don't access your data. We don't store your data. We would never train on your data. And that put them in an awkward position where they couldn't just snap their fingers and deliver a great AI experience. Whereas Googl…”
John Coogan Nov 22, 2025 ▶ 6:45 The State of AI: A Field Trip to TBPN’s Aura Farm + Today’s Top Tech Stories | Diet TBPN
Dec 11, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Hays: Meta Could Add $1T by Focusing AI Talent on Core Business
“From everything that we've seen so far, it feels like Meta could add a trillion dollars to its market cap. By just focusing all this incredible talent on just making the core business better.”
Jordi Hays Dec 11, 2025 ▶ 18:52 Nvidia’s China Shift, Meta AI Drama, Paramount's Pitch | Diet TBPN
Dec 20, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Meta is developing image and video AI model Mango
“Megan Borowski over at the Wall Street Journal has a scoop that Meta is in fact developing a new image and video focused AI model. Codename Mango.”
John Coogan Dec 20, 2025 ▶ 12:01 TBPN Year in Review
Dec 20, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dana White: Meta hired young talent with $65M average compensation
“We just hired, like, 10 kids that are aged 22 to 28, the average salary is like sixty-five million dollars that these kids are making.”
Dana White Dec 20, 2025 ▶ 13:37 TBPN Year in Review
Jan 16, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Meta hits $72B in capex and acquires AI startup Manus for $2B
“Meta's been ramping up AI spending on AI, pushing its capital expenditure to seventy-two billion last year with plans to accelerate that spending this year. It's also doled out offers worth tens of millions 1000 of millions of dollars to AI researchers and eng…”
Tyler Denk Jan 16, 2026 ▶ 22:38 Big Tech turns to mining, Thinking Machines loses top executives, NYC Sauna Wars heat up | Diet TBPN
Jan 16, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Meta lays off 1,500 metaverse staff while retaining 14,000 in Reality Labs
“Meta because they just laid off 1500 people in their metaverse division. Obviously, 1500 people is a ton. That's a lot of people. But they still have 14,000 people working on Reality Labs.”
Tyler Denk Jan 16, 2026 ▶ 21:18 Big Tech turns to mining, Thinking Machines loses top executives, NYC Sauna Wars heat up | Diet TBPN
Jan 16, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Thinking Machines could exit for $30B to $60B within two years
“Thinking machines could probably exit somewhere at between 30 and 60 today. Who has that money? I don't know. Maybe NVIDIA buys them or something. At least at some point over the next two years. I think the most likely acquirers would probably be Microsoft, Ap…”
Tyler Denk Jan 16, 2026 ▶ 14:17 Big Tech turns to mining, Thinking Machines loses top executives, NYC Sauna Wars heat up | Diet TBPN
Jan 16, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Meta sold over two million pairs of AI Ray-Ban smart glasses
“The company's Ray-Ban smart glasses equipped with AI have also started to take off. The company sold more than two million pairs, And has delayed the rollout of its newest glasses in Europe as it struggled to keep up with demand in the U.S.”
Tyler Denk Jan 16, 2026 ▶ 22:57 Big Tech turns to mining, Thinking Machines loses top executives, NYC Sauna Wars heat up | Diet TBPN
Jan 22, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Thinking Machines Retains Only Three of Six Original Founders
“The exits, coupled with fellow co-founder Andrew Tulloch's decampment to Meta last fall, leave Thinking Machines with just three of its original six founders.”
John Coogan Jan 22, 2026 ▶ 15:48 Kling AI reaches 12M MAU, China's aging tech worker crisis, drama at ThinkingMachine | Diet TBPN
Jan 30, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Meta is projected to spend $115B to $135B on AI CapEx
“Now they're gonna plot plow a hundred and thirty five billion, according to the wall street journal, New York times said one 15, but either way, it's like more than half of the revenues.”
John Coogan Jan 30, 2026 ▶ 15:59 Big Tech Earnings, Elon’s SpaceX–xAI Merge, Genie 3 | Diet TBPN
Feb 3, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Schlicht plans an identity and developer platform for AI agents
“Well, one feature that I'm very excited about is having central AI agent identity on notebook and building a platform similar to how Facebook did where Facebook had Facebook.”
Matt Schlicht Feb 3, 2026 ▶ 22:29 Full Interview: Moltbook Creator’s First Appearance Since Launch
Feb 3, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: Meta is buying small clusters from long-tail compute providers
“Well, Meta interestingly has gone down market for a compute because they, there's not enough compute in the big size deal. So they've actually gone and like bought like small clusters.”
Dylan Patel Feb 3, 2026 ▶ 40:26 FULL INTERVIEW: Dylan Patel Says We’re Still Underestimating AI
Feb 3, 2026
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: Meta poached Google search staff with massive compensation deals
“They actually poached Google search people with similar size deals as, like, these crazy...”
