why aren't all 92 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Saylor: Bitcoin Is the Greatest Corporate Treasury Asset of Our Lifetimes
“Bitcoin is an exploding asset class. It's really a, it's the greatest treasury reserve asset of our lifetimes, and it's the solution to every company's treasury problem.”
Opinion
Yanowitz: The best way for Bitcoin to really work is US collapse
“The best way for Bitcoin to really work is for the U S to collapse.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2034
Pompliano: Bitcoin will protect corporate purchasing power better than cash over 10-20 years
“I think it is riskier for a company to sit with five hundred million dollars in US dollar cash on their balance sheet than five hundred million dollars worth of Bitcoin. And the reason being that or maybe the one clarifier is if you have a long-term oriented p…”
Opinion
Dan Held: Claims that Tether pumps Bitcoin's price are completely unfounded
“People hypothesize like Tether is being used to pump Bitcoin. I think that's completely unfounded. It was based on a University of Texas research report, which I don't even know if you could call it fucking research, but it was like a research report where the…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Maples: Decentralized cloud societies will eventually function like future nation-states
“What I think happens at the limit is that all of these different cloud cultures are like their own societies.
And so right now the main, main organizing principle of society is the nation state, which is also an economies of scale centric model.
Right.
But if …”
Insight
Saylor: Companies should convert cash, debt, and equity into Bitcoin
“So the big idea here is you want to fix any company, sweep all the cash flows into Bitcoin, convert the treasury into Bitcoin. Borrow against your future cash flows in dollars. Convert that into Bitcoin. Finance all your fixed assets in dollars. Convert that i…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Saylor: Bitcoin will become a $10T primary global treasury reserve asset
“You know, people that understand Bitcoin think it's going to grow to become the 10 trillion dollar asset that gold is, and then it's going to replace negative yielding sovereign debt and then corporate debt and ultimately it will become the primary treasury re…”
Insight
Saylor: Converting Corporate Cash to Bitcoin Turns Liabilities Into Assets
“So if you take a company with cash and you invest in Bitcoin, you have invested, you have converted a liability to an asset.”
Assertion Contradicted
Silk Road Founder Made Millions of Dollars a Day
“Next thing you know, he's making millions and millions and millions of dollars a day as the biggest drug dealer on the internet.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shaan Puri: Wall Street adoption makes Bitcoin impossible for governments to ban
“Once you do that, you can't unwind it. So once everybody owns it in their ETFs or their retirement accounts, what are they going to do? You can't, it's too embedded in the system at that point. You can't like, you can't rip it out. It's tentacles are too deep.”
Prediction Held up
Pompliano: Bitcoin price will probably rise as halving cuts supply amid ETF demand
“The Bitcoin halving is coming, and that's just when the daily incoming supply, the number of Bitcoin that get created each day, is gonna get cut in half, from 900 Bitcoin to 450.
So like, I always joke, if you went to Economics one-on-one class, supply and de…”
Prediction Partly held up
Pompliano: Solana will outperform Bitcoin and Ethereum this bull market
“I think Solana is going to go up a lot.
It's going to go up a lot more than Bitcoin.
I think it's going to go up a lot more than Ethereum in this specific bull market.
Cause it's a smaller market cap.
There's a lot of energy and excitement around it and all th…”
Disclosure
Haque put his entire net worth into a leveraged Bitcoin long
“I grabbed all the money I had. It was a couple of thousand dollars and I, well, I didn't just buy Bitcoin. I was like, the degenerate in me, I was like, okay, let me try and maximize this opportunity. So I went on, people know BitMEX. I went leverage long on B…”
Opinion
Sam Parr: 90% of Web3 and NFTs are 'total bullshit' and scams
“I think that 90% of the rest of the stuff is a complete scam. I think NFTs are, for the most part, total bullshit. I think Web Three, for the most part, is total bullshit. And I think that the people who entered into that space oftentimes are horrible entrepre…”
Prediction Partly held up
Luckey: Bitcoin will reach around $100,000 and then stabilize
“My prediction in 2013 was that Bitcoin will go to about a 100,000 dollars and then stabilize. I'm sticking with it. I think it'll get there. I'm not sure that it in particular has the appropriate utility to reach a higher store of value.”
