why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Ball: Build Compelling Social Products First, Not Consumer Computing Platforms
“We have this ongoing lesson that trying to build the next big platform in computing, especially on the consumer side, less so on the enterprise side, you shouldn't seek to do it.
And by that, I mean, there's this classic example of we've always known that a qu…”
Opinion
Isenberg: Microsoft Phi Models Fail in Many Practical Use Cases
“Microsoft also has their open model family. It's called FI. I think it's interesting if you care about smaller, faster, lower latency models. But for a lot of use cases I haven't seen it work very well.”
Insight
Isenberg: Micro-SaaS must target high polish in a niche market
“If you think about micro SaaS, you want to innovate in a niche and you want it to be high polished.
If you think about a plugin, what is a plugin?
A plugin is like a Shopify app.
You're like built on top of someone's ecosystem.
You're a WordPress app.
It's nic…”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Jan 2025
Senra: 28 of Microsoft's first 30 employees were programmers
“The first 30 employees of Microsoft, 28 programmers,
Bill Gates, secretary and assistant, and Bill Gates, and Bill was doing all the sales.
He was all founder-led sales.”
Disclosure
Isenberg: Trimmed Google stock position to reallocate into Microsoft
“I had a bigger stake in Google and trimmed it a little bit. Roy, Royal Bank, and I trimmed it because of And put it into Microsoft basically.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Isenberg: Niche AI software suites will emerge within 12 to 18 months
“But I think in 12 to 18 months, what we'll see is some of these suites come up. Of course, some of them will be from incumbents, like the Adobe's already starting that Microsoft Microsoft courses already starting that Microsoft designer, et cetera. But there's…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Phan: OpenAI and Microsoft will ultimately become AI cloud infrastructure providers
“I think the long-term economics for OpenAI and Microsoft which obviously owns about, we'll end up owning 45, 49% of it, is they're gonna have to be kind of a cloud provider. And they're going to want as many people to plug in as possible.”
Assertion Partly supported
Senra: Microsoft generated $140M in revenue and $39M in profit pre-IPO
“The year before they went public, which was maybe 1976.
Can you double check to see if I'm right about this?
They were doing one hundred and forty million a year in revenue and thirty nine million a year profit.”
Assertion Supported
Bloom: Bing reaches 126 million unique monthly US users
“Bing. One hundred twenty-six million unique U.S. Users. Apparently, like, half of the U.S. Still searches on Bing”