Dylan Patel Feb 3, 2026 ▶ 41:39 FULL INTERVIEW: Dylan Patel Says We’re Still Underestimating AI
Feb 3, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: Meta's ad algorithm drove a 9% CPM increase in one quarter
“It's clear if you look at the most recent earnings, I think their CPM went up nine percent when the consumer's weak, which means, like, if you were to, like, try and strip out, like, what is consumer spending increasing for CPM of ads versus what is the effect…”
Dylan Patel Feb 3, 2026 ▶ 37:19 FULL INTERVIEW: Dylan Patel Says We’re Still Underestimating AI
Feb 3, 2026
Assertion Partly supported
Patel: Meta licensed all of Midjourney's code, data, and models
“Meta's licensed all of Midjourney's code, data, models.”
Dylan Patel Feb 3, 2026 ▶ 39:37 FULL INTERVIEW: Dylan Patel Says We’re Still Underestimating AI
Feb 5, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Only one percent of European users pay for ad-free Facebook
“One percent in Europe for Facebook, by the way. That's the stat. They all have the option to pay for Facebook, for ad free Facebook, and only one percent pay.”
John Coogan Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 10:52 Anthropic's secret strategy behind its Super Bowl ad campaign
Feb 6, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Meta's upcoming Avocado model will reach the AI frontier
“And I think that, I do think that we are going to get something pretty powerful. Avocado is a good name. And based on the team and the compute and the money, like they're going to jump To the frontier. Like, there's just no question that they'll be really, rea…”
John Coogan Feb 6, 2026 ▶ 27:00 Anthropic’s Trust Nuke, OpenAI’s new releases, Google Claims AI Crown | Diet TBPN
Feb 6, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Only 1% of European Users Pay for Ad-Free Facebook
“They all have the option to pay for Facebook, for ad free Facebook, and only one percent pay.”
John Coogan Feb 6, 2026 ▶ 9:59 Anthropic’s Trust Nuke, OpenAI’s new releases, Google Claims AI Crown | Diet TBPN
Feb 6, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Hays: The Information reports Meta's Avocado model is its most capable internally
“According to the information, upcoming avocado model from Meta is referenced as the most capable model to date internally.”
Jordi Hays Feb 6, 2026 ▶ 26:23 Anthropic’s Trust Nuke, OpenAI’s new releases, Google Claims AI Crown | Diet TBPN
Feb 12, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Hays: Pershing Square reveals $2B stake in Meta
“Bill Ackman's Pershing Square revealed a major new stake in Meta, making up, up 10% of its portfolio, or about two billion.”
Jordi Hays Feb 12, 2026 ▶ 28:50 AI Isn’t Covid, FBI probes Tai Lopez, Mistral’s $2B Sweden bet | Diet TBPN
Feb 19, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Meta's transformer-based GEM model re-accelerates ad revenue growth
“Maybe but not before Meta's transformer-based gem model absolutely destroys ad targeting and just makes everything so much better and re-accelerates revenue.”
John Coogan Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 6:08 The SaaSpocalypse Is Over
Feb 20, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Karp's $17.2M jet spending dwarfs Meta and Palo Alto Networks CEOs
“Notably, this 17.2 figures more than double carp's executive aircraft expense in 2024 and appears elevated relative to peers with Meta CEO spending 1.8 million and Palo Alto Network CEO spending 2.4 million.”
Jordi Hays Feb 20, 2026 ▶ 13:58 The SaaSpocalypse is Cancelled, WB Back in Play, Zuck Grilled in LA Trial | Diet TBPN
Feb 20, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Meta patents AI system to simulate deceased users on video calls
“Meta has obtained a patent for an AI system that could simulate deceased users by analyzing their historical data, allowing the account to keep posting, messaging, and even making video calls in their behavioral style.”
Jordi Hays Feb 20, 2026 ▶ 19:29 The SaaSpocalypse is Cancelled, WB Back in Play, Zuck Grilled in LA Trial | Diet TBPN
Feb 20, 2026 negative
Opinion
Hays: Platforms intentionally ignore unauthorized AI content to boost engagement
“I don't think they're cooperating that hard. There's so much content of a bunch of individuals on YouTube, on Meta that is using their name and likeness and putting them in situations that they would never, ever, ever agree to. And you can argue that it's not …”
Jordi Hays Feb 20, 2026 ▶ 11:38 The SaaSpocalypse is Cancelled, WB Back in Play, Zuck Grilled in LA Trial | Diet TBPN
Feb 20, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Meta outspends all competitors on virtual reality by an order of magnitude
“And they're still spending more on VR than anybody. By an order of magnitude.”
