The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,791 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 43 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Finn: OpenClaw hardcodes models and requires framework updates for new releases
“OpenClaw, like every model is like hard coded in to OpenClaw. So you have to like ask them to switch models. And when new models come out, you have to wait for OpenClaw to update with that newest model.”
Isenberg: Niche agent-first action apps will be acquired like Instagram was
“Like I think someone can go and create a studio that just focuses on action apps. And I think those, you know, assuming they're picking the right niche, assuming it's a real pain point, assuming the customer has willingness to spend on that pain point. There's…”
Isenberg: Thousands of AI employee agencies will successfully launch
“I think that there's a, there's just, you know, thousands and thousands of companies that are going to come and do this, set this up and there's opportunity for all of them.”
Isenberg: AI slop will fail in 2026 while high-quality AI media thrives
“I don't, I'm not a believer that AI slop is going to work in 20, 26 and beyond. Like, I think that that's frankly a waste of time, but I do think that using AI to create media companies that are actually high quality, maybe with some, with a human in the loop …”
Wilkinson: 5M to 10M context windows will enable AI-run companies
“And I feel like once the context window is like 5,000,010 million, then we'll be able to run entire companies with this.”
Wilkinson: A 'Her'-style AI assistant will be built within years
“I've basically just accepted that I'm going to live in Claude code until somebody builds her which I'm sure is coming in the next couple of years.”
Wilkinson: Home services and brick-and-mortar face robotics risk in 10-20 years
“I'm either buying like something with a moat, which is very, very hard to find certainly in technology right now home services, businesses, like very, very brick and mortar kind of stuff. But even that I think is at risk with robotics over the next 1020 years.”
Wilkinson: Addepar will not be able to sustain premium pricing much longer
“I don't think that they're going to be able to do that for too much longer because there's going to be a lot of competition that comes out. Hopefully somebody watches my video and says, I'm going to build this too, and then go crush Adapar.”
Liu: Benchmark memo told portfolio companies to radically rethink operations for AI
“One of the benchmark partners sent out this memo about, like, you know, it was basically a wake-up call to all of the portfolio companies to, like, you know, get with the program and, like, really radically rethink how you operate your business, like, immediat…”
Liu: Agent market will split into unscalable prototypes and clunky builders
“Where I see the landscape fragmenting into like, there's going to be really easy, fun kind of prototyping tools and products that are kind of like easy to get started with, but then ultimately don't scale with you as you want to become like a real serious ente…”
Riley Brown: Codex is the only platform combining vibe coding and knowledge work
“It is the only interface that does vibe coding and knowledge work in one platform.”
Brown: AI will autonomously build and use custom tools within a year
“If you think about where we were even a year ago and then you think about where we will be a year from now, you know it may just create its own Canva a year from now and then use that. It might be like, oh, it'd be way faster for me to just create my own tool …”
Ross Mike: Tooling and harness will matter more than base model improvements
“The next iteration is probably going to get better, but the harness and the tools that you surround it, the context that you give it is going to matter even more.”
Isenberg: Fully Autonomous Businesses Will Soon Reach Eight-Figure Revenues
“I think that we're going to get to a point where these ambient businesses or autonomous businesses are going to start doing seven, eight figures.”
Isenberg: Agents Will Hire Other Agents, Dissolving Fixed Tech Stacks by 2030
“I believe that, you know, 2025 to 20 30, The agent economy is, is here. So agents discovering and hiring other agents on the fly. So fixed tech stacks dissolving.”
Isenberg: YC Predicts Over 300 Vertical AI Unicorns Will Emerge This Decade
“YC predicts that there's going to be 300 plus unicorns in vertical AI in, in, in, you know, this decade.”
Isenberg: Original, Weird Human Thinking Will Command a Premium Over Generic AI
“Just like being weird is going to sell in twenty-twenty-six and beyond. Because a lot of these LLMs are just, they're not good at being weird”
Isenberg: Forking Entire Businesses Like GitHub Repositories Will Soon Become Commonplace
“I also believe that You know, forking a business, like how you fork a repo on GitHub is going to be very common.”
Isenberg: The most valuable AI software will rely on data scraping backbones
“The most valuable software products are going to be using this data scraping tool at the backbone because it makes their AI 10 times smarter.”
Gaskill: Founders using AI agents are 10 to 20 times more productive
“The founders and employees that are utilizing agents are like, no word of a lie, 10 to 20 times more productive in their day.”
Henry: AI agent rewritten onboarding drove record daily new user signups
“He has completely rewritten my onboarding, because he has the analytics from my app, and you can see here, it's massively helped. This got published two days ago, and this is the most new users I've had in a day for a long, long time.”
Henry: OpenAI owns OpenClaw and will tighten its security
“I think now OpenAI own OpenClaw. The security is going to get a lot tighter. Things are going to be a lot, lot smoother.”
Henry: Ernesto Lopez scaled apps to over $70K MRR using Larry Brain
“Ernesto Lopez has used Larry brain to scale to over 70,000 MRR. He's implemented it in his apps using his already created content creation. He's implemented the Larry loop to improve the content he was already creating and will Was already winning, and he's ha…”
Isenberg: Future SaaS businesses will start as human-operated service businesses
“A lot of these future of SAS businesses are actually going to start off as service businesses with human beings at the core of it. It's actually going to start as being you, the person to actually go and fulfill the task.”
