why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Siu: Friend's performance agency generates $30M profit on $80M revenue
“So one of my friends, his pay for performance agency does eighty million dollars a year, thirty million in profit, and they have like 30 employees.”
Insight
Siu: Skilled marketers should charge on performance instead of retainers
“And my whole thing is, as a marketer, if you're a good marketer, you would charge on performance, right? But most people aren't willing to take the risk.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Siu: Apple will sell over 500,000 Vision Pro units within 12 months
“They're breaking that.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Siu: AI co-pilots make software developers 4x to 8x more effective
“With AI co-pilots and everything, like developers are becoming four to eight, eight X more effective.”
Disclosure
Siu: Major crypto exchanges are actively seeking performance marketing deals
“Finance depends on like, you know, I think there are a lot of crypto companies reaching out to us right now. A lot of the biggest exchanges, they all want to do pay for performance and, you know, there's money in crypto.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siu: Voice AI agents will eventually close SaaS deals autonomously
“It'll probably get to a point where eventually it can just close the customer too, especially if it's SaaS or help a customer or try to set up phone calls to move over to your AEs.”
Insight
Siu: Value-based pricing captures 4x to 8x more revenue than cost-savings
“You can either try to save a company money and take a percentage there, or you can just go straight for the value and you'll capture like four to eight times more.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Siu: Solana micro-incentives boosted internal tool engagement by 77%
“That increased our engagement on a lot of these tools by like, I think it was like 77%.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Siu: Top agencies sold for 15x to 20x EBITDA prior to 2022
“Pre twenty-twenty-two, you're at five million EBITDA, you can sell for 15 to 20, if, like, your agency's really good 15 to 20 X.
And so, that's like a hundred million dollar business, if you wanted to sell.”
Insight
Siu: Earning $5M to $20M in agency profit equals an annual exit
“If your agency's doing, you know, five, 10, twenty million dollars in profit a year, that's an exit for you every single year.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siu: Agencies have a 1-2 year window to exploit programmatic SEO
“I think we're going to see more agencies doing programmatic SEO too.
Cause like, you know, you had this one to two year window where you can do it, and I think search just changes.”
Assertion Supported
Siu: Spiralize operates as a pay-for-performance CRO agency taking revenue cuts
“You know, there's actually a pay for performance CRO agency based in Atlanta. I think they're, I forgot their name. I would, oh, spiralize. That's their name. And let's say your conversion, your e-com conversion rates one percent right now. I'm like, okay, wel…”
Disclosure
Siu: Personal longevity practitioner billed $5,000, including a $2,800 supplement
“So, like, the last invoice I got was, like, 5000 dollars, and, like, one of the supplements alone was, like, 2800.”