Palmer Luckey Feb 20, 2026 ▶ 19:31 Palmer Luckey: Why I Started My Own Bank
Feb 20, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
An Oculus executive secretly intercepted Luckey's invitation to ring the NYSE bell
“Back in the Oculus days, when we sold the company to Meta, one of the first things that happened was New York Stock Exchange emailed our contact info, email, and they asked if I would come and ring the bell of the New York Stock Exchange. Sounds pretty cool, r…”
Palmer Luckey Feb 20, 2026 ▶ 22:21 Palmer Luckey: Why I Started My Own Bank
Feb 23, 2026 positive
Insight
Shah: AI strengthens true network effects like Meta over demand aggregators
“Network effects are more powerful than ever, I think, in this world. Yeah. So things like Meta really have a lot to sort of gain in that sense, but I think things that look like they're network effect businesses, but in fact are just the ones that are doing th…”
Alap Shah Feb 23, 2026 ▶ 12:01 Why My Article Just Tanked the Market
Feb 24, 2026 bullish
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Hays: Meta plans stablecoin payments comeback in second half of year
“Mark Zuckerberg's Meta is planning a stablecoin comeback in the second half of this year, eyeing a third party vendor as a key partner to power payments.”
Jordi Hays Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 26:20 Kim K's New Energy Drink, Citrini Discourse Rages On, the $100B Meta-AMD Deal | Diet TBPN
Feb 24, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Meta signs multi-year AMD Instinct GPU deal for six gigawatts
“Meta has shaken hands with AMD. They're forming a pact today. We're announcing a multi-year agreement with AMD advanced micro devices to integrate their latest instinct GPUs into our global infrastructure with a pot approximately six gigawatts.”
John Coogan Feb 24, 2026 ▶ 25:21 Kim K's New Energy Drink, Citrini Discourse Rages On, the $100B Meta-AMD Deal | Diet TBPN
Feb 25, 2026 neutral
Insight
Gurley: Index Funds Already Provide Sufficient AI Exposure for Retail Investors
“There's an interesting irony that if you wanted AI exposure, you're pretty good just owning the index. NVIDIA is such a large part of the index. You have exposure to Microsoft and Google and Facebook. Like, I don't know that you need to be in that place”
Bill Gurley Feb 25, 2026 ▶ 17:05 Full Interview: Bill Gurley Thinks College Kills Creativity
Mar 16, 2026
Assertion Supported
Hays: Reuters Reports Meta Planning Layoffs of 20% or More
“Meta is planning sweeping layoffs that could affect 20% or more of the company. Three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters, as Meta seeks to offset AI infrastructure bets and prepare for greater efficiency brought by AI assisted workers.”
Jordi Hays Mar 16, 2026 ▶ 28:58 AI vs. Dog Cancer, Timothée Chalamet Under Fire, ‘Agents Over Bubbles' | Diet TBPN
Mar 16, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Ma: Nebius and Meta Agree to $27B AI Infrastructure Deal
“Nebius and Meta have agreed to a twenty seven billion dollar AI infrastructure pact, a deal. The talks are advanced to packed stage. A five-year deal, twenty-seven billion to supply AI infrastructure capacity to Meta.”
Jon Ma Mar 16, 2026 ▶ 27:53 AI vs. Dog Cancer, Timothée Chalamet Under Fire, ‘Agents Over Bubbles' | Diet TBPN
Mar 16, 2026 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Hays: Meta Stock Will Pop Higher When Layoffs Are Announced
“I would expect this to pop even harder once these layoffs are actually announced.”
Jordi Hays Mar 16, 2026 ▶ 29:18 AI vs. Dog Cancer, Timothée Chalamet Under Fire, ‘Agents Over Bubbles' | Diet TBPN
Mar 19, 2026
Assertion Supported
Google earns $460 per US user annually, while Meta earns $250.
“Google makes. 460 dollars per user per year in the United States, mostly on ads. I didn't know that their ARPU was so high. Meta makes around 250.”
John Coogan Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 14:44 Samsung’s $70B Chip Bet, Apple Doing Nothing But Winning AI, Bezos’ New Fund | Diet TBPN
Mar 19, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Meta Reels reached a $50 billion run rate in recent years.
“Reels went from zero to fifty billion of run rate in like a handful of years, right?”
Jordi Hays Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 14:15 Samsung’s $70B Chip Bet, Apple Doing Nothing But Winning AI, Bezos’ New Fund | Diet TBPN
Mar 23, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Hays: Mark Zuckerberg is building an AI CEO agent for himself
“Mark Zuckerberg is building a CEO agent to help him do his job.”
