why aren't all 20 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2027
Holiday: Shopify will become the biggest company in the world
“This is why I think Shopify is gonna be, like, the biggest company in the world, because they, like, let people do that.”
Opinion
DHH: Tech companies now reserve upside for VCs unlike Shopify's IPO
“Shopify didn't do as so many other companies do now, which is essentially reserve all the upside to insiders and their VCs, and then go public when it's already kind of plateaued, right? Like, from where they were to where they are now, an amazing ride for the…”
Opinion
Brian Halligan says the era of giant enterprise sales forces is over
“With ye olde giant outside sales forces it just feels like the time has passed to build that kind of thing, and I've predicted that before and been wrong. But it feels like there's a new breed of company that sells in a new way, and they start with small busin…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sam Parr: Shopify CEO Tobi Lütke logged 15 years of keystrokes and screenshots
“He goes, I created this program that looks at every single letter I've ever typed on my keyboard. And then every 10 minutes it automatically takes a picture Of my screen, and there's a screenshot, and I have an archive now of roughly 15 years of every single l…”
Insight
Walling: Platform-dependent SaaS businesses fetch lower exit multiples
“Like, if you go to sell a SaaS company and you're solely built on top of a platform, you sell for a lower multiple than if you were on your own.”
Opinion
Puri: OpenStore's model is one of the fastest paths to $1B
“I think that this model, this open store model is one of the fastest Easiest and fastest ways to build a billion dollar company.”
Insight
DHH: Startup business wisdom breaks down at enterprise scale like physics
“Wisdom is very contextual. This is all the way back to Newton and Einstein and the theory of relativity. When you go fast enough, like all the neat physics rules that are really helpful for calculating the apple dropping on your head, they just start breaking …”
Insight
Beehiiv Did for Newsletters What Shopify Did for E-Commerce
“I think beehive did for newsletters, What Shopify did for e-commerce, right?”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Puri: Tim Ferriss made most of his wealth from early Uber and Shopify investments
“How does he get into that deal? Because he's Tim Ferris, because that's what, who people want to rope into things. And so, you know, Getting into Shopify and at Uber early on is how you made all the money.”
Assertion Partly supported
Wilkinson: Pixel Union started for $20K and went public for $260M
“So basically started it for 20 K, sold it for about seven million. And then I ended up buying it back from the guys who bought it for twenty five million. And then about a year later, we took a public for two hundred and sixty million.”
Insight
Wilkinson: Target unsaturated ecosystems like Discord over Shopify
“Now I think Shopify is hard because you're late, you know, the marketplace already exists. It takes a lot of time to get approved. You know, that might not be the place to go where you might want to look is like discord or add a par or any kind of software eco…”
Disclosure
Mares acquired Shopify app FOMO for under $400K at $14K MRR
“A partner and I bought a Shopify app called FOMO. It was doing 14 K a month at the time we bought it. You know, we bought it. We paid less than 400.”
Opinion
Rydhan: Making NFT creation as easy as Shopify is a huge opportunity
“I believe that's like one of the biggest opportunities in NFTs is just like make, make it really easy for people to do it almost as easy as creating a Shopify store.”
Assertion Supported
DHH: Shopify is the largest Ruby on Rails organization in the world
“Shopify is the biggest Ruby and Rails shop in the world.”
Assertion Supported
Puri: HexClad has nearly doubled annually since landing Costco in 2017
“2017, they get a deal with Costco, and the business has doubled almost every year since 2017. They're one of the top Shopify sellers in the world.”
Disclosure
Colin and Samir Rely on Samsung, Shopify, and Jellysmack for Revenue
“And I would say, too, like, we're primarily supported with advertising, advertising-based business. Our biggest clients are Samsung, Shopify, Jelly Smack and other creator economy companies.”
Disclosure
Noah Kagan actively invests in public software companies that AppSumo utilizes internally
“So when we were building Shopify apps five years ago, I was like, I don't know if our Shopify apps are going to work, but I'll put 10,000 dollars in Shopify stock when it just started. So if our apps suck, I think the Shopify thing will probably work. And that…”
Assertion Supported
WeCommerce generates $30M annually from Shopify apps at a $600M valuation
“And it currently, it's in, it's public on the Canadian Stock Exchange right now, probably for a six hundred million dollar market cap. It's called WeCommerce. And they do like, I think, thirty million dollars a year in revenue just off Shopify apps.”
Assertion Supported
Parr: Andrew Wilkinson's Shopify plugin rollup has a ~$600M market cap
“Our friend Andrew has a business where all he does is buy, buys Shopify plugins and it's market cap. It's a publicly traded company is like in the six hundred million dollar range. It's on the Canadian stock exchange.”
Disclosure
Wilkinson: Tiny acquired Shopify app Stamp in a $110M structured deal
“In our public company, we bought a company called stamp, which is one of the top ratings and reviews apps on Shopify. We just closed that deal. There's a hundred and 110, I believe total. It gets paid out. It's a structure.”