why aren't all 1,218 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 10 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Schneider: Focus Tree scaled to two million users via creator marketing
“I know Lauren has like scaled from like zero to it's like two million users or something like that. Now. I don't know since the last time I talked to him, like where, where it's at, but this is how this can be used.”
Assertion Partly supported
Schneider: Wish hit a billion-dollar valuation in 18 months via cheap Facebook ads
“Wish.com became a billion dollar company in like 18 months with Facebook ads in the early days. And the reason is you could get, like, one cent link clicks on Facebook ads, and there was nobody else running ads to, like, cheap shit that was being basically imp…”
Assertion Contradicted
Schneider: Tally's ChatGPT referral traffic plummeted after a model update
“A great example of this is the Tally founder has this graph where it's like, absolute liftoff, right? It's going crazy. GPT-V drops, they, like, it changes the entire search algorithm within ChatGPT, and their referral from that, their, like, basically referra…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Schneider: AI search referral traffic can achieve 40% conversion rates
“I've seen like 40%.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Schneider: Find AI traffic in Search Console by filtering for 50+ characters
“So if you go to your Google Search Console and you filter queries that have a length of over 50 characters, you're going to see these queries that no human would ever write. Like the old, it is only AI writing them. Like if you actually drop these queries into…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Schneider: Site owners charge $500 per link on AI-referenced URLs
“They're like paying basically like 500 dollars per link that's being included on these, right?”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Schneider: All AI SEO tools operate via synthetic chat testing
“Basically what they do is they go and they send synthetic data to all of these chats. Like whether you pick any of these like AI optimization, search optimization tools, they send synthetic data to these chats. They get the results back. They look at what's be…”
Assertion Supported
Cheung: The Rundown Gained 150K+ Followers In One Year Using AI Avatars
“We started doing it and it's been under a year and we've grown to over a 150,000 followers.”
Assertion Supported
Robinson: Linear uses Cursor agents to enforce a zero-bug policy
“They have a zero bug policy and they use cursor.
If you look, this is inside of linear.
Let's see if I can make this a little bigger.
maybe not.
Well PM reports a bug.
The AI categorizes it.
The engineer who's triaging just tells cursor, Hey, investigate this…”
Assertion Supported
Schneider: Google Ads exact match no longer limits to exact queries
“Exact match isn't actually exact match though on Google anymore. It used to be in the past. I could be like, anytime somebody searches this keyword, show my ad, they now technically expand the audience and it's total bullshit. I hate it.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Schneider: AI avatar videos perform best for SaaS ads right now
“This is an AI avatar video. And the reason I'm suggesting this is because AI avatar videos, we see those perform best for SAS right now.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Schneider: Casual podcast and in-car AI video formats are ripping right now
“These are ripping right now when it's kind of this like podcast style. Or like car ones, where it's like casual.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
James built a 50-page SEO website in four hours using Claude Code
“Using Claudecode, I was able to do all of this in a matter of hours. So actually I did it over the weekend. It took me around four hours or so to get the site live, To do months worth of SEO work and push it live.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
James: Claude Code-Built Website Generated Thousands in Revenue in One Day
“And as you mentioned at the beginning you know, this actually started generating thousands of dollars of revenue yesterday. This phone started blowing up and now the mechanics basically fully booked up for the next few days.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
James: Claude Code autonomously generated website internal linking without instructions
“Claude code knew what to do. It discovered it on its own. I didn't need to tell it to go and, you know, create internal linking on the website.”
Assertion Supported
Isenberg: Facebook Groups still has a billion active users
“There's still a billion active users in Facebook groups”
Assertion Supported
Schneider: Traditional UGC agencies charge $6,000 for five video ads
“I know there's some agencies that are UGC agencies that are traditional. They're using real humans and they're charging so much money for this like basically the creative development and, you know, six grand for five videos.”
Assertion Supported
Woodward: Google's Veo 3 adds sound to AI video generation
“Today's announcement is actually the ability to take this VO three model, which is unbelievable because it has incredible realism and physics and everything on the visual side, but it also adds sound. And so you can create these videos. They're 8:02 clips, sev…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Woodward: Engineers Emerge as Key Users for Google's Stitch UI Tool
“We originally thought like, okay, who might like this? Maybe it's designers. Maybe it's PMs. Turns out engineers really like this tool because they can describe maybe a screen if it's like someone trying to start a company and they get like good base level of …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Isenberg: Grok 4 Code Mode Rivals Bolt, Lovable, and Replit
“So this is similar to how, you know, if you're going to use something like a bolt or a lovable replet, it's going to do something similar. Now you have this with grok four as another option for you to go and go and do this.”
Assertion Supported
Isenberg: Claude uniquely supports MCPs and shareable Artifacts web apps
“You can use MCPs in Clode, and you can't use it in some of the other platforms, as well as Artifacts. Which are basically just shareable web web apps.”
