Former Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India Dr. Krishnamurthy Subramanian details his mathematical model predicting India's GDP trajectory toward 2047.
Assertion Contradicted
India's socialist policies collapsed GDP per capita from $2,730 to $300
“Because of the socialist policies that we pursued from then on till 1991, when we liberalized and there is an important lesson actually, that's why I'm explaining this. We reduced our GDP per capita from 2730 to 300 dollars.”
Opinion
Subramanian: An 8% growth target for India is achievable
“That is why, you know, I actually have set out as the ambitious target of Eight percent growth. It is achievable, but it is ambitious because I want to keep that stretch goal, having understand, having, you know, understood the power of compounding to actually…”
Opinion
EY and Goldman Sachs models ignore India's inflation targeting regime
“What the Ernst and Young and the Goldman Sachs predictions do not take into account is this importance of The inflation targeting regime, the change in inflation, a very important macroeconomic phenomenon that has to be taken into account. They just extrapolat…”
Assertion Supported
Subramanian: India's abject poverty fell from 12.2% to 2.2% over a decade
“Poverty, for instance, which is, let's say very, very abject poverty, you know, that has decreased from 12.2% in 2012 to 2.2% in, you know, in, in in, in 2022, 22.”
Assertion Contradicted
Intermediaries capture 90% of value from Indian farmers under APMC rules
“Because of this phenomenon of hundred rupees of value added, let's say in, you know, in farm produce, 90 rupees is cornered by the intermediary. The farmer, small farmer gets only 10 rupees.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
India's per capita GDP will reach $40,000 by 2047 at 8% growth
“If we grow at eight percent, our GDP per capita would be close to about 40,000 dollars in two, 20, 47. If we grow, so, so if we grow at seven percent, we'll be close to 30,000 dollars, GDP per capita.”