Assertion Partly supported
Al-Naji: DeSo raised 5,000 BTC via 44,000 automated transactions before incorporating
“You know, that 5000 Bitcoin I mentioned all that money actually came in before there was any corporate entity set up to do anything. And so essentially the way it worked was the blockchain was running, and if you sent Bitcoin to this treasury wallet the blockc…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Balaji: Startup Cities in 2021 Are the Analog of 2010 Bitcoin
“Obviously when I said 2000, tech companies, 20 tens, crypto protocols, 20, 20 startup cities, 20 thirties, network states, that's sort of when that exponential starts, right? What is the analog of Bitcoin in 2010? It's startup cities in 2021.”
Opinion
Balaji: Bitcoin and mathematical economics defeated traditional Nobel laureate economists
“Scientific economics has been defeated by mathematical economics that say all these Nobel laureates, winners of the Nobel prize in economic sciences, all went and denounced Bitcoin in different ways. It can't work. It won't work. It shouldn't work. It should b…”
Disclosure
Saylor: MicroStrategy's Two Strategies Are Selling Software and Holding Bitcoin
“The business has two strategies, and the first strategy is we sell business intelligence software to our customers, and the second strategy is we acquire and hold Bitcoin. That is the business.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2041
Saylor: MicroStrategy's Bitcoin will generate more value than software operations over 20 years
“The investment income for sure.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Marini: Naval Ravikant predicted Bitcoin would reach $1M when trading under $1,000
“I remember early days, Bitcoin, you know, was trading under a thousand dollars, and I said to Naval, so how big does this get? And he said, I said, what's the price of Bitcoin? He said, a million. And I said, a million? It's only at like, you know, 800. And I …”
Opinion
Currier: Bitcoin is purely a meme coin driven by belief network effects
“Bitcoin is just purely a, Bitcoin's a meme coin. We just all believe in it.”
Disclosure
Bitcoin and Nvidia stock are VC Sheel Mohnot's largest personal assets
“Actually, looking at my assets, it's probably Bitcoin number one, Nvidia number two, and then like, the house that I live in number three.”
Opinion
MicroStrategy's debt-fueled Bitcoin acquisition strategy is not a risk-free free lunch.
“There is no strategy that is risk-free. There is no free lunch. And I think that right now, the entire narrative is about how this is a free lunch, how this is a free money glitch, and I don't believe that.”
Assertion Supported
MicroStrategy holds nearly 400,000 Bitcoin and has outperformed the entire S&P 500.
“They've basically acquired almost 400,000 Bitcoin.
they've outperformed every company in the S&P 500.
And last week alone, it saw one hundred and thirty six billion dollars of trading volume.”
Assertion Supported
Shaan Puri: Peter Todd was only 23 when Bitcoin was released
“When Bitcoin, when the Bitcoin paper was released, Peter Todd would have only been something like 23 years old.”
Opinion
Shaan Puri: The theory that Peter Todd is Satoshi is compelling
“So I don't know if this is the guy or not, but it is probably the most. It's one of the most compelling things. And it's funny. It's being so discredited by the community. So either I'm missing something which is entirely possible, or it's sort of wishful thin…”
Insight
Shaan Puri: Bitcoin is a savings technology designed to keep you rich
“The way I look at it is Bitcoin's a savings technology, so people use, people think Bitcoin's gonna make them rich. Actually, the true purpose of Bitcoin is a store value, meaning it's meant to keep you rich.”
Disclosure
Pompliano sold all of his Facebook equity compensation to buy Bitcoin
“Well, I sold it. And bought Bitcoin.”
Opinion
Shah: The odds of Balaji's $1M Bitcoin bet hitting are very low
“If I were a betting person, I would not bet that the odds are what do you think they are? Could happen, but nowhere near the probability that that he's suggesting.”
Opinion
Wilkinson: Bitcoin is currency trading and speculation, not productive business investing
“And I think that Bitcoin is currency trading, right? Like just buy great businesses, do the thing, you know, and I think everyone is just speculating on this stuff and there's a ton of fascinating arguments for it and I follow it, but I have just fully steered…”
Insight
Puri: Bitcoin's Security Is Proven by the Absence of Successful Hacks
“This is why people love Bitcoin. They're like, wow, if somebody could have hacked this or spoofed this or done a double spend, There is a literally like half a trillion dollar prize for the taking. And because it hasn't, that just shows you how secure this is.…”
Opinion
Puri: Hal Finney best fits the profile of Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto
“There's really no evidence of the existing evidence that's there. This is kind of like speculative data points you have, how Finney's fits the story in my worldview the best. So I think it's him.”
