Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lahiri: India has reached economic takeoff and will emerge like 2000s China
“No, but there's reasonable grounds to believe.
that we are in the, we have reached the takeoff stage.
It's like China.
So China, Deng Xiaoping came in in 1979.
Till 1991, nineties, mid nineties, Tiananmen Square, there were doubts.
But it was a silent revoluti…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lahiri: UPA Government Overstimulated Economy, Leading to High Inflation
“We know that the UPA government went overboard in terms of stimulus. So what happened during the last few years, high inflation and problems in the, some incipient problems in the balance of payments.”
Opinion
Lahiri: NDA Government Eliminated Policy Paralysis and Prioritized Infrastructure
“Now, 2014 onwards, this government has definitely put more emphasis on infrastructure. And the policy paralysis is gone.”
Insight
Lahiri: Democracy Is Problematic for India, but Alternatives Are Worse
“Democracy, I think, is very bad for India, but any other system is even worse. And I'm a great believer that what we are doing is right.”
Assertion Supported
Lahiri: India's Top Marginal Income Tax Rate Hit 97.75% in the 1970s
“During Mrs. Gandhi's time, Indira Gandhi's time in the seventies. Yeah. She was finance minister for a short while, then YB Chauhan came. At that time, the highest rate of income tax was 97.75%.”
Opinion
Lahiri: Bangladesh's Turmoil Is a Reaction to Compromised Democracy
“So Bangladesh, what has happened is that democracy was slightly compromised, and it's a reaction to it.”
Opinion
Lahiri: Neglecting Primary Education For Higher Ed Was A Mistake
“Our ancestors did set up the IITs and the IIMs, and that is what you see reflected in the IT revolution in India. But did we give enough attention to primary education and secondary education? Perhaps not. That was a mistake.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2047
Lahiri: 7% annual growth pushes per capita GDP over $10k by 2047
“So, seven percent growth day in and day out every year will take you to over 10,000 by 2047.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lahiri: India has resolved its basic school enrollment problem
“Initially, the problem was enrollment. How to get those little ones into school? That problem has been resolved. That problem has been resolved because now you talk to any poor person and ask them, how much have you studied? They'll say, six . What about your …”
Insight
Lahiri: Improving education quality is India's next, much harder challenge
“But now we have come to the Second stage of the problem. That is quality of education. That's much harder.”
Assertion Supported
Lahiri: Freight Equalization Stripped Eastern India of Its Resource Advantage
“And then there was the freight equalization, whereby the whole eastern region, the mines, the minerals and metals were available all over the country at the same price. So the eastern region lost its advantage.”
Assertion Supported
Lahiri: India's tax exemption threshold is unusually high given per capita income
“Even in terms of per capita income, you compare our exemption level with our per capita income. And compare the exemption level of other countries with their per capita level. Ours is much higher.”
Insight
Lahiri: Integrating into supply chains requires lower taxes on imported inputs
“Because if you want to be integrated in the supply chain, it's, you need to give
More concessional treatment or low taxes on inputs that will be brought in because that is what is going to go out again.”
What-if
Lahiri: India Fragmenting Post-Independence Would Have Caused Disastrous Conflicts
“So, I think the advantage that we have with the current arrangement is that we have the advantage of being a small country together with the advantage of being a big country. So, the counterfactual would have been disastrous, and there would have been conflict…”
Assertion Partly supported
Lahiri: India's Post-Independence Decade Outgrew Prior 300-400 Years
“And mind you, we did not grow fast enough, but still, I think in the first 10 years of independence, we grew more than what we grew in three, 400 years of British, of previous to that.”
Assertion Supported
Lahiri: India's Rail Network Led China At Independence But Lags Today
“And the railways were much more developed railways than China at the time of independence. Look at Chinese railways now and our railways, we are far behind.”
Assertion Supported
Lahiri: India Moves More Freight By Road Despite Cheaper Rail Costs
“I mean, rail freight, rail is the cheapest form of communication and sending goods, not roads, but road traffic is Road transport has a larger share of our freight traffic than railways.”
Insight
Lahiri: Returning Home After Working Abroad Is Harder Than Leaving
“And if you ask anyone who is going abroad, you'll find they will say, I'm going there, then I'll come back. Going abroad is difficult, but coming back is even more difficult.”
Ashok K. Lahiri