The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Adcock: The biggest company in 10-15 years will make AI humanoids
“So here at figure what's so, so at a high level, the biggest company, the next 1015 years in the world will be human, like AI powered humanoids. That like, that's for sure going to happen.”
Adcock predicts Figure will be valued higher than Cruise and Waymo
“I happen to think this business is probably valued bigger than Cruise and Waymo, which are like, these are a thirty billion dollar free revenue companies.”
Adcock: Figure will deploy commercial robots with major brands within 24 months
“And I think we can do these over the next like 24 months. We'll have robots in commercial. Applications with like some of the world's biggest brands.”
Adcock: Humanoid home robots will eventually cost several hundred dollars monthly
“We're seeing here is we're seeing the ability to get these robots over time with a high enough volumes cheaper than like a mid price card. And then if that robot can last four or five years before it's fully depreciated the cost should be pretty affordable for…”
Adcock: Enterprise demand for functional humanoid robots is almost unbounded
“I I've never seen a business like this where we walk in and they're like, we'll buy a million of them if you could do this. And so the demand is like, I would think almost unbounded.”
Adcock: Figure deploys in industrial settings to prepare for consumer homes
“We're going to BMW, we're going to these industrial settings, but we want to be in the home. Like, if we could be in the home today, like, home robots, we would do that. We are using the commercialization, industrialization industry as a way to get us ready an…”
Adcock: Warehouses face 15% daily absenteeism and up to 150% annual turnover
“So we walk into these warehouses, manufacturing, retail, whatever, and we walk in and they're telling us that 15% of employees don't show up every day to work. They're saying they have two to three percent weekly attrition, 50 to 150% annual turnover.”
Adcock: Figure employs 120 engineers and zero program managers
“We're a 120 engineers here. We have zero program managers.”
Adcock: Multidisciplinary engineering teams must ban acronyms and internal jargon
“We try not to use acronyms and a software-purpose person that writes firmware, an electromagnetics person that builds, like, a rotor stator for electric motor, like, Those folks don't understand those other disciplines. Generally. So they need to communicate w…”
Adcock: Shipping high-quality humanoid robots will take Figure several more years
“We need to go out now and like prove that we can actually ship really high quality product, which is going to take us, you know, several more years from here.”
Sam Parr: Figure raised $600M at a $2.5B–$3B valuation
“I think they raised six hundred million dollars at a two and a half or three billion dollar valuation, I think.”
Adcock: If I Only Wanted Money, I Would Stay in Software
“Like, I think if it was just about money, I think I'd be basically probably back in software. So I think going and doing these projects I'm working on now are just probably the surest path to losing everything.”
Adcock: I took out a second mortgage to fund Figure
“I think it's even worse. Like we, I had a second mortgage on my house to go through it.”
Adcock nearly went personally bankrupt funding Figure in 2022
“I basically almost went personally bankrupt the last year of figure.”
Adcock paid $100,000 for the figure.ai domain
“We bought figure.ai for a hundred grand, and then we bought cover for a few tens of thousands of dollars.”