why aren't all 23 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Saylor: Companies should convert cash, debt, and equity into Bitcoin
“So the big idea here is you want to fix any company, sweep all the cash flows into Bitcoin, convert the treasury into Bitcoin. Borrow against your future cash flows in dollars. Convert that into Bitcoin. Finance all your fixed assets in dollars. Convert that i…”
Disclosure
Saylor: MicroStrategy's Two Strategies Are Selling Software and Holding Bitcoin
“The business has two strategies, and the first strategy is we sell business intelligence software to our customers, and the second strategy is we acquire and hold Bitcoin. That is the business.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2041
Saylor: MicroStrategy's Bitcoin will generate more value than software operations over 20 years
“The investment income for sure.”
Opinion
MicroStrategy's debt-fueled Bitcoin acquisition strategy is not a risk-free free lunch.
“There is no strategy that is risk-free. There is no free lunch. And I think that right now, the entire narrative is about how this is a free lunch, how this is a free money glitch, and I don't believe that.”
Opinion
Michael Saylor intentionally detached MicroStrategy from its software fundamentals into a meme.
“So he's basically created, he's
Intentionally turned him, turned MicroStrategy into a meme stock.
Meaning, he's detached it from the underlying business in the way that GameStop did.”
Assertion Supported
MicroStrategy holds nearly 400,000 Bitcoin and has outperformed the entire S&P 500.
“They've basically acquired almost 400,000 Bitcoin.
they've outperformed every company in the S&P 500.
And last week alone, it saw one hundred and thirty six billion dollars of trading volume.”
Disclosure
Sam Parr refuses to invest personal funds in MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy.
“I wouldn't, I, with my own money, I wouldn't touch any of this. Yeah. Yeah. That's what I would say right now. I have no proof other than it just, it doesn't feel good.”
Disclosure
Saylor: MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Cost Basis Is $24,000 With Permanent Capital
“Well, we have permanent capital, so it doesn't make a difference to us, right?
Like right now, for example, we have a three billion dollar investment gain.
So if you cut Bitcoin in half, we would still have an investment gain, right?
I mean, our basis is 24,00…”
Disclosure
Saylor: MicroStrategy bought $2.2B in Bitcoin and holds over $5B
“No we bought 2.2000000000 worth of Bitcoin. We own about five, a bit more than five billion, depending upon the day.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Saylor: MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Strategy Greatly Improved Recruiting and Retention
“It's been great for retention, and it's been great for recruiting.
We can get, we get people, first of all, the company's brand has been amped up by a factor of a thousand.
I mean, a lot more people know us now.”
Assertion Supported
Saylor: MicroStrategy Issued $1B Convertible Offering at 0% Interest
“And then we did a billion dollar debt offering. And we did that billion dollar convert offering at zero percent interest.”
Assertion Supported
Shaan Puri: MicroStrategy holds $5B in Bitcoin against a $7B market cap
“They own five billion dollars of Bitcoin. The company's worth seven billion dollars”
Assertion Partly supported
MicroStrategy’s core software business is declining 10% annually and is functionally irrelevant.
“The actual software business is declining 10% a year, and is something like a couple hundred million in revenue and under a hundred million of net income. So it is a rounding error. It is not, it is no longer relevant to the stock price.”
Assertion Supported
MicroStrategy trades at a massive 2.5x multiple of its underlying Bitcoin NAV.
“MicroStrategy stock, which today trades at like a two and a half times
Multiple of NAV.
You know, NAV is the net asset values, like the underlying asset that it holds, right?
It owns thirty-three billion dollars of Bitcoin.
So the question is, why is it an eig…”
Assertion Supported
MicroStrategy stock surged 2,600% over five years, vastly outperforming Nvidia.
“And it is, so it's up in the last five years by 2600%. Okay, so it's shot up. It's if you compare it to even Nvidia stock this year, it's outperformed Nvidia, which is pretty insane.”
Assertion Supported
Puri: MicroStrategy holds $15B in Bitcoin, up 97% on $7.3B invested
“So he currently has 14.96 billion Dollars of Bitcoin in MicroStrategy, and it's up 97% all time. So he's put in 7.3 billion, and now it's sitting on fifteen billion of assets.”
Assertion Supported
Pompliano: MicroStrategy owns over 210,000 Bitcoin, exceeding 1% of total supply
“And he went from owning zero Bitcoin in July of 2020 to today he has more than 210,000 Bitcoin, which is more than one percent of the Bitcoin network.”
Assertion Supported
Saylor: MicroStrategy's 2,000-person core software business generates $75M annually
“Well, all 2000 people doing a 100,000 things right perfectly for the entire year competing against Microsoft that has more money than God, they can generate seventy five million a year.”
Disclosure
Saylor: MicroStrategy offered $250M Dutch auction buyback before buying Bitcoin
“So we offered to buy back two hundred fifty million dollars worth of the stock in this Dutch auction. So if you disagree with the decision to buy Bitcoin, you can sell the stock back at a profit. Our stock was one 20. We offered to buy the stock back at up to …”
Assertion Supported
Saylor: MicroStrategy Raised $650M in Convertible Debt at 75 bps
“Then we did a convertible debt offering for six hundred fifty million dollars of debt at 75 basis points.”
Assertion Supported
MicroStrategy currently owns approximately 1% of the entire global Bitcoin float.
“He owns about one percent of the Bitcoin float today, and he's trying to get, you know, two percent, basically.”
Assertion Supported
Puri: MicroStrategy's stock remained flat from 2007 to 2020
“The stock was basically flat from 2007 to 20 20 before he started making his bet. And that's a long time, right? That's 2007 to 20 20. That's a 13 year period.”
Assertion Supported
Pompliano: MicroStrategy was first non-crypto public company converting balance sheet to Bitcoin
“And so he was the first public company that wasn't like a crypto miner or something like that to go and say, I'm going to put like 85% of my balance sheet into Bitcoin.”