The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 32 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Pompliano: Bitcoin will protect corporate purchasing power better than cash over 10-20 years
“I think it is riskier for a company to sit with five hundred million dollars in US dollar cash on their balance sheet than five hundred million dollars worth of Bitcoin. And the reason being that or maybe the one clarifier is if you have a long-term oriented p…”
Pompliano: Bitcoin price will probably rise as halving cuts supply amid ETF demand
“The Bitcoin halving is coming, and that's just when the daily incoming supply, the number of Bitcoin that get created each day, is gonna get cut in half, from 900 Bitcoin to 450.
So like, I always joke, if you went to Economics one-on-one class, supply and de…”
Pompliano: Autonomous driving will make road line-striping businesses exponentially more valuable
“These like line striping or line painting businesses are going to be exponentially more valuable in the future because as self-driving becomes prevalent on the road, governments are going to mandate that the roads are painted more often so that the cars from a…”
Pompliano: Manufacturing certain drugs in space may be cheaper than on Earth
“And then the second thing is if they're able to do this correctly, it actually may be cheaper to do some of this in space than it is on earth.”
Pompliano: Solana will outperform Bitcoin and Ethereum this bull market
“I think Solana is going to go up a lot.
It's going to go up a lot more than Bitcoin.
I think it's going to go up a lot more than Ethereum in this specific bull market.
Cause it's a smaller market cap.
There's a lot of energy and excitement around it and all th…”
Pompliano: Sold 100% of his Ethereum to buy Solana around $65
“Instead, what I did is I bought a little bit of Solana at 48 dollars.
It started to go up a little bit more.
And usually when that happens, people are like, oh, cool.
I was right.
Instead, I doubled the bet at 55.
Like the position is going in your favor.
And …”
Pompliano: Andrew Tate's viral content tactics became standard marketing playbooks
“If you look at his tactics, they have pretty much become standard in a lot of people's like marketing today. And so people kind of like saw this guy be successful on the internet, get a message out. And now you have a bunch of companies and individuals that ar…”
Pompliano: Kim Kardashian will become US President one day
“I think she's going to be president of the United States one day.”
Pompliano: Startups will use computer vision to automate municipal fine enforcement
“So I think there's going to be an entire rise of businesses that just use computer vision to do the same thing. Like anything that can be automated will be automated rather than have humans with their lazy eyes walking around, just have computers that constant…”
Pompliano: Shareholders will revolt against public companies holding massive cash reserves
“My expectation is actually that shareholders at some point will start turning on some of these public companies that have tons of cash and saying like, Hey, if we're sitting there with, you know, Warren Buffett sitting with a hundred billion dollars of cash, l…”
Pompliano: Joining OpenAI or Anduril offers 2x to 5x upside, not 10x
“OpenAI and Anduril, I think, are both at this point where if you go and you join, like, you may be able to make a couple 100,000 dollars a year, and, like, there's probably some upside, but OpenAI at, like, eighty-five billion dollars, basically, you have to b…”
Pompliano sold all of his Facebook equity compensation to buy Bitcoin
“Well, I sold it. And bought Bitcoin.”
Pompliano: Big tech resume cachet fades after the first 500 employees
“Working at a place like Facebook, unless you're one of the first maybe, like, two to 500 employees it kind of just is like, all right, you're, like, kind of legit. You know, you worked at a place that has some sort of high bar. But now there's 80,000 people th…”
Pompliano: Varda manufactures drugs in zero gravity and returns them to Earth
“And so what Varda does is they've created a space manufacturing facilities. They launched them up into space. They're right now manufacturing drugs in zero gravity. And then they're bringing it back to earth.”
Pompliano: Crypto exits should be timed by market cycle, not valuation
“My theory in crypto now is selling is less to do with price levels.
Like in the public markets, people will hold a stock and they're like, okay, if this ever gets overvalued, I'm selling, I'm trimming the position.
In crypto, it's much more cyclical.
And so I …”
Pomp: The viral skills for a sex tape win modern presidencies
“Actually the same thing that makes the sex tape go viral gets you elected to be president today. So like in some ways it's actually the exact same skillset, just, you know, packaged up in a different way and with different ambitions or aspirations.”
Pompliano: Top content creators post spontaneously rather than using structured marketing calendars
“Whether it's Twitter, whether it's podcasts, whatever, the people who tend to be good at it, don't think of it and like sit down and like create a marketing calendar. Like, I dunno, they're like taking a poop and they pull out their phone and they start tweeti…”
Pompliano: David Tepper's personal taxes funded 3% of New Jersey's budget
“He was in New Jersey and he was responsible for three percent of the state's budget and the taxes he personally paid. And he moved to Florida.”
Pompliano: MicroStrategy owns over 210,000 Bitcoin, exceeding 1% of total supply
“And he went from owning zero Bitcoin in July of 2020 to today he has more than 210,000 Bitcoin, which is more than one percent of the Bitcoin network.”
Pompliano: Startup resume cachet follows financial success, never the reverse
“They should be like, 10 x economic opportunities, and then 10 x reputation. It never works the other way. Like, there's no company that there's a 10 x reputation opportunity first, and then there's a 10 x economic opportunity. Like, the economics have to be ca…”
Pompliano: Eight Sleep operates with 85 employees and is profitable
“They have only like a 80 or 85 employees. I believe that they've publicly said that the company's been profitable and they're selling a hardware product plus all of the software.”
Pompliano: Bill Miller was Amazon's largest outside shareholder at around 15%
“And I think at one point he was the single largest outside shareholder of Amazon and owned like 15%.”
Pompliano: Wall Street refused a $1M bet against Bitcoin over 10 years
“We issued a million dollar bet to anyone on Wall Street. And we were like, we'll take Bitcoin. You take any other asset, like just pick anything over the next 10 years. If you beat us, like you get a million bucks. If Bitcoin outperforms, we get a million buck…”
Pompliano: Warren Buffett was the original finance influencer and master marketer
“Warren Buffett was the original finance influencer, right? And I, I've joked a million times that if he was today, Buffett in his thirties, he'd have a sub stack, a Twitter account, a podcast. He'd be streaming on TikTok, like doing all this stuff.”
Pompliano: Founders do a disservice by meddling after six months
“After the first, I don't know, six months, like, the company works or it doesn't. And if it works, then actually I'm probably doing the company a disservice if I'm, like, still meddling in the day-to-day, like, decision-making and leadership of the business.”
Pompliano: Buying $5M-$10M companies is lower risk than building
“I think where it's harder is like, Hey, the business is worth like ten million dollars or five million dollars. And you're like, that's like two years of progress. Versus not spending the money up front and like, maybe you get there. That's where I probably le…”
Pompliano: Over $10B flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs in two months
“There's over ten billion dollars that have flowed into these assets.”
Pompliano: MicroStrategy was first non-crypto public company converting balance sheet to Bitcoin
“And so he was the first public company that wasn't like a crypto miner or something like that to go and say, I'm going to put like 85% of my balance sheet into Bitcoin.”
Pompliano: Mark Yusko provided early seed capital for Tiger Global
“Julian was like, hey, this kid, Chase Coleman, who now runs Tiger Global, he's leaving. I'm gonna give him some money. And he sent him down to go talk to Mark and Mark gave like the sixth and seventh million dollar to Chase Coleman to start Tiger Global.”
Pompliano: Julian Robertson spent an hour interrogating him on Bitcoin
“He sat with us for an hour and just kept berating me with questions and just trying to actually understand Bitcoin and blockchain technology and all these things.”