Jordi Hays Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 25:44 SpaceX’s Lunar Mass Driver, OpenAI Hires Meta’s Top Ad Exec, Zuck Builds CEO Agent | Diet TBPN
Mar 23, 2026
Assertion Supported
OpenAI hires Meta's Dave Dugan as VP of Global Ad Solutions
“Dave Dugan, a former top advertising executive at Meta, is gonna lead sale, ad sales. Dugan, who announced earlier this month he was stepping down from his role as Vice President of Global Clients and Agencies at Meta, has been named Vice President of Global A…”
Jordi Hays Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 23:43 SpaceX’s Lunar Mass Driver, OpenAI Hires Meta’s Top Ad Exec, Zuck Builds CEO Agent | Diet TBPN
Mar 27, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Novak: Over 10,000 injury cases pending against social media platforms
“There are over 10,000 individual personal, personal injury cases, almost 800 school district claims, and 40 state level cases pending nationwide that are similar to KGM Versus Meta and YouTube.”
Turner Novak Mar 27, 2026 ▶ 25:40 Arm’s $15B Chip Bet, Sanders & AOC vs Datacenters, Meta & YouTube Lose Trial | Diet TBPN
Mar 27, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Novak: LA jury finds Meta and YouTube liable for algorithmic addiction
“Yesterday, a Los Angeles jury, both meta and YouTube liable Wah, wah. For a twenty-year-old woman's mental health crisis in a bellwether trial that treated platforms as, quote, defective products, and potentially marks the end to the absolute immunity nature o…”
Turner Novak Mar 27, 2026 ▶ 23:29 Arm’s $15B Chip Bet, Sanders & AOC vs Datacenters, Meta & YouTube Lose Trial | Diet TBPN
Mar 30, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kim: Mark Zuckerberg may waste $100 billion on frontier AI models
“I mean, reality labs, he made a waste of 70 to eighty billion dollars. He may waste a hundred billions of dollars on, on these Frontier AI models.”
Tae Kim Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 28:34 FULL INTERVIEW: Why I Think Nvidia Is Perfectly Positioned In The AI Race
Mar 30, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kim: AI chatbots threatening search positions Meta better than Google
“Like, no one's going to replace better digital ad position. I mean, like, I would even say in the AI world, they're even better positioned, because Google might lose digital ad share to AI chatbots, their search position in the future. So, like, no one's going…”
Tae Kim Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 27:10 FULL INTERVIEW: Why I Think Nvidia Is Perfectly Positioned In The AI Race
Mar 30, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kim: Meta, Google, and Nvidia engineers report severe AI compute shortages
“I met with dozens of engineers at Meta, Google, NVIDIA. And all of them are seeing crazy inference demand and AI compute shortages.”
Tae Kim Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 3:20 FULL INTERVIEW: Why I Think Nvidia Is Perfectly Positioned In The AI Race
Apr 6, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
Coogan: MedV runs 800 fake doctor Facebook accounts to sell GLP-1s
“They are apparently running 800 fake doctor accounts on Facebook to sell compounded GLP ones. Shiel Monat verified that the accounts are not actually doctors.”
John Coogan Apr 6, 2026 ▶ 10:51 The Truth Behind the “Solo Founder Billion Dollar Company”
Apr 7, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Google stock rallied after Meta's IPO disproved internet cannibalization fears
“As soon as the company went public, ironically, Google's stock started working. Because they didn't come out and tell you, we want to kill Google, or we're replicating the internet. We're doing kind of something different. Both stocks ended up working.”
Thomas Laffont Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 25:28 FULL INTERVIEW: Thomas Laffont’s Journey From Hollywood Assistant to Legendary Tech Investor
Apr 7, 2026 neutral
Insight
Laffont: Meta and Alibaba Sparked Structural Shift by Staying Private Longer
“I think what really changed for us in the early 2010 was meta. Then Facebook and Alibaba staying private for longer. We just never seen companies of that scale who were that important to our research and our market not go public.”
Thomas Laffont Apr 7, 2026 ▶ 24:32 FULL INTERVIEW: Thomas Laffont’s Journey From Hollywood Assistant to Legendary Tech Investor
Apr 27, 2026 neutral
What-if
Meta should have used a talent licensing contract to acquire Manus
“It would have been, it probably would have been easier to do something like what grok and Nvidia did or like the windsurf Google thing where like, You're bringing people over with this contract, and then, like, yes, China blocks it, but it's, like, what are th…”
Jordi Hays Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 25:24 China Blocks Meta’s $2B Manus Deal, Meta Bets on Space-Based Solar | Diet TBPN
Apr 27, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Meta deploys 1GW of ultra-long duration battery storage with Noon Energy
“They're also deploying one gigawatt of ultra-long duration storage batteries with noon energy, so some exciting deals coming out. Of Menlo Park.”
Jordi Hays Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 2:42 China Blocks Meta’s $2B Manus Deal, Meta Bets on Space-Based Solar | Diet TBPN
Apr 27, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Meta and Overview Energy plan to beam 1GW of space solar
“They're planning to beam up to one gigawatt of space solar power from orbit to Earth for around-the-clock power production.”
