The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Ohanian: 90% of gamers will only play games that pay them
“In five years, no one, 90% of people will not play a game unless they are being properly valued for that time.”
Coogan: Startup will demo an armed humanoid robot within six months
“I was predicting that within the next six months, I think that there will be a startup that will take one of these humanoid robots Even if it's tele-operated, give it an AR-fifteen, like a machine gun or a rifle, and just do a demo of like what this would look…”
Phan: YouTube will acquire TikTok and IPO at $500B within 12 months
“I'm making a prediction. YouTube is going to buy TikTok. They're going to spin out YouTube. It's going to go public, five hundred billion dollar company. Done. Clip this. Editor, clip this for when this happens in the next 12 months.”
Ohanian: DAO participation will be commonplace within five years
“I think everyone in five years will participate in a DAO. They won't know it necessarily. I don't think that branding is, is whack. But they won't care. Right. User experience triumphs over everything. So yeah, I think it will be pretty commonplace. Not, maybe…”
Kagan bets his new DocuSign alternative will make $1M within a year
“And then I believe, I would bet, I'll bet a million dollars, it'll make a million dollars in a year.”
Goldberg: Insurance companies will not enter crypto due to volatility
“Insurance companies don't like insuring volatile things. Right. And so they're not going to move into the space, but I think the big question of like, how do we actually solve this problem is how do you assess the intrinsic value of a digital asset, which is a…”
Greg Isenberg: Twitter Stock Will Be Flat at $43.57 in 2026
“And then, five years from now, I think it's exact, it's exactly where we are today. It's like, 43, 57, or whatever.”
Finn: Anti-prompt-injection skills will launch within two weeks
“I'm sure I'm very positive in the next week or two, there'll be official skills out there that like handle prompt injection from email, prompt injection from tweets and replies.”
Wilkinson: Standalone apps like Cal AI will face 100 clones within months
“There's tons of those, but there's going to be like a hundred of them in the app store in like two months. And then Cal AI will not be able to charge what they are.”
Ellis: Yohana will likely transition to fully AI-driven assistance
“And they use AI, and then they also have real people, which I feel like they'll probably switch to AI, fully AI in the near future.”
Trinh: Crypto market bottom is at least 6 to 9 months away
“Right now, like, I think we're probably another six to nine months of a minimum of like sliding into finding where the bottom of darkness is.”
Greg Isenberg: Twitter Stock Will Hit $58.43 By Late 2022
“Alright, I give it 58, 43, one year from now.”