Former Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian argues why major investment banks and consulting firms underestimate India's long-term GDP.
Assertion Contradicted
India's socialist policies collapsed GDP per capita from $2,730 to $300
“Because of the socialist policies that we pursued from then on till 1991, when we liberalized and there is an important lesson actually, that's why I'm explaining this. We reduced our GDP per capita from 2730 to 300 dollars.”
Opinion
Subramanian: An 8% growth target for India is achievable
“That is why, you know, I actually have set out as the ambitious target of Eight percent growth. It is achievable, but it is ambitious because I want to keep that stretch goal, having understand, having, you know, understood the power of compounding to actually…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2047
Rupee will depreciate just 0.5% annually if India grows at 8%
“Having done that, I actually have assessed that if India grows at eight percent, the rupee will actually depreciate by about half a percent per annum.”
Assertion Supported
Subramanian: India's abject poverty fell from 12.2% to 2.2% over a decade
“Poverty, for instance, which is, let's say very, very abject poverty, you know, that has decreased from 12.2% in 2012 to 2.2% in, you know, in, in in, in 2022, 22.”
Assertion Contradicted
Intermediaries capture 90% of value from Indian farmers under APMC rules
“Because of this phenomenon of hundred rupees of value added, let's say in, you know, in farm produce, 90 rupees is cornered by the intermediary. The farmer, small farmer gets only 10 rupees.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
India's per capita GDP will reach $40,000 by 2047 at 8% growth
“If we grow at eight percent, our GDP per capita would be close to about 40,000 dollars in two, 20, 47. If we grow, so, so if we grow at seven percent, we'll be close to 30,000 dollars, GDP per capita.”