Liam Fedus, co-founder of Periodic Labs, discusses the company's commercialization strategy and business model with Elad Gil.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fedus: Physical sciences and engineering will follow machine learning scaling laws
“And I think the physical sciences, physical engineering, Will have a very similar property where we establish these scaling properties and Bring that mindset.”
Insight
Fedus: Intelligence is not scalar; AI shows extreme, non-intuitive spikiness
“I think one fallacy is thinking about intelligence as a scalar. We've consistently seen these systems have a very odd spikiness, and it's actually possible to architect a system that is world-class on some math domain, but then you could do some perturbations …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fedus: Self-improving software AI will not automatically generalize to domains like biology
“So rolling forward that software engineering self-improvement, I think you're going to have a system that can write complete repositories, identify bugs, refactor code, But it doesn't suddenly understand biology. Right? It's just like there's a domain gap ther…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fedus: Recursive self-improvement is happening in software and entering AI research
“So, In that domain, I think it's happening now-ish. And I think we'll see the same thing too for AI research. That's a slower outer loop because now the experiment isn't just checking some unit tests passing, but it's checking what was the scaling property? Di…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fedus: John Schulman steered OpenAI toward a general chatbot over narrow tools
“And we're all spitballing ideas, like writing bot coding bot. You know, very natural at the time. Some of our least interesting ideas were a meeting bot, so it would just sit in a Google Meet, take notes, and then send out, like, to-dos after. But John Schulma…”
Opinion
Fedus: AI must connect to the physical world to accelerate science
“The opinion that I and others held as periodic was, you're not going to see the same kind of acceleration in science and technology unless you start connecting these things to the physical world.”