Jordi Hays Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 2:36 China Blocks Meta’s $2B Manus Deal, Meta Bets on Space-Based Solar | Diet TBPN
Apr 27, 2026 bullish
Assertion Supported
Generative UI is the ultimate bull case for Meta AR headsets
“Ben Thompson wrote a big bull case for the meta augmented reality headsets, not just Orion, but also the meta Ray-Ban displays today talking about as AI models get better on the fly UI generation with less Chrome, which is like the top bar and the bottom bar a…”
Jordi Hays Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 29:32 China Blocks Meta’s $2B Manus Deal, Meta Bets on Space-Based Solar | Diet TBPN
Apr 27, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
China blocks Meta's $2 billion acquisition of AI platform Manus
“China has blocked Meta's two billion dollar acquisition of artificial intelligence platform Manus after regulators reviewed whether the deal violated Beijing's investment rules.”
Jordi Hays Apr 27, 2026 ▶ 1:26 China Blocks Meta’s $2B Manus Deal, Meta Bets on Space-Based Solar | Diet TBPN
May 1, 2026
Assertion Supported
Isaac was ejected from federal court for wearing Meta Ray-Bans
“Actually, I did get kicked out of the courtroom for wearing the meta Ray-Bans.”
Mike Isaac May 1, 2026 ▶ 4:40 Inside the OpenAI vs. Elon Musk Courtroom
May 12, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Cursor, Anthropic, Meta, and Google Will Buy Cerebras Chips
“Every, every lab that has exploding demand, Cursor, Anthropic Meta, and Google, like, unless they have, like, a direct answer to this, I would see them being a buyer in the near term.”
John Coogan May 12, 2026 ▶ 18:07 Swatch & AP Collab, Cerebras Boosts IPO Price, Trump to Visit China | Diet TBPN
May 21, 2026 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2031
Hays: Apple will build proprietary smart glasses rather than partner for eyewear
“My expectation, my uninformed expectation is that Apple will just make Apple glasses, right? They will probably, I, it's hard to see them taking the route at least early on of partnering and allowing another company to influence the design language”
Jordi Hays May 21, 2026 ▶ 6:02 Google I/O: Day 1 Reactions, Goldman to Lead SpaceX IPO | Diet TBPN
May 29, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Gerstner: Meta is up for the challenge of building enterprise compute services
“Do I worry as a shareholder at some level that it's, you know, that's hard. That's hard to take a business. It's been a 120% consumer and say, okay, now we're going to be in the business of AWS and maybe even in the business of enterprise level agents. I think…”
Brad Gerstner May 29, 2026 ▶ 23:53 Where Brad Gerstner Is Investing Billions
Jun 15, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Baker: Market Skepticism on Meta Monetizing Its AI Infrastructure Is Warranted
“It just suggests that the market has an immense amount of skepticism about their ability to monetize their own asset base. And I think that's warranted given that all we've really got out of management is this concept of personal super intelligence.”
Gavin Baker Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 8:29 Gavin Baker: SpaceX Might Be the Greatest Company of All Time
Jun 15, 2026 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Baker: Meta Privately Tells Investors It Will Not Monetize GPUs Externally
“Right now Facebook is, you know, Meta is telling investors there's like no chance that we're gonna, you know, monetize GPUs externally.”
Gavin Baker Jun 15, 2026 ▶ 10:38 Gavin Baker: SpaceX Might Be the Greatest Company of All Time
Jun 16, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Leaked memo: Meta tracks billions in internal AI spend in 2026
“We've seen an exponential increase in AI usage, and we are tracking to spend billions on internal use alone in 2026. The memo said, at the same time, individuals and teams have limited visibility into and control over how they use AI. In twenty-twenty-seven, w…”
John Coogan Jun 16, 2026 ▶ 16:28 Anthropic Drama, Meta Now Tokenminning, Fox's $22B Roku Deal | Diet TBPN
Jun 16, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Hays: Meta's bull case is that AI accelerates, not threatens, it
“With Meta right now, it's, the bull case is, it's potentially the greatest business in the history. That is not threatened by AI. That actually is accelerated by AI.”
Jordi Hays Jun 16, 2026 ▶ 18:29 Anthropic Drama, Meta Now Tokenminning, Fox's $22B Roku Deal | Diet TBPN
Jun 27, 2026 negative
Opinion
Coogan: $2,200 Snap Spectacles are too chunky for real-life wear
“But Meta's is 800 dollars, and Specs from Snap is 2200 dollars. They are so chunky, they look like something you might see in a Prada ad and never in real life.”