Isenberg: 99.99% of People Won't Build Personal LLM Systems, Leaving Massive Alpha
“Well, what's cool about this is 99.99% of people are not going to spend the time to actually set up something like this and make it a part of their daily lives. And the alpha, so to speak, is in terms of leading a more productive, happier, healthier, Better, m…”
Isenberg: Really big AI agent winners will emerge within three months
“Like over, you're going to see over the next two to three months, like some really big winners. And you're going to start to see it work.”
Isenberg: AI Will Drive Layoffs Alongside a Golden Age of One-Person Businesses
“You know, unfortunately there are going to be more and more layoffs as AI helps with productivity. At the same time, I think there's going to be a renaissance, the golden age of entrepreneurship, and people creating assets, products like this, one person busin…”
Chu: Lead Generation Businesses Will Never Go Away
“I don't think lead generation as a business is ever going to go away.”
Isenberg: Niche Directories Will Survive AI Search While Horizontal Ones Suffer
“In a world where people are going to LLMs for search or AI search takes over that in fact the niche directories are the ones that stay and the ones that are horizontal directories actually Get hurt.”
Linton: GPT-5.3 Codex beat Opus 4.6 on SWE-bench Pro and TerminalBench
“Five, five, three codecs did win on SWD bench pro terminal bench overall. It's like scored better on coding benchmarks. So probably better end end app generation.”
Kevin Rose: Gemini Search Grounding Bypasses Scraper Blocks on Sites Like Reddit
“Oftentimes they won't come out and say this, but they kind of crawl the article and give you back what the article actually says. And they might reword it a little bit, but it's largely what the article says. And I can prove that because they can, you can do t…”
Finn: Claudebot Autonomously Built and Submitted Features for Creator Buddy
“It actually found, you know, that this story, articles are popping on X. Elon's giving away a million dollars, and it actually built out article functionality for me in my SaaS creator buddy, right? So I have this app creator buddy. It's all about X content. A…”
Greg Isenberg: Cloning billion-dollar software will not work in 2026
“Like there's so many people and there's a lot of tutorials about this, like cloning billion dollar software. You know, I cloned a four billion dollar software. Look at me, but that's not the type of software that's going to work in 20, 26.”
Kerner: 51% of Social Media Purchases Happen on Facebook Marketplace
“51% of all recent social media purchases, so like not Amazon, social media purposes, all happened on Facebook Marketplace, ok?”
Kilpatrick: Gemini 3.0 Pro API undercuts GPT-5.1 Pro and Claude 4.5
“The actual model is two dollars per million input tokens and 12 dollars per million output tokens. So it's priced below some of those sort of comparable competitive models like GBT, 5.1 pro as an example, and Claude 4.5.”
Nixon: AI will fully commoditize basic informative video content
“What I try not to do is an information dump because I think that's going to be heavily commoditized by AI. There's going to be no point in having a human do it.”
Nixon: Sora 2 Will Create Multi-Millionaires in the Coming Weeks
“There's going to be millionaires, many, many millionaires minted, multi-millionaires over the next few weeks with messing around with Sora too.”
Roberto Nixon: Builders Can Create 7-Figure Internet Businesses in 24 Months
“I truly believe that if you're listening today, you can productize yourself, just literally take your expertise, your knowledge, your interests, your passions, what, you know, what you're good at, what you love, and you can package that up into a really, reall…”
AI will cut animated TV episode production budgets to $30,000
“I think the budgets will get down to, like, to do another, like, He-Man or Thundercats, you could probably do it for, like, 30 grand on the super lowest end between all the roles if you're doing it, like, at scale and at volume.”
Sora 2 replaces video ad production that traditionally cost $100k+
“You would have to pay someone 100,000 of dollars to actually, like, conceptualize this, build this and now you can do this you know, pretty simply.”
Mack claims his project is the first end-to-end AI video editor
“The world's first AI in-to-in video editor.”
Simons: Bolt Hackathon broke world records with 130,000 participants and 1M apps
“The world record for the largest hackathon prior to this hackathon was 66,000 people. On day one, we crossed that number. At the end, we had over a 130,000 people, and over a million new web apps were created in, in that 30 day period.”
Simons: AI will augment workers rather than replace them
“Most people think AI is going to replace them, but in, in reality, it's just gonna augment them and supercharge them.”
Isenberg: People who master AI tools will achieve godlike capabilities
“The people who figure out how to use these tools are going to come out on the other side of this
Like godlike in the sense that they're gonna able to do things that they never dreamt was possible.”
Isenberg: Bolt builds apps in seconds that once cost millions
“We're at the stage where you can literally take, like, a website app idea you have, Throw it into Bolt, and it's going to design something for you and build it for you in a matter of seconds. Something that you'd have to hire a team of designers and engineers …”
Isenberg: Consumer AI apps aren't saturated; 100+ Cal AI spin-offs will succeed
“And I think that people think that
it's getting saturated with consumer mobile apps, but I don't think that's the case.
That's my hot take.
I think there's going to be so, so many examples of, you know, there's gonna be like a hundred, you know, mini versi…”