why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Garg: Tesla could reach a $30 trillion market cap in 10 years
“It's a possibility it can become a 30 trillion dollar.”
Opinion
Mehta: Tesla open-sourcing its patents was mostly a PR stunt
“So I think, ah, open sourcing the patents was more, ultimately served more PR purpose than genuine accelerate the industry purpose.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
BYD Outgrew Tesla Because China Systematically Prioritized Domestic Firms, Says Kewalramani
“Although Tesla has a massive factory in Shanghai, but the approach is that we will support our companies, and that's why BYD today is much, much bigger than Tesla.”
What-if
Tarun Mehta: Lithium-ion would not be affordable without Tesla's cell packaging
“In the absence of it, there's no way lithium-ion prices would have become affordable because it changed the underlying economics of the industry radically. The small form factor sales were very affordable, but the small form factor sales would have never, neve…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Nariyawala: Tesla Is the Only Profitable EV Maker and Dealerships Would Destroy It
“And if you look at electric cars as an industry, no one except Tesla makes money on electric cars. And Tesla's margin is about 17%. So if Tesla was going through dealership, even they wouldn't make money.”
Opinion
Garg: All competitors, including China, lag far behind Tesla on FSD
“China is actually behind, much behind Tesla. Everyone is much, way more, way behind Tesla in terms of the real FSD.”
Opinion
Bhatia: Tesla reached a $1T valuation by having more data than competitors
“Tesla has shown that it's, you know, grown to be a trillion dollars in, in market cap because it has more data than anybody else.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Vijayan: Elon Musk asked me to return to Tesla, but I declined
“I told this to Elon as well. And I said, I told him when I met him, he said Jay, what about, you know, potentially he was kind of indicating, can you kind of come back? But when I told him it is a bit boring for me. I said, I did what you wanted me to deliver.…”
Insight
Domkundwar: Major industry innovation primarily comes from domain outsiders
“I actually think that innovation in most spaces Comes from innovators who are from outside those segments, right? And I think we've seen this happen in multiple scenarios. Most of the ad businesses were created by tech founders who are not from the media space…”
Assertion Contradicted
Garg: Half of Tesla's recent profits come from its energy business
“It is 50% of Tesla's profit actually the last few quarters have been from the energy business.”
Assertion Supported
Mayya: A nine-share investor successfully overturned Elon Musk's Tesla pay package
“There was one guy with nine shares of Tesla, just nine shares of Tesla, who went And sued Elon. And he said, this pay package is too big. And then the judges actually came and they said, yeah, the pay package is exorbitant and they canceled it.”
Assertion Supported
Vijayan's team built Tesla's core ERP system in just three months
“The first mission impossible for me was building an ERP in three months. And I took, you know, I've known in my past life and Oracle and others, ERP implementation took, even at VMware, took a year to two years. It's a massive project with hundreds of millions…”
Assertion Supported
Vijayan: Tesla built its initial scrappy internal ERP system in four months
“We didn't build the entire thing. Reality is in the four months we built the basic necessary version. It was definitely very scrappy. It was buggy, but made it work. And then from there we kept building”
Assertion Supported
Mahesh: Tesla founders focused on making the best car, not just an electric one
“When he and Martin started Tesla, they were like, listen, oil is going to be a problem. Climate change is going to be a problem. We need to move towards electric cars. And the way they thought about the world was, we don't want to make, we don't want you to bu…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Vijayan: Left VMware for Tesla taking an almost $100,000 base pay cut
“Still, I had to take a pay cut purely in a salary and bonus, because VMware had been a really solid salary and great bonus. And that really stopped almost 100,000 dollars just purely from salary cut perspective. And then on top of it, I had to leave stocks bec…”
Disclosure
Vijayan's wife lost sleep for six months after he resigned from Tesla
“My wife didn't sleep for six months when I left my job at Tesla, because how many, how much money I left, and people thought how much, you know, trust I established to deal on while it not, it was not working out that great for so many people I had in such a g…”