John Coogan Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 11:58 Shifts In The Creator Economy, Kylie Jenner x Meta, GPT 5.6 Limited Release | Diet TBPN
Jun 27, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Zuckerberg Directed Meta to Build Prediction Market App 'Arena'
“Zuckerberg directed Meta to build a prediction markets app, which is a wild shift. The experimental app internally called Arena would be independent of Facebook and Instagram. It could compete for attention with Polymarket and Kalshi, the biggest prediction ma…”
John Coogan Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 18:48 Shifts In The Creator Economy, Kylie Jenner x Meta, GPT 5.6 Limited Release | Diet TBPN
Jun 27, 2026 positive
Opinion
Hays: Kylie Jenner Meta glasses look indistinguishable from normal eyewear
“If I hadn't seen the launch, I wouldn't have noticed that they were metaglasses at all.”
Jordi Hays Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 11:10 Shifts In The Creator Economy, Kylie Jenner x Meta, GPT 5.6 Limited Release | Diet TBPN
Jun 27, 2026 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Meta Reassigned 30% to 50% of Core Engineers to Data Labeling
“30 to 50% of engineers on core teams have been forcibly, forcefully reassigned to data labeling.”
John Coogan Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 16:16 Shifts In The Creator Economy, Kylie Jenner x Meta, GPT 5.6 Limited Release | Diet TBPN
Jun 27, 2026 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2031
Hays: Meta Will Likely Release Ad-Supported Smart Glasses
“I would expect to see, just like we saw the ad supported Kindle, I think we'll see the ad supported metaglasses.”
Jordi Hays Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 13:27 Shifts In The Creator Economy, Kylie Jenner x Meta, GPT 5.6 Limited Release | Diet TBPN
Jun 27, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Qualcomm manufactures chips for Meta, Snap, and Samsung smart glasses
“Zaid, who heads the division of Qualcomm, responsible for making the chips that go into the meta the meta, Snap, and Samsung smart glasses.”
John Coogan Jun 27, 2026 ▶ 15:53 Shifts In The Creator Economy, Kylie Jenner x Meta, GPT 5.6 Limited Release | Diet TBPN
Jul 1, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Hays: Meta explored vendor partnerships with prediction market providers
“The only reason, the reason I believe that is because I believe they had, Meta. Yeah. Like, was reaching out to the various prediction market providers to try to be potential, like, partners and or vendors.”
Jordi Hays Jul 1, 2026 ▶ 13:37 Rocket Lab Enters SpaceX Arena, Meta’s Prediction Market, America’s Tech Wishlist | Diet TBPN
Jul 2, 2026 negative
Opinion
Coogan: Meta lacks an AI product organization to ship features rapidly
“It feels like they have a research organization, but they don't have an AI product organization that's actively productizing things as quickly.”
John Coogan Jul 2, 2026 ▶ 12:46 The Meta Compute Debate | Diet TBPN
Jul 2, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Hays: Meta glasses product-market fit is driven by camera, not AI
“The glasses that have product market fit today are more of just like the I think the product market fit is really with the camera, not the intelligence combined with a pair of glasses.”
Jordi Hays Jul 2, 2026 ▶ 5:09 The Meta Compute Debate | Diet TBPN
Jul 2, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Coogan: Meta Should Focus on AI Consumer Hardware, Not Superintelligence
“There's probably a piece of consumer hardware that's AI enabled, like the ring or something where, or just getting really good at voice models or just getting really good at image models. And if they're a little bit more narrow and constrained, they could prob…”
John Coogan Jul 2, 2026 ▶ 17:06 The Meta Compute Debate | Diet TBPN
Jul 2, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coogan: E-commerce will adopt agentic AI shopping
“It feels like e-commerce will see agentic shopping happening. We're getting closer. Computer use is getting better. APIs are there. MCP servers and Shopify has a bunch of tools for this stuff.”
John Coogan Jul 2, 2026 ▶ 10:34 The Meta Compute Debate | Diet TBPN
Jul 2, 2026
Assertion Supported
Hays: Meta considered buying Kalshi before developing prediction market app
“Apparently, according to Bobby Allen over at NPR, meta considered buying Calci before it's developing its own prediction market app.”
Jordi Hays Jul 2, 2026 ▶ 17:51 The Meta Compute Debate | Diet TBPN
Jul 2, 2026 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2029
Coogan: Meta is probably building a real-money prediction market product
“The fact that they didn't try and acquire Manifold, they tried to acquire Kalshi, sort of signals like, hey, they're probably going the financially incentivized route”
John Coogan Jul 2, 2026 ▶ 18:24 The Meta Compute Debate | Diet TBPN
Jul 3, 2026 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Meta staff consumed 73.3T AI tokens monthly, costing $2.65B yearly
“Meta employees consumed 73.3 trillion AI tokens in a single month, which roughly costs two hundred and twenty one million a month or around 2.65 billion a year.”
