The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Bloom: Terra Luna faces a real risk of a downward market spiral
“There's this swap mechanism where, If suddenly that yield starts to drop or if they're not able to maintain it, if people start selling rather than buying Luna, and if you have a bunch of people swapping It does create this market spiral, right? Like there is …”
Bloom: Over 10 Years, I Back Do Kwon and Terra Luna
“I actually don't know where I would land on the bet for one year from now, but 10 years from now, I like I like the Duquan side of it.”
Bloom: Fed Will Pivot on Q2 Weakness, Fueling Growth Stock Rally
“My gut tells me that we're going to see like a pretty bad Q two from an economy standpoint. Like I wouldn't be shocked if we actually saw a negative growth and people panic. I think the fed will just like reverse course very quickly. Cause they've shown an unw…”
Bloom: Psychedelic criminalization will be substantially reduced by 2031
“I do think in 10 years, it's hard to imagine the level of criminalization around psychedelics as exists today, and so if you were out in front of it and building
You should reap outsized rewards for doing that.”
Bloom: Breakout Web3 games will come from major AAA studios
“Yeah, I think they're going to have to create like a You know, like a separate entity that kind of allows it to be more free ownership and it'll come from one of those big studios. Not a, I actually don't think it'll be a new studio that raises money.”
Bloom: Ross Ulbricht Will Eventually Be Released From Prison
“I think there's, like, a broad case to be made that that he will get out at some point.”
Bloom: Open IP models will generate more memes and win long-term
“My gut tells me that more open leads to more memes, which will continue to drive growth of the ecosystem, and, I think that that will win in the long run.”
Bloom predicts many tech jobs will return to being in-person
“I think that a lot of tech jobs are going to go back to being in person versus this, like, you know, assumption that everything is going to be a remote forever.”
Bloom: Passive AI recommendations will actively increase overall societal happiness
“And part of me thinks that there's actually like a increase in overall societal happiness from having things that we love surface to us without us actually doing it. And this is like an unlock for that. If you actually have AI that suddenly is able to, maybe n…”
Bloom: Twitter stock will reach $200 with better direct response ads
“The stock is gonna be 200 dollars if you just drive more direct response ads.”
Bloom: Psychedelics will fundamentally disrupt and replace psychiatric medications
“Science is starting to show in a meaningful way that psychedelic compounds can be extraordinarily useful for people dealing with depression. I mean, we're gonna, it's gonna completely separate and completely change antidepressants, anti-anxiety medicines, and …”
Bloom: OpenSea will build or acquire a point-of-sale NFT insurance provider
“I imagine like OpenSea will work on this or will acquire a company that is going to do it.”
Bloom: A seven-figure community business can be built around wealthy retirees
“I bet you could build a seven figure community around older people that are looking to like understand how to spend and live in a more kind of Glamorous way for the remaining years.”
Bloom: More Startups Must Reprice Valuations and Rethink Employee Incentives
“I do think you're gonna see more companies having to reprice and think about employee incentives in a more comprehensive way.”
Bloom: Storytelling companies will outperform ad-arbitrage businesses in the coming years
“And so the businesses that are thriving and that are going to continue to thrive in the coming years are going to be the ones that actually have a story to tell and tell it really effectively.”
A Mega-Creator Venture Fund Would Dominate Individual Creator Funds
“If you bring these people together, if you had the collective sway,
Of a bunch of the biggest YouTubers, a bunch of the biggest Twitter, a bunch of the biggest TikTok a bunch of the biggest Instagram, et cetera, and you kind of brought it into a single fund, t…”
Bloom: The World's Fair revival will scale down to survive
“My prediction would be it gets boiled down to something more manageable and doable. And that, like, I think his ambition and his energy is amazing, and I never like to bet against people that have good energy. So, I would guess he ends up getting something spu…”