defense tech

13 statements across 10 episodes · 6 bullish · 3 bearish · 8 people on the record · first statement Nov 14, 2024 by John Coogan · across every show →

Everything said about defense tech, oldest first

Nov 14, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Defense and AI Markets Could Yield Multiple $100B Winners
“I think we could see the same thing play out in defense. I think we could see the same thing play out in AI.”
John Coogan Nov 14, 2024 ▶ 2:40:41 Low T levels at Y-Combinator (ep9)
Nov 23, 2024 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
The Defense Tech Boom Was Fueled by Founders Leaving Crypto Speculation
“And it was a big shift from like the defense tech boom, the gundo boom. A lot of those guys had had rough goes in like the Wi-Fi money era, realized it was not very durable, very zero sum, and moved over to something that was more tangible.”
John Coogan Nov 23, 2024 ▶ 2:07:07 FACT CHECKERS vs. tech article (ep14)
Mar 14, 2025 bullish
Opinion
Mares: Austin is a much better hub for health and defense tech than SF
“I mean, I think that you could make a pretty compelling argument that Austin is a way better place to build a health company, a defense tech company, like any number of these sort of hard tech or other companies that You know, the Bay doesn't necessarily have …”
Justin Mares Mar 14, 2025 ▶ 1:57 Justin Mares talks Tru Med, MAHA, and the Future of CPG.
Mar 24, 2025
Insight
Maguire: Defense tech requires pairing great engineering with government sales expertise
“When you're a defense that company, you need two things. You need to build great technology. But you also need to be able to sell it, and you need to understand, like, government sales, government procurement, and Alon is a genius at building great technology,…”
Shaun Maguire Mar 24, 2025 ▶ 15:49 Shaun Maguire breaks down Wiz investment, building great teams, and the Everything App.
Apr 1, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Love: Defense tech ecosystem will fail if startups cannot scale manufacturing
“I think how this entire ecosystem, both from an entrepreneurial and a VC perspective, like defense tech, how this goes wrong is we actually cannot deliver on the systems that we are selling the government. I actually think the snowball of, like, accepting new …”
Connor Love Apr 1, 2025 ▶ 17:16 Connor Love (Lightspeed) on Everything You Need to Know About Defense Startups
Apr 1, 2025 neutral
Insight
Love: Product-led growth does not exist in defense technology
“More importantly, like, you know, the crazy thing about defense tech that I think not a lot of people realize is there's really not the concept of product-led growth. Like, you can't just dog food something with a customer, and then all of a sudden the colonel…”
Connor Love Apr 1, 2025 ▶ 2:58 Connor Love (Lightspeed) on Everything You Need to Know About Defense Startups
Apr 1, 2025
Disclosure
Love: Lightspeed backs defense from core funds, not dedicated vehicle
“What I lead a lot of is all our national security, all of our defense stuff. And it comes out of the same core funds. So it's not a separate thing where, We have to deploy five hundred million dollars a year in this.”
Connor Love Apr 1, 2025 ▶ 1:14 Connor Love (Lightspeed) on Everything You Need to Know About Defense Startups
Apr 1, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Asparouhov: Half of hard tech startups will die or sell for cheap
“So, yeah, I think there's gonna be some tough reconciliation that happens, you know, over the course of the next year or two, where it's, like, there's gonna be, like, you know, 50 to 60% of this field that's just gonna have to die off or get acquired for penn…”
Delian Asparouhov Apr 1, 2025 ▶ 13:03 Delian Asparouhov on Defense Startups, NASA, Continuing Resolution and More
Apr 8, 2025 positive
Opinion
Iyer: Defense tech founders and investors do not need military backgrounds
“I don't think you need to have a military background to do this. I think there's amazing American patriots that just want to get involved and they have really core technical skills elsewhere. I think it's helpful that, you know, folks came from the visceral op…”
Akhil Iyer Apr 8, 2025 ▶ 12:11 Why 2027 and 2049 are KEY YEARS | Akhil Iyer on TBPN April 3rd
Apr 9, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kohli notes the defense tech investing bubble shows no signs of popping
“But I haven't seen that particular bubble sort of like wind down yet. We're still seeing some pretty active, heavy, heavy investing there.”
Avlok Kohli Apr 9, 2025 ▶ 20:06 Why LPs Are Using STABLECOINS to INVEST in Startups | Avlok Kohli on TBPN April 4th
Oct 30, 2025
Insight
Defense tech catalysts leave only a six-to-twelve month window for non-obvious investing
“Even though you have a catalyst, there's probably only a six to 12 month window where defense tech is non-obvious.”
Shaun Maguire Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 14:02 Sequoia Capital Partner Shaun Maguire Live on TBPN
Oct 30, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Defense tech is now a consensus category with incredibly high valuations
“Now I think defense tech is becoming consensus. It's too obvious. And so it's like valuations are incredibly high”
Shaun Maguire Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 14:21 Sequoia Capital Partner Shaun Maguire Live on TBPN
Jun 4, 2026 positive
Insight
Karp: Defense tech competitors increase government budget allocation
“They increase the size of the market because de facto, nobody wants to find an underrated market where there's only one person. So like, if you're the one person, the percentage of the defense budget you can get is much smaller. And two, they set up a comparat…”
Alex Karp Jun 4, 2026 ▶ 15:20 Palantir CEO Alex Karp on Tokenmaxxing & Taste
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