John Coogan Jul 3, 2026 ▶ 29:48 Jersey Mikes's IPO, AI Lab Nationalization, SpaceX AIPhone | Diet TBPN
Jul 9, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Google Admitted Lacking Capacity to Meet Meta's AI Demand
“Because it was just within the last month that Google had said, like, hey, we don't have capacity. We don't have enough capacity for all of Meadow's demand for our models.”
Jordi Hays Jul 9, 2026 ▶ 18:38 Model Mayhem: OpenAI’s 5.6 and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 | Diet TBPN
Jul 11, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Hays: Meta's Smart Glasses Are a Bet to Take Cuts of Commerce
“The glasses are more of a new platform bet right now than AI. And I just think he wants to be in a world where you're wearing your very, very cheap pair, or maybe even free pair of glasses around. They act as your phone and your computer, and you can look at s…”
Jordi Hays Jul 11, 2026 ▶ 18:16 GPT-5.6 Reactions, Phoebe Gates’ Phia Drama, Hollywood Chases Internet Horror | Diet TBPN
Jul 11, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Top RL Data Contractors Earn Seven Figures Annually
“The top expert contractors at every data company, they're all making seven figures a year. Which is pretty crazy since people thought of data labeling as a 10 dollar an hour task, and now you have people making millions of dollars a year, because they're actua…”
John Coogan Jul 11, 2026 ▶ 24:24 GPT-5.6 Reactions, Phoebe Gates’ Phia Drama, Hollywood Chases Internet Horror | Diet TBPN
Jul 23, 2026 negative
Opinion
Meta loses to Chinese AI labs because lawsuit fears block distillation
“Moonshot and Meta are in competition and they both open source things at various times and they have APIs and there's all the different businesses. And one is fighting with one arm tied behind his back because Meta can't do distillation because they'll get sue…”
Jordi Hays Jul 23, 2026 ▶ 23:06 AI Agents Hack Hugging Face, White House Promotes Science’s Golden Age | Diet TBPN
Jul 29, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kim: Meta Will Need Six to Twelve Months for Further AI Progress
“It's going to take time. It's going to take six to 12 months before we see any more progress.”
Tae Kim Jul 29, 2026 ▶ 7:12 RSI Is Closer Than People Think, Per Tae Kim
Jul 29, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kim: Media Misconstrued Mark Zuckerberg's AI Remarks to Falsely Claim CapEx Cuts
“I think we saw earlier this month I think Reuters quoted, like Zuckerberg's about agentic AI. They took it out of context, and then every Media person was with the hot take that this Meta was seeing bad returns, and they're going to cut CapEx, and then we had …”
Tae Kim Jul 29, 2026 ▶ 1:54 RSI Is Closer Than People Think, Per Tae Kim
Jul 30, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Coogan: Employees from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google Signed AI Pause Letter
“There's this open letter from a bunch of lab employees saying like, hey, maybe we should do a mutual pause. Maybe we should all slow down. And I think even some meta researchers signed that as well, but there's like a wide group from OpenAI, Anthropic, a bunch…”
John Coogan Jul 30, 2026 ▶ 15:05 U.S. Bans New Chinese Humanoids, Zuck’s Op-Ed, eBay's $56M Lawsuit | Diet TBPN
Aug 4, 2026 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Coogan: Meta Built Two Data Centers Specifically to Power Reels Algorithm
“They built two extra data centers to be able to do the Reels algorithm, because if they didn't have that compute capacity, they could not have launched a competitor to TikTok on any normal time frame, because it was actually a compute intensive project, not ju…”
John Coogan Aug 4, 2026 ▶ 30:26 Hank Green Faces AI Backlash, OpenAI Math Advances, Million-Dollar Solo Firms | Diet TBPN
Aug 5, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Meta releases beta for Muse Code, a terminal software engineering agent
“Releasing that Muse Code in beta today. It's a terminal coding agent that Takes on complete software engineering task powered by MuSpark 1.2, a coding agent, a coding focused model update.”
John Coogan Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 29:57 Demis Is Out as DeepMind CEO, Revolut Founder Yacht Drama, AI’s Great Reverse Bank Run | Diet TBPN
Aug 8, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
LA jury awards $6 million in Meta and Google youth addiction case
“On March, 25th, a Los Angeles jury found Meta and Google slash YouTube negligent for designing platforms harmful to young people. A woman who said she became addicted to social media as a child was awarded 6000004.2 million against Meta and 1.8 million against…”
Jordi Hays Aug 8, 2026 ▶ 15:53 AI-Designed Viruses, OpenAI’s First Device, The Mansion Section | Diet TBPN
Aug 8, 2026 negative
Assertion Supported
New Mexico judge orders Meta to pay over $900 million
“A New Mexico judge has ordered Meta to pay more than nine hundred million dollars And impose new restrictions on how minors in the state use Facebook and Instagram.”
