The Exchanges

Q like it was the first time in India history that trucker was sleeping for eight hours, getting decent food on the road and well taken care of. Right. During Revigo time. So I think it was, it was hailed as a massive Change, right? So Deepak, if you have to think about the Revigo journey, what went right? What went wrong? I would love to hear your thoughts on it.

A Uh, so thank you again for having me here. Um, you know, I have reflected a lot on Revigo over the last Many years. I think the idea itself, a relay as an idea, it was the first time, you know, anyone attempted that in India. Of course, it has, it is now being attempted in Europe and many other places, but in India, it was the first time it was attempted. A lot of, there were a lot of naysayers. There's still a lot of naysayers. I believe in the idea. I believe it's a, it's a solid idea. Uh, it needs certain ecosystem conditions to work well, right? And India is getting there. Uh, I think we were a little too early. Uh, the market was not there. I think, uh, in the first few years, we saw a lot of success because e-commerce was still building up and was shipping goods through air cargo mode. We brought them on road, built a solid network for them, and through that, our unit economics was also working hard. But the moment we started to go into traditional sectors, We realized that, uh, you know, we are, I think the economics of the model, uh, was not as great as it was in the express segment. So I would, I often say when I meet entrepreneurs, I, I think look at the market size with a little bit of skepticism. And typically in India, what I've seen is the market size is smaller than what you think it is. Right? So that was one One thing. I think we grew very fast. So we outgrew t…

AI assessment note: “we saw a lot of success because e-commerce was still building up”

Q So you are saying there's a probability that dollar would fall to, like, 30, 40 rupees?

A No, I am not, no, no, no, I am, no, I am not saying that. So there are two different things. Dollar is a reserve currency and dollar is a dominant system, correct? I am only saying that dollar as a reserve currency will be, ah, not there in a, in a couple of years, right? Uh, in my, if I, if you ask me, I also like to predict like exact, just for fun sake, right, exact years or whatever, I, I said this by 2034, we'll not have a dollar as a reserve. We may not have Fed, by the way, in 2034. Now many people get, how far is it possible? We've, we've seen the world only through the eyes of a central bank, you know, Fed, right? But we may not have Fed, we may not have dollar as a reserve. Uh, this thing, the dollar may still be Very dominant, right? If you look at pound was the major global Reserve or the currency, right, before World War II, but it took, it took then many decades for the pound to, now it's still, I don't know how much part of global trade it is, maybe a couple of percent or something, even lower than that. Dollar is today still more than 50%. At peak, I think it was 80%, now 60% or something. I have, I don't have exact numbers, but it may continue to fall. As a, as a, as its share of the global trade. But, it may still be reasonably dominant as a, as a currency. So, I'm not right now commenting about whether it will depreciate or depreciate. Of course, I mean, if t…

AI assessment note: “No, I am not saying that. So there are two different things.”

Q So, so if you have to summarize what is happening globally right now, how would you do that?

A Yeah, so look, I started writing about this whole situation actually couple of years ago when I was not even thinking this deeply, right? And, um, but I was always thinking about cycles. I've been thinking of cycles for the last 1012, 15 years, right? And I had said, look, uh, uh, there's this The history of the world guides us to a point where the ruling civilization, you know, loses its power or empire, falls. There is a fourth turning, and it falls, and it gives way to a new, new empire, right? It has happened historically Many times over from Greeks to Roman, then Roman to, you know, so many other European powers, uh, Spanish and Dutch and, uh, uh, you know, uh, UK, and then it went to America, and then there is a power shift. There is a regime shift. There is an empire shift on the horizon. Uh, and if you look at those, you know, empires and the eras, typically there is a 90 year cycle in the two 50 year cycle, when in those 90 years, a similar pattern follows. It's also called the great debt cycle. Radially calls it a great debt cycle, where the debt actually continues to kind of go up for the, for the 20 years. And it's a very similar Ah, philosophy. The, the ruling empire or the world, ah, The regime, uh, they run current, they, they run trade deficits, uh, rake up a lot of debt. There's a lot of good, uh, uh, there's a lot of consumption which happens in that particula…

AI assessment note: “There is a power shift. There is a regime shift. There is an empire shift”

Q can say, World War, the Vietnam War started in the 19 sixties until 1974 was just a war against communism. That US never wanted communism in Southeast Asia, right? And then each war after it, like, US didn't want it. Either, you know, some reason, dictatorship. So if, if that happens, China becomes, uh, the dominant player in the world. Wouldn't you say the world will be a communist world?

A Look, I haven't, to be honest, reflected on that angle, how the political narrative across the world will change, but A dominant economy and a dominant political system is a different thing, right? Uh, it could also be a multipolar world. But US wants to give away its reserve, dollar, US wants to give dollar, give away the reserve status of dollar, and move into a direction where it wants to be a surplus economy. Uh, now, It basically, what is it trying to do? US has studied history. Everyone has studied history. Everyone knows the fall of empires. Yeah. Everyone knows how they fall. So US is trying to avoid that shock, that fall. So they want to take those corrective actions now to balance and all of that. But if you go by history, it doesn't happen that way. So the fall will happen. You know, this transition may happen. It can, it can be a multipolar world. It can be China, but energy is going to play a very, very important role, right? Whoever will have energy will be the big winner, right? Because AI is all power to energy. Yeah. And if you see, see historically demographics have played a very big role in terms of, you know, whoever has had the best demographics has You know, played a big role in the, in the, in becoming a dominant economic or a military power, right? But now if you have AI robots and, you know, physical, then the, the, the limbs don't matter anymore, right…

AI assessment note: “I haven't, to be honest, reflected on that angle, how the political narrative”