why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
MongoDB lost $1 billion before becoming profitable, now earns $300M yearly
“I mean, Mongo, between being a private and public company, raised and lost a billion dollars before they had a profitable quarter. And now already make three hundred million dollars a year in profits.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2033
MongoDB will reach a $50 billion valuation within 10 years
“So that's why it's so valuable is because it's an, it's just an incredible company growing quickly, enormous market share, and is going to grow for the next 10 years. It'll be a fifty billion dollar company.”
Assertion Supported
DoubleClick expanded to 25 countries before operations became profitable anywhere
“So double case, the perfect example, we expanded to 25 countries before our first country was profitable.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Business Insider reached 300 million unique visitors with zero ad spend
“What I'm proudest of is that Business Insider is at three hundred million uniques today and never spent one dollar in advertising.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Short-term AI utility is mundane workflow optimization, not true standalone companies
“The real use of AI in the short term is going to be much more mundane. It's optimizing customer support, you know, making your coding more efficient, things like that. We're a long ways before, you know, true AI companies are coming”
Assertion Contradicted
The Wall Street Journal did not update its website intraday in 2007
“The Wall Street Journal and Businessweek at the time did not, basically did not update their websites during the day.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rising labor costs will drive inevitable business automation
“The cost of labor is going to just keep going up. And so, you know, waiters were paid 15 dollars an hour. Now it's 20 to 25 dollars an hour in New York. Unless we change immigration or something fundamentally changes, that could be 30 dollars an hour. So you k…”
Assertion Supported
Business Insider sold to Axel Springer for 11x its $40 million revenue
“We were doing forty million at the time. We sold it for 11 times revenues, which is a big, big number for immediate properties.”
Assertion Partly supported
DoubleClick cut staff as 70% of clients went bankrupt in dot-com crash
“Then we spent three years bringing back to a thousand people as the internet collapsed and 70% of our clients went bankrupt.”
Assertion Supported
Gilt Groupe sold for $250 million
“We sold for two hundred fifty million, which was less than we thought, but it's Still obviously a, you know, a real number.”
Assertion Partly supported
Kevin Ryan is the leading funder of Yale's psychedelic research center
“I'm the leading funder of the Yale Center for Psychedelic Research.”
Assertion Supported
Transcend Therapeutics secured a patent for mental health compound methylone
“If you follow this industry, you know that you can't patent MDMA or mushrooms because those have been around for a long time, but we actually did get a patent for methylone, which is the compound that we're working on.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
MongoDB generated zero revenue during its first three years
“For three years, we had zero revenue.”
Assertion Supported
MongoDB is approaching a $2 billion revenue run rate
“Then finally, Sequoia came in and then we raised a lot of money and now it does getting close to a two billion dollar run rate.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2033
The assisted fertility sector will continue growing over the next 10 years
“That's going to grow for the next 10 years for all the reasons we know about people having children later, sperm counts are down, a bunch of things.”