Assertion Supported
Puri: Bitcoin adoption is pacing faster than mobile phones and the internet
“And if you look at mobile phone adoption and internet adoption, Bitcoin is on a faster pace than both of those.”
Insight
Puri: Viral Bitcoin laser eyes act as religious identifiers signaling community membership
“Bitcoin in so many ways is a religion, and this is just yet another, like, you know, religious mark. Basically, you know, this is the yarmulke. This is the thing you wear that, that says, hey, I'm a part of this religion. And you know, putting it in the profil…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shaan Puri: Bitcoin and Ethereum created more individual billionaires than any company
“Crypto probably, Bitcoin is probably, Bitcoin plus Ethereum has probably created more individual billionaires than any other project, right?”
Opinion
Held: Bitcoin Is Built to Disrupt Central Banking, Not Visa or PayPal
“Bitcoin wasn't here to disrupt a Visa or PayPal. Bitcoin is here to disrupt the existing financial system and central banking.”
Opinion
Dan Held: Satoshi did not invent Bitcoin, he Frankensteined existing technologies
“Bitcoin wasn't a new innovation. It just kind of Frankensteined all these other innovations together, and that's how Satoshi built Bitcoin.”
Assertion Supported
Sean Puri: 2012 Bitcoin Investment Outperformed Coinbase Seed Round by $280M
“So you invested a 100,000 dollars in the seed round of Coinbase. That's worth two hundred twenty million dollars on this day today, because it goes public. Now, if you had invested in Bitcoin, same time, Bitcoin at, in that same month was trading at 12 dollars…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Metakovan turned a $5,000 early Bitcoin investment into over $1 billion
“The guy who bought the Beeple artwork for whatever, sixty nine million dollars, something like that. I might be mixing it up, but you know, meet Kovan, that's his handle. ... He invested 5000 dollars into Bitcoin and is worth over a billion dollars based on wh…”
Disclosure
Saylor: MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Cost Basis Is $24,000 With Permanent Capital
“Well, we have permanent capital, so it doesn't make a difference to us, right?
Like right now, for example, we have a three billion dollar investment gain.
So if you cut Bitcoin in half, we would still have an investment gain, right?
I mean, our basis is 24,00…”
Prediction Held up
Shaan Puri: More companies will put treasury reserves in Bitcoin within a year
“It's likely that there are more companies out there and it'll take them six months to a year to make this move, but they will take a portion of their treasury reserves and they'll move it into Bitcoin.”
Disclosure
Saylor: MicroStrategy bought $2.2B in Bitcoin and holds over $5B
“No we bought 2.2000000000 worth of Bitcoin. We own about five, a bit more than five billion, depending upon the day.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Saylor: MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Strategy Greatly Improved Recruiting and Retention
“It's been great for retention, and it's been great for recruiting.
We can get, we get people, first of all, the company's brand has been amped up by a factor of a thousand.
I mean, a lot more people know us now.”
Assertion Supported
Shaan Puri: MicroStrategy holds $5B in Bitcoin against a $7B market cap
“They own five billion dollars of Bitcoin. The company's worth seven billion dollars”
Disclosure
Braziel bought Mt. Gox bankruptcy claims at $80 per Bitcoin
“The original trade, Bitcoin, was at about 300 dollars, and we were buying the claims for about 80 dollars per Bitcoin.”
Assertion Supported
Puri: Anthony Pompliano raised $750M via SPAC for a Bitcoin strategy
“So our friend Pomp, Anthony, they SPAC'd a company, and the company's goal was to do the kind of Michael Saylor playbook, which is, it's a Bitcoin acquisition and finance company, and so what they're doing is they raise, I think, seven hundred fifty million do…”
Assertion Partly supported
Bitfinex Hackers' Stolen $72M in Crypto Ballooned to $8.4B Peak
“They stole seventy two million dollars in crypto and then were trying to launder it, and every, they were the only two people on the entire internet who wanted the price of bitcoin to go down. And they had, every time they were trying to launder it would doubl…”