why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Belsky predicts centralized and hybrid services will ultimately win in Web3
“In, in many cases, centralized services will win or hybrid, you know, decentralized by ethos, but centralized to some extent by like certain aspects of the user experience, you know, I think are maybe going to ultimately win”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Belsky: AI recommendations will cause consumers to abandon the concept of favorites
“And so, you know, that for music, that for travel, that for restaurants, that for whatever, like, maybe we're all gonna vastly increase the surface area of our exposure to stuff we like, and in some ways, like, abandon the concept of favorites altogether.”
Insight
Belsky: Creativity is the new productivity as automation commoditizes mere speed
“Creativity is the new productivity. You know, we're going to stand out increasingly in our work. And on social media and on any other thing that's, you know, amplifying our opportunity stream through our creativity, you know, it's not about doing things faster…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Belsky predicts 3D creation will democratize and go mainstream like mobile photography
“Same exact thing's gonna happen for three D. I'm like wholly convinced that that's the case.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Belsky predicts consumers will voluntarily opt back into brand tracking for AR
“We want to have experiences with brands where they know who we are. I think we're going to start opting back in. And I think especially in the world of AR, you know, where we have immersive experiences around us, we're going to want to be known everywhere we a…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2032
Belsky predicts the number of small businesses will 10x by 2032
“And in 10 years from now, I think we're going to see probably 10 X the number of small businesses as there are today.”
Insight
Belsky argues Wikipedia is the closest existing model to a DAO
“It's like a nonprofit, you know, it's the closest thing to a DAO that we basically have today. In the sense that it's communally governed and it's owned by no one essentially.”