John Coogan Aug 8, 2026 ▶ 14:59 AI-Designed Viruses, OpenAI’s First Device, The Mansion Section | Diet TBPN
Aug 11, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Hays: Meta only open-sources AI models lacking exceptional demand
“I don't, like, knowing how commercial this team is, I don't think they would open source or open make the model open weights if they felt like there was going to be exceptional demand for it.”
Jordi Hays Aug 11, 2026 ▶ 14:39 Zuck’s AI Vision, Celebs Are Dating Private Equity Guys, AI Agent Hacks Gym | Diet TBPN
Aug 11, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Hays: Mark Zuckerberg lacks real AI product vision or strategy
“Ultimately, it's a lot of words from someone who I don't believe has any real vision or strategy.”
Jordi Hays Aug 11, 2026 ▶ 16:35 Zuck’s AI Vision, Celebs Are Dating Private Equity Guys, AI Agent Hacks Gym | Diet TBPN
Aug 11, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Louisiana teachers received $50k bonuses from Meta data center tax revenue.
“In Richland parish, Louisiana, where Meta's building a large data center, teachers received a 50,000 dollar bonus this year because of the increased tax revenue from their investment there.”
John Coogan Aug 11, 2026 ▶ 8:10 Zuck’s AI Vision, Celebs Are Dating Private Equity Guys, AI Agent Hacks Gym | Diet TBPN
Aug 14, 2026
Insight
Hays: Massive AI Pay Packages Create One-Year Retention Cliffs
“When you're paying these people nine figures, 10 figures many of those people are gonna basically spend a year and hit a point where they're like, okay, I have a hundred million dollars in the bank and I'm kind of good now.”
Jordi Hays Aug 14, 2026 ▶ 9:53 North Korea’s Secret US Workforce, Canceling the SaaSpocalypse, MSL’s Latest Exits | Diet TBPN
Aug 14, 2026 bearish
Prediction Held up
Hays: Meta's MSL Will See More Exits Within Two Months
“I don't think this will be the last of the exits that we see out of MSL over the next even one or two months.”
Jordi Hays Aug 14, 2026 ▶ 10:32 North Korea’s Secret US Workforce, Canceling the SaaSpocalypse, MSL’s Latest Exits | Diet TBPN
Sep 2, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Iovine: Software companies cannot build hardware and suffer from 'hardware envy'
“They're a great company, but none of these companies can make hardware, and they all have hardware envy.”
Jimmy Iovine Sep 2, 2026 ▶ 7:17 Jimmy Iovine on AI: “The Great Artists Will Show the World How to Use It”
Sep 2, 2026 bearish
Opinion
Iovine: Meta selling two million smart glasses is not a massive success
“They sold two million. They didn't sell twenty million. We sold two million headphones in Brooklyn. You know, it's not a really, it's not a massively successful.”
Jimmy Iovine Sep 2, 2026 ▶ 41:39 Jimmy Iovine on AI: “The Great Artists Will Show the World How to Use It”
Sep 9, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hays: Upcoming Frances Haugen film 'The Social Reckoning' will flop
“Yeah, so, Chad is calling it out, but I don't think that, I think this one, I think this one's gonna flop. For sure.”
Jordi Hays Sep 9, 2026 ▶ 26:01 OpenAI Cracks Navier-Stokes, Tech Trailers, AI Jobs Apocalypse on Hold | Diet TBPN
Sep 10, 2026 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hays: Meta's Muse will probably see strong adoption if integrated into Instagram
“And so if Muse works its way into Instagram, which a lot of people do use, it'll probably get a lot of adoption. If it's a separate app, it's a little bit trickier.”
Jordi Hays Sep 10, 2026 ▶ 23:05 Apple’s iPhone Duo, Meta’s Muse AI Agent, Anthropic Researcher Quits Over AI Doom | Diet TBPN
Sep 10, 2026 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hays: Meta will eventually put ads into Muse AI agent
“They can get, I, they haven't monetized it yet, but they gotta put ads in this thing, and will they do agent of commerce?”
Jordi Hays Sep 10, 2026 ▶ 16:50 Apple’s iPhone Duo, Meta’s Muse AI Agent, Anthropic Researcher Quits Over AI Doom | Diet TBPN
Sep 10, 2026 neutral
Opinion
Hays: Meta's Muse is not an Instinct clone but will compete directly
“So I don't think it's an instinct clone. I think it will compete with instinct.”
Jordi Hays Sep 10, 2026 ▶ 24:47 Apple’s iPhone Duo, Meta’s Muse AI Agent, Anthropic Researcher Quits Over AI Doom | Diet TBPN
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