Insight
Exact cash-flow precision is unnecessary if debt-burden margins are safe
“You are really not worried or, you know, it's not that important to exactly pinpoint with Six Sigma accuracy on what is this cash flow? Is it 25,000 or 26,330 thousand rupees? You know, it doesn't matter. You have to be in the ballpark because then you have en…”
Insight
Borrowers prioritize repaying home loans over consumer goods in downturns
“Anybody who takes a loan has an intention to repay the loan. That intention stays good as long as the times are good. But everybody goes through good and bad times. I think when the times are bad, the same person behaves very differently for different products…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Krishnan: Fintechs focus on large cities and will take long to penetrate deeper
“I think fintechs are more focusing on larger cities and tiers and still take a lot of time to penetrate deeper.”
Insight
Lenders only realize their profit in the final EMIs of a loan
“The lender makes his monies only in the last few EMIs. If you have, let's say, a 60 month loan, the first 55 months, if he repays well, you don't make monies. You know, you're getting your principal back, you're, you know, repaying your borrowed monies, you're…”
Insight
Being a startup founder is overly glamorized due to survivorship bias
“I honestly believe that at some level today there is being a founder is too glamorous. I'm not sure if it's good for all. It's good for some, but we see more success stories than multiple failure stories.”
Insight
Preparing for an IPO takes two years, not six months
“You know, one of the common questions that get asked in an IPO is how much time does it take to do an IPO? And the most common answer that you might hear is that it takes anywhere between six to nine months. I think the answer is wrong. It really depends on wh…”
Insight
First institutional investors are for business validation, not valuation
“The first investor, you are bringing him not for valuation, right? You know, you are bringing him for validation of your business model.”
Assertion Supported
Five Star Business Finance expanded loan book 50x to ₹6,200 crore
“Between 2015 and 2022 we grew by about 50 x so you spoke of three x when we started but we actually grew by about 50 x we had a 130 book 130 crores book in 2015 and you know we just ended with about 6200 crores of book as of december”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Indian commercial banks still largely cater only to the top 20%
“The market is large because I think in India, you know, banks still cater to, I would say, largely the top 20% for various reasons. It could be the diverse geography. It could be the unorganized nature or the spread of people that were there, or it could be th…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Krishnan: Most Five Star branches break even in under nine months
“Because of being asset light, because of being very, very close to the ground, most of our branches break even in less than six to nine months.”
Disclosure
Five Star enforces a target-free 24-month learning period in new states
“I think when we put up a branch in any new state, we will at least wait for 24 months. The first 24 months is a learning period for us. No targets.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Indian NBFC sector will consolidate from 10,000 entities to 2,000
“But I think the way the regulations will evolve over a period of time, you may not have 10,000, you may have 2000 NBFCs, but pretty much serious in trying to penetrate and create an issue of what they want to do.”
Assertion Supported
Five Star Finance went public at slightly under $2B valuation
“So we did an IPO. So in November we went out with an IPO. So that was roughly a valuation of a little less than about two billion dollars.”
Assertion Partly supported
Five Star Finance's valuation gained 25% post-IPO to over $2B
“We price instead of about 25% post the IPO. So we are well over two billion dollars at this point of time.”
Insight
Krishnan: Building investor consensus is the hardest phase of an IPO
“The last part, which in my mind, I would like to call it as consensus building, is the toughest part in an IPO. Because unlike a private round, in a private round, two parties decide on how good is the business model? What's the valuation? What is it that you …”
Assertion Supported
Matrix Partners held all their 2014 shares until Five Star's IPO
“We had our first round in 2014. With Matrix. That was just a three million dollar round, and you'll be surprised to know that till the IPO, Matrix has not sold a single share. So, they sort of continued to hold to all the shares that they did in 2014, 15.”
Assertion Partly supported
Five Star has been profitable every year since 2005-2006
“Right from two those and five, two those and six onwards, we have never been loss making every year, whatever, you know, we have invested, we have not been dividend paying. So that has got completely reinvested into the company.”
Assertion Supported
Five Star Business Finance is India's oldest unicorn at 38
“We are the oldest unicorn in the country, right? I don't know what is the youngest unicorn and oldest unicorn. We are a 38 year old unicorn.”
Assertion Supported
Krishnan: RBI no longer grants deposit-taking licenses to new NBFCs
“Pretty much now if you see any new licenses that RBI grants, it's never for a deposit taking license. So most of the people who still hold a deposit taking license are all older NBFCs which got it at the earlier regime.”
Disclosure
Five Star Finance has 270,000 live customers, evaluated over 500,000 files
“We have, you know, two lakh 70,000 live customers. You know, there are customers who would have closed the loan. There are customers who would have evaluated and rejected. I think we'd have evaluated well over 500,000 files so far.”
Assertion Supported
Krishnan: About 93% of Five Star's loan book remains in South India
“Even today, I would say about 93% of our book is in Southern part of India, but we started expanding slowly into the central Indian geographies.”
Insight
Krishnan: Lending companies cannot simply walk away and close underperforming branches
“So, unfortunately, in lending, you can't close the branch because you have lent monies, right? You may stop doing new business. But if it's a mess, you don't have the choice of walking over, right? You have to make sure that you are cleaning the mess.”
Assertion Partly supported
Krishnan: India has at least 10,000 registered NBFCs
“10,000 at least.”
Assertion Partly supported
Krishnan: RBI cancelled 3,000 to 4,000 NBFC licenses in recent years
“The 10,000 number that I told you must have been about 13,000 plus three, four years back. So, there are consciously, 3004 thousand NBFC's license which have got cancelled over a period of time.”