Assertion Supported
GenSpark lacks self-serve cancellation, requiring an email or phone call
“I couldn't find a self-service cancellation option directly on GenSpark's website. And then it gives you email support and a phone number, and there's no self-service option.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Riley Brown says Perplexity built its business on a single search tool
“Perplexity built a billion-dollar company, right, in the beginning, adding one single tool, basically, which was search the internet before responding. They built a billion dollar company doing that, and this gave its responses incredible context where no othe…”
Assertion Contradicted
Riley Brown: Every Action in Notion Is Programmable Through MCP
“Google Docs makes it impossible, but Notion, literally every single action you could take in Notion is now programmable through this MCP. So an AI agent can just do those things directly if it has access to the Notion MCP server with all of those different too…”
Assertion Contradicted
Isenberg: PDF.ai generates at least $1M in annual revenue
“Just like, you know, the guy from, you know, pdf.ai, you know, I think this guy does, like, at least a million dollars a year in revenue, and it's just chat with any pdf document.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
MCP workflows compress 40 hours of SEO research into 30 seconds
“So that alone, like if you want to do like manual keyword research and you're not like a super, you know, search or SEO or digital marketing professional, that could take you 20, 30, 40 hours to go into a tool, to analyze the keywords, to look at the competito…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Survey reveals brand safety is the top AI challenge for marketers
“You know, in our community, we actually did a survey. Hey, what are some of the biggest challenges that marketers are having with AI? And one of the biggest challenges that they're having is is brand safety and keeping things aligned toward their brand. So mos…”
Assertion Supported
Courtney: Shopify and Duolingo mandate AI proficiency for all hires
“Both Shopify and Duolingo came out saying basically all of the employees have to learn all the AI tools, plus they're not going to hire people who don't know how to use the tools anymore. So it's now an entry requirement.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Isenberg: Custom software building costs have collapsed to pennies
“The custom tool building costs have basically collapsed. So you can build personalized software for pennies, basically.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Isenberg: At Least 50% of LinkedIn Home Feed Posts Are Video
“And then some people are, like, if you go to the LinkedIn home feed, at least 50% of the posts are video now.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Huber: Most Local Wealth Comes from Boring Businesses, Not Tech
“The wealthy people that I know, the wealthy people in my town the ones with giant beach houses in the outer banks and private jets at the local airport, almost all of them did something boring underground utilities, a surveying company, HVAC business, you know…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Isenberg: GPT-4o Image Gen Is Ready for CPG Packaging Mockups
“Foro is getting good enough that you can just use it to mock up CPG design.”
Assertion Contradicted
Brown: Vibecode is the first app to build mobile apps directly on phones
“Yeah, I mean, ah, we just launched, ah, two days ago, launched Vibecode app, ah, which is the first ever app that builds mobile apps directly on your phone.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Denk: Many newsletters earn thousands of dollars passively per week via beehiiv
“That is the boost network, which we'll get further into, but also how a lot of these newsletters are earning thousands of dollars per week passively. They're driving new subscribers, which is good for them in their newsletter. Along the way, one in five people…”
Assertion Supported
Denk: Morning Brew's referral program drove over one million total subscribers
“I built the referral program back at morning brew that worked extremely well. It led to over a million subscribers from morning brew today.”
Assertion Supported
Isenberg: Apps like Cal AI are currently generating $20M ARR
“For example, the one, the flavor right now is Cal AI, you know, apps like that. Like those companies are doing like twenty million dollars ARR on, on downloading an app.”
Assertion Supported
Choi: Manus AI autonomously browses, researches, plans, and executes beyond coding
“This is a little bit different because it does more than just coding. It actually does the research. It actually goes to the browser, and it actually catches captures the information from there directly, and then it takes all that context into its planning, an…”
Assertion Supported
Choi: Manus AI Generates Project Architecture Without Requiring Boilerplate Templates
“Another cool thing about this is that you don't have to have a Like a project structure as you see on other tools, like where, you know, people say, go clone this, you know, template, you know, this boilerplate code, and you can use that to build your app and …”
Assertion Supported
Choi: Chinese AI Companies Like Manus Must Share Data With Government
“I think the, one of the biggest thing is that if you are a Chinese company I think you're obligated, obligated to give access to the government.”
Assertion Partly supported
Choi: Users Can Bypass Manus AI Session Limits Using Open Threads
“When you reach a maximum limit, just a different session and it will, you can tell to do something else.”
Assertion Partly supported
Schneider: Perspective.co bootstrapped to $10M ARR in three years
“They're out of Berlin, out of Germany. Self-funded, bootstrapped, ten million ARR in like three years.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Schneider: Built AI app with Replit in an hour, drove 20,000+ visitors
“Like Replit built the application in an hour. We had it live in an hour. And then I put a tweet out and we drove, I think so far over like 20,000 people have gone to the website and we validated the idea because somebody bought it.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Isenberg: Notion AI's true growth came from automating specific, recurring document types
“Notion AI started as a simple tool to help users write better content. But their real growth came when they focused on automating specific, specific document types that users were manually creating over and over.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Isenberg: QuickBooks Users Export 250 Million Financial Reports Annually
“And I realized that, you know, QuickBooks QuickBooks users export two hundred and fifty million financial reports annually.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Park: 50-follower accounts frequently beat 70k-follower accounts in short-form views
“We've posted the same, same content, literally the same content on, you know, our main account that has 70,000 followers and an account that had, I believe at the time, like 50 followers. And it's not really that, you know strange for the account with 56 follo…”
Assertion Supported
Isenberg: Jenni AI's essay POV series generated over 300M views
“POV, you have an essay due. That video series has generated 300 plus million views overall.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Isenberg: One video series generated $500k in revenue for Jenni AI
“One series, one video series made us half a million dollars.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Park: Jenny AI Cut Churn from 20% to 9.8%
“I mean, that's one of the really proud things that we've done is we went from like 20% churn
to like nine to like around 9.8% churn. We more than half it”