The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Not checkable as stated
Siu: Friend's performance agency generates $30M profit on $80M revenue
“So one of my friends, his pay for performance agency does eighty million dollars a year, thirty million in profit, and they have like 30 employees.”
Eric Siu Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 1:13 I can't believe he gave away these GENIUS 3 AI startup ideas (watch this)
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Siu: Apple will sell over 500,000 Vision Pro units within 12 months
“They're breaking that.”
Eric Siu Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 14:13 I can't believe he gave away these GENIUS 3 AI startup ideas (watch this)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Siu: AI co-pilots make software developers 4x to 8x more effective
“With AI co-pilots and everything, like developers are becoming four to eight, eight X more effective.”
Eric Siu Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 14:35 I can't believe he gave away these GENIUS 3 AI startup ideas (watch this)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siu: Voice AI agents will eventually close SaaS deals autonomously
“It'll probably get to a point where eventually it can just close the customer too, especially if it's SaaS or help a customer or try to set up phone calls to move over to your AEs.”
Eric Siu Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 6:17 I can't believe he gave away these GENIUS 3 AI startup ideas (watch this)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Siu: Solana micro-incentives boosted internal tool engagement by 77%
“That increased our engagement on a lot of these tools by like, I think it was like 77%.”
Eric Siu Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 12:31 I can't believe he gave away these GENIUS 3 AI startup ideas (watch this)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Siu: Top agencies sold for 15x to 20x EBITDA prior to 2022
“Pre twenty-twenty-two, you're at five million EBITDA, you can sell for 15 to 20, if, like, your agency's really good 15 to 20 X. And so, that's like a hundred million dollar business, if you wanted to sell.”
Eric Siu Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 23:45 I can't believe he gave away these GENIUS 3 AI startup ideas (watch this)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siu: Agencies have a 1-2 year window to exploit programmatic SEO
“I think we're going to see more agencies doing programmatic SEO too. Cause like, you know, you had this one to two year window where you can do it, and I think search just changes.”
Eric Siu Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 26:06 I can't believe he gave away these GENIUS 3 AI startup ideas (watch this)
Assertion Supported
Siu: Spiralize operates as a pay-for-performance CRO agency taking revenue cuts
“You know, there's actually a pay for performance CRO agency based in Atlanta. I think they're, I forgot their name. I would, oh, spiralize. That's their name. And let's say your conversion, your e-com conversion rates one percent right now. I'm like, okay, wel…”
Eric Siu Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 8:55 I can't believe he gave away these GENIUS 3 AI startup ideas (watch this)
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