why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Butcher: NFTs are sustainable for artists only if they maintain networks
“I think NFTs do offer a sustainable way for artists to make money, but there's also that is contingent on their ability to like build and maintain a network”
Insight
Butcher: Web3's core promise is divesting platform ownership to contributors
“And, you know, the macro promise of Web three, in my opinion, is kind of slowly divest ownership of this thing and allow the people that have contributed to it for all of these years benefit from the network effect.”
Insight
Butcher: Real-world value exchange is constrained by legal rules, not tech
“A lot of it is like how value is exchanged in the real world is more held up by the rules than it is the technology that makes it possible.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Butcher: Twitter will not be used in its current form by 2030
“I'm going to say no. I think we're going like fractured networks will Spin off my vision is like, maybe Twitter is a protocol, right?”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Butcher: By 2030, fewer people will be designers, but more will design
“I think less people calling themselves graphic designers, but more people doing graphic design and inverted commas, more people like generating visuals, whether that's like through a text interface or like sitting down.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Butcher: Traditional job titles will fade over the next 10 to 30 years
“I just think job titles in general probably gonna be Not as prominent in our culture in 10, 20, 30 years time, especially for the terminally online, like ourselves.”
Insight
Butcher: Build educational material only after verifying existing audience demand
“Making that leap, I think is Quite empowering when you're making the material, when somebody's asked you to do it, right. As opposed to you, like just sitting down at a keyboard with a blank piece of paper and saying, I'm going to teach people this, and this k…”
Insight
Butcher: Productizing a skillset allows infinite sales with zero replication cost
“If you have a skillset and you can organize it and productize it in a way that can transmit it to other people. You can essentially build it once and sell it infinitely zero cost of replication.”
Insight
Butcher: The three stages of agency business maturity and specialization
“The really, really bad version of the agency business is like, I'll do anything for anyone. And that's like version zero. And then version one is like, I'm going to do this very specific thing for everyone. And then version two is I'm going to do this very spe…”
Insight
Butcher: Tokenization enables upside sharing when formal hiring is impossible
“And in like an internet native world, hiring everybody as a contractor or W two employee that wants to contribute to the network is just not possible. Like it's literally not possible. So the friction that you can remove by tokenizing some of that process is i…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Butcher: Consumer NFT adoption by 2030 will center on loyalty and ticketing
“It'll probably be like a loyalty card or a plane ticket or a concert, something like that, you know, something that's like Membership oriented in some way, like to interact with a business in some fashion, I reckon.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Butcher: AI output quality will still depend on creator talent
“The ability to create prompts, there's still going to be differentiated outputs based on the talent of the person who is using the technology.”
Insight
Butcher: Visualizing other creators' ideas unlocks distribution when they retweet it
“Finding ideas that other people had already kind of perfected, add some visual context. They retweet it. My network grows as a function of that.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Butcher: Visualize Value reached 10,000 students by the end of 2020
“That was like, you know, critical mass, got to probably 10,000 students by the end of twenty-twenty from the summer.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Butcher: Visualize Value's Daily Manifest has reached 15,000 to 20,000 downloads
“And yeah, that product is now free. There's 15,020 thousand downloads at this point.”