The Ledger
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Vinyals: Context Windows Will Grow 10x for Commodity and SOTA AI in 1-2 Years
“I expect, I mean, order of one, two years, you might see, wow, we went another order of magnitude from both state of the art and, of course, what's considered a commodity. So I'm pretty certain about this.”
Vinyals: Gemini Reasons Over Entire Books Rather Than Compressing to Single Vectors
“The problem with, of course, retrieval based methods is they tend to simplify things to say, hey, like this whole book is just a single vector. Whereas if you just upload a whole book into Gemini and ask questions, it can really reason about every single word,…”
Vinyals: AlphaGo compute was mostly RL self-play, unlike modern LLM pre-training dominance
“Historically, if you look at AlphaGo, which actually followed quite closely the recipe of you pre-train your model on all human data, you then use RL to make it better, and then you do some search at inference time, the compute there was very skewed for the mi…”
Vinyals: Gemini formed by merging parallel LLM efforts across Brain and DeepMind
“One was that the Gemini project was formed as a result of having two sort of Parallel efforts on LLMs, mostly led by Google Brain and what we now call Legacy DeepMind. So earlier in the year, there was an effort to merge the two projects, and that's when sort …”
Vinyals: RNNs and LSTMs Never Remembered Beyond a Few Hundred Words
“We come from a world where we had recurrent neural networks and LSTMs that actually had infinite memory, although it was not very capable, right? You, the models in, in practice, they never remember more than